Preview: Cairns vs Melbourne - Round 20, NBL24

Thursday, February 15, 2024

For a whole host of reasons, this Cairns Taipans-Melbourne United matchup is a fascinating one.

Friday, February 16 at 7:30pm AEDT | Cairns Convention Centre

Watch: Live on ESPN via Kayo - International viewership details

Don't let the fact that this is the guaranteed regular season champions up against a team out of the Finals race detract you, for a whole host of reasons this Cairns Taipans-Melbourne United match up is a fascinating one.

On paper, with Melbourne locked into first place at 19-7 with two games to go in this final round and being guaranteed of the regular season championship no matter result, and you would think they might not have a lot to play for.

Then you look at Cairns who have now lost the past four matches to slip out of the Finals race at 11-16 with just one game remaining, you could be excused for thinking they don't have much motivation either.

However, in both cases there's no question both the Snakes and United have every reason to want to put in a good performance on Friday night in Far North Queensland.

There's also the fascinating form line of the two teams against one another with the Taipans clearly the team to give United the biggest concerns this season.

In fact, Cairns is the only team Melbourne has not defeated at least once in NBL24 with the Snakes beating United 115-103 back on December 3 at John Cain Arena. They backed that up winning 95-78 in Cairns on New Year's Eve.

Not only has Cairns won both meetings this season, but it's been by a combined 29 points with the Snakes scoring 210 points in those two games to put the usually rock solid Melbourne defence to the sword.

So there's that side of it where the Snakes can take out of the season the knowledge they beat the regular season champions all three times while Melbourne will be determined to not let that happen.

Then there's what is at stake for the two teams.

Sure, Cairns can't qualify for the Finals no matter the result, but losing on their home floor and with a five-game losing streak would be the last thing anyone at the Taipans would want.

Then for Melbourne, while they are locked into top spot no matter the result, this weekend is their last chance to play against a real opposition until the start of their Playoff Series which could be three weeks away.

There's no point in United taking it easy or resting anybody because they need these hit outs this weekend before having the FIBA break and then waiting for the Play-In Tournament to take place.

Cairns (11-16, 8th)
88-117 loss away to Perth
86-94 loss at home to Tasmania
71-88 loss away to Adelaide

Melbourne (19-7, 1st)
94-81 win at home to New Zealand
99-83 win at home to South East Melbourne
86-98 loss away to Sydney

Sam Waardenburg
Should he be fit to play, he's going to have a mighty key role to play firstly in helping the Taipans be competitive against United, and then to give them the chance of finishing the season with a victory.

What he showed in less than three quarters last Saturday in Perth was exciting with the second-year big man finding his shooting touch on his way to 19 points in less than 20 minutes with 3/4 shooting from behind the three-point line.

It was his best shooting performance of the season and a sign of what a bright future he has and why he will be such a cornerstone of the Taipans moving forward.

That's the good news. The bad news was that he left the court late in the third quarter and didn’t return because of feeling a tight Achilles. Now it's a wait and see game to see if he's able to run out for the Snakes in front of the Orange Army on Friday night.

Provided Waardenburg is able to play, he's going to have his work cut out for him going up against United's twin tower attack of Jo Lual-Acuil Jr and Ariel Hukporti.

That's going to be a tough night, but he also has the ability to stretch the defensive capabilities of the pair by stepping out to shoot and with his mobility. Provided he is out there, he is going to have a big say in how well the Snakes compete with United.

"I still could have played defence a lot better and I didn’t rebound that well in the time that I was out there. There was a few possessions where I could have played Bryce on a switch better including one when I was backing off and he hit the three. So I definitely have to look back on film and see the areas that I can keep improving on," – Waardenburg said after last Saturday's loss in Perth.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Hey, look! It's Slam Waardenburg ?<br><br>Catch the action live on ESPN via Kayo ? <a href="https://t.co/qn36p5w8g8">pic.twitter.com/qn36p5w8g8</a></p>— NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1756244894694150636?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 10, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Jo Lual-Acuil Jr
The Melbourne United center has been in some ominous form since returning to the line-up and with the confidence he's playing with, he'll be looking to put on a show against the Taipans on Friday night.

After missing a couple of games back through the middle of January, Lual-Acuil Jr has been a man possessed in his four games back averaging 19.5 points and 8.0 rebounds a game.

That included 33 points and 13 rebounds in his first game back, also in Queensland, against the Brisbane Bullets while he also had 19 points and 11 boards in another double-double last Sunday in the win against the New Zealand Breakers.

With his size, shooting touch and ability to make plays with back to the basket, rolling to the rack or stepping out to shoot, he's quite the tough cover and has the potential to be a dominant presence any time he steps onto the floor.

His center combination with Ariel Hukporti is also becoming one of Melbourne's great strengths while his defensive impact his vastly underrated, but his rim protection and ability to change shots is another trait of his game always improving.

He gives a lot of that credit for the defence he can play at the rim to the work especially of Shea Ili on the perimeter, but either way he has the ability to play match-winner for United again come Friday night.

"The difference for us is that we have this guy named Shea Ili. He should be Defensive Player of the Year, I think it's pretty criminal that he hasn’t won one yet. It's time, it's pretty obvious who the best defensive player. He leads us a lot and he and LT are kind of like the barometers on the team, and when Shili is just up and in, and IC gets up and in, Delly is up and in, then as bigs we don't want to let them down for all that effort that they put in. That just gives us pace and easy transitions points the other way," – Lual-Acuil Jr said after last Sunday's win against the New Zealand Breakers.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">JLA hit his man with the too small ?<br><br>Catch the action live on ESPN via Kayo Freebies | 10 Peach & 10 Play | Sky Sport in NZ ? <a href="https://t.co/GXWa0ZpLbf">pic.twitter.com/GXWa0ZpLbf</a></p>— NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1756538585430310929?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 11, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Patrick Miller vs Shea Ili/Matthew Dellavedova
If the Cairns Taipans are to be a chance of scoring a third win over Melbourne United this season to end their campaign on a high on Friday night, then quite simply Patrick Miller has to put on his Superman cape and lead them to the victory.

The Snakes are potentially going to be down on manpower with Bul Kuol now sidelined with a foot injury robbing them of their talisman and perhaps most important player given his ball handling skills, defensive prowess and leadership he provides on the floor.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Patrick Miller is HUSTLING ?<br><br>Catch the third quarter live on ESPN via Kayo ? <a href="https://t.co/ukyyQlZs7b">pic.twitter.com/ukyyQlZs7b</a></p>— NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1752993998354956748?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 1, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Sam Waardenburg remains under a cloud too after feeling a tight Achilles after putting up 19 points in less than three quarters last Saturday in Perth while only time will tell if Adam Forde has a role to play for the seemingly out of favour Tahjere McCall and Sam Mennenga.

All the signs point to Miller being the man to potentially deliver a match-winning performance for the Snakes, perhaps something reminiscent of the 42-point outburst in the last game of the season two years ago from McCall in similar circumstances.

In the two games so far this season against United that the Taipans have won, Miller has delivered a combined 63 points and 15 assists so he has already proven that it's an opponent he enjoys playing against.

Having games of 32 points and 10 assists, and 31 and five will give him confidence coming up against Melbourne once again, but it will also serve for added motivation for the United backcourt to not let that happen again.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Lockdown Ili ?<br><br>NBL analyst Peter Hooley believes <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnited?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@MelbUnited</a>'s defensive stopper, Shea Ili, is the front-runner for the Best Defensive Player award ?<br><br>Listen to NBL Now: <a href="https://t.co/uyEBuhY1BO">https://t.co/uyEBuhY1BO</a> <a href="https://t.co/5y0xOxwnNa">pic.twitter.com/5y0xOxwnNa</a></p>— NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1757961956722668029?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 15, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That will mean it will be a tag-team effort from United pair Shea Ili and Matthew Dellavedova up against Miller. Whether or not they are able to quell his influence or not will go a long way to determining the end result.

The glaring stat is that the Taipans have beaten United in both meetings between the two teams this season despite Melbourne being the team guaranteed of top spot and Cairns out of the Finals race.

Cairns beat Melbourne by a combined 210-181 in the two games the teams have played so far this season which makes the Snakes the team that United have had the most trouble with for NBL24.

Even beyond this season and the Taipans have won four of their last five games against United, which dates back to last year where they pushed the Sydney Kings to three games in the Playoffs while Melbourne narrowly missed the Finals altogether.

Gettyimages 1711403198
Sam Mennenga.