Winning Ways: How each Playoff team can advance

The final four teams remaining in NBL24 are all set to slug it out starting Thursday night. Six teams have gone by the wayside, and all four remaining sides will fancy their chances of not only progressing through their Playoff Series', but taking home the title.

Peter Hooley has crunched the numbers from the regular season and - in Illawarra and Tasmania's cases - the Finals so far, and found reasons why each team left can progress to the Championship Series - and why they can't.

The NBL24 Finals continue on Thursday night with the first game of the series between Melbourne and Illawarra at 7:30pm AEDT, live on ESPN via Kayo Freebies, and 10 Play.

Perth and Tasmania start their battle on Friday at 9:30pm AEDT, live on ESPN via Kayo Freebies, 10 Peach and 10 Play.

Why they can win
Now that we are into a series, things start to heat up. The fact that Melbourne United never lost back-to-back games throughout the NBL24 regular season is mighty impressive and will go a long way to them getting it done. Adding to that, this team only lost at home three times over the campaign. If the Hawks want to progress past them, they’re going to have to either win two games in a row or beat United at home - if not both.

United have one of the deepest rosters in the competition and it’s a major reason for their success. In fact, due to injuries and other circumstances, United has 10 players averaging double-figure minutes on the season, with six of those scoring in double-digits. Throughout their stellar regular season, they had someone score more than 20 points in a game 18 times, and that scoring load was shared between seven different players.

That kind of depth becomes so important in a series and we have seen so many examples of that in recent history. Yet perhaps the biggest reason that they can get it done is their team defence. Led by the Damian Martin Trophy winner, Shea Ili, United led the league in defensive rating at 109 and held teams to under 88ppg (ranked 2^nd). That defence has led this team to holding teams to under 44 per cent shooting from the field, which leads the competition. With the Hawks having moments where they struggle to score the ball all through the season, that could be a red cape to this Melbourne bull.

Why they can't
Whilst United have been the benchmark this season and look primed for a Championship run, there may be some chinks in the armour. One thing we know about Finals is that every possession matters and every point matters, especially the free ones. Melbourne are the worst free throw shooting team in the league and have connected with just 69.8 per cent of shots from the charity stripe this season. Of their seven losses, just twice did they shoot above that number from the line.

Another potential issue that United will be looking to control in this series is keeping the Hawks off the offensive glass. In Melbourne’s losses, they gave up double-figure offensive rebounds to their opponent all but one time. The Hawks are the second-best team in the competition for crashing the offensive glass and have had single-figure numbers in that category just three times from their 28 games. For any basketball coach reading, what is the one thing teams look for when they secure an offensive rebound?

Kick out threes.

The Hawks may have had their struggles at times from outside, but the weapons are certainly there, with Tyler Harvey, Hyunjung Lee and company ready to fire.

And for those who are wondering how United will come out after such a long break, five of their eight losses did come from at least a week break between games. That includes returning from the first FIBA break with a home loss to Cairns.

Chris Goulding.

Why they can win
It would be easy to answer this simply and say 'Bryce Cotton'.

However, the Wildcats' offence has been very efficient from Round 6 onwards, and has led them to be the second-highest team in the NBL at 93.9 points per game. That number is incredibly impressive considering this team averaged just 86ppg through their first seven games of the season. In fact, in the remaining 21 games Perth averaged 96.4ppg which led the competition in that span. It’s also interesting to note that the Wildcats do the most damage in the first and fourth quarters of the game compared to the middle two, where they are 8^th and 9^th in scoring respectively.

One of the major reasons for this offensive efficiency has been their ability to look after the ball. Perth ranks first in the league for fewest turnovers at just 10.8, and had 10 games of single-figure turnovers, and they coincidentally won nine of those matches. Another reason for their offensive efficiency is that the Wildcats led the league in steals with 8.1 per game, which they converted into 15.9 points per game (ranking 2^nd behind New Zealand). 

And of course, the Wildcats have the four-time MVP in Bryce Cotton on their side, who has seemingly enjoyed playing against Tasmania in his career. Cotton averages 21.5 points per game in the eight matches against the JackJumpers, shooting at 47 per cent from the field, 42 per cent from three and 90 per cent from the line.

Why they can't
In the last six games of the regular season, Perth won just eight total quarters heading into their long break. Whilst form from a few weeks ago doesn’t mean much considering the time between games – it’s a different script compared to how the JackJumpers are entering this game.

The last six games consisted of losses to Illawarra twice, New Zealand and Tasmania, whilst their wins were against the Phoenix and Taipans. Of the 8/24 total quarters won it includes four by two points or less and three drawn.

To look even deeper, it was the last 7:48 of the game against Cairns that looked like the Perth team who we all saw for the majority of NBL24. They locked up defensively and scored however they wanted on the other end and ended up outscoring the Taipans 33-6 in that span.

Outside of that game against Cairns, the three losses had some interesting numbers to look at. Over those games Perth shot 16-68 from three - just 23.5 per cent - and in both losses in Round 20 the Wildcats were outrebounded by a total of 36 boards.

Jordan Usher.

Why they can win
Tasmania is the hottest team around, having won five straight and six of their last seven. They also haven’t just been winning these games, they’ve been dominating with an average winning margin of 18 across those six matches. The JackJumpers seem to be firing on all cylinders right now and could have peaked at the perfect moment to chase a championship.

Throughout the regular season, they have led the league if an offensive rating (118.8), which is new territory for them considering their first two years in the NBL they finished 8^th and 6^th in that category. Their success on that end in NBL24 is largely due to them having the right pieces on the floor and all playing at a slower speed compared to the nine other teams and executing every time down the floor.

The JackJumpers have picked it up defensively in the last seven games, holding their opponents to just 81ppg, compared to 91ppg in the seven games before that. They are also the only team remaining to have three players averaging over 15ppg. They are a well-oiled machine right now and are currently the best outside shooting team in the league at 37.7 per cent from deep.

Tasmania also have a strange déjà vu moment potentially on their side as they head to Perth. If you remember back to the NBL22 finale to the regular season, Tasmania hosted Melbourne United who after halftime decided to rest their starters, as their ladder position was locked in and the game was meaningless. Tasmania did the opposite and then went into a Playoff Series with United and beat them in Game 3 on their home floor to advance to the Championship Series. Does lightning strike twice?

Why they can’t
Probably the biggest concern for Tasmania in this series would be their inability to lock down opposition guards on a consistent basis. Throughout the regular season there were seven players who average at least 20ppg against Tasmania and only one of those was a forward/center in Gary Clark. Bryce Cotton is second on that list at 24.5ppg. Adding to that, Jordan Usher has also had success against the JackJumpers averaging 17 points in the three games he’s played against them.

The only potential issue will be what happens with Marcus Lee after his injury scare in the first minute last week. Will Magnay stepped up in a major way, with one of the most dominant performances of the year, but can he deliver that again if he’s called upon to play major minutes in this series. Magnay has only played more than 20 minutes seven times this entire regular season, including the 30 minutes he played last week. There’s no doubt he is the x-factor on this team, and whether he can get some quick rest whilst Lee is on the floor could go a long way into determining their success.

Will Magnay.

Why they can win
What Illawarra has done exceptionally well under Justin Tatum is collectively show up and have inputs from different players every single night. Look no further than the Play-In win over New Zealand when Justin Robinson clutched up and put the team on his back to get them over the line. Robinson became just the second player to shoot 14-14 from the line in a post-season game, and seems to be relishing his new role as a sparkplug of the bench. The other unsung hero in that win was 'Davo' Hickey, who made numerous momentum-swinging plays when the team needed it the most. Hickey was throwing his body on the floor, chasing down blocks and crashing the offensive glass all night, and it’s plays like that that can give the team an extra edge in a final.

In terms of numbers, what the Hawks have done better than most teams in crash the offensive glass hard and consistently. In fact, against New Zealand they had their second-best offensive rebounding percentage and those extra opportunities helped them come away with the win.

Similar to Tasmania, United are a defensive juggernaut and the game plan from Justin Tatum will be crucial. If he were to look at who has had success against United, he would be looking at the games against Cairns and how Tahjere McCall and Patrick Miller led their team to three wins. Eight players have averaged more than 19ppg against United in the regular season, and only one of those isn’t a guard. Sydney's DJ Hogg had 20 pooints in the single game he played against United. This is the opportunity for Tyler Harvey and Justin Robinson to take some pressure off Gary Clark and Sam Froling.

The last reason they can get it done is probably the biggest one and that’s the emotion of this fairytale story. They’re coming into this game as the underdogs and the energy they’ve been playing with over the last couple of months could be the extra edge they need to stun United.

Why they can't
The biggest concern for Illawarra is how well they implement their defensive strategy against a team loaded with offensive weapons. The Hawks were the best team all season at slowing down the MVP in Bryce Cotton, holding him to just 13pgg in three outings. They also did a terrific job mirroring that game plan against Parker Jackson-Cartwright on Monday night. However, that plan won’t work against Melbourne who have multiple players capable of putting up game-winning numbers. Do they pick their poison or try something different?

Another cause for concern is the current play of All-NBL First Team forward Gary Clark, who has looked a little off his best in the last three games. Yes, he had 21 points in their Seeding Qualifier defeat to Tasmania, but he was hampered by that lower leg injury that saw him finish 8-17 from the field with 10 attempts from the three. Clark had previously only attempted more than six threes three times in the 30 games he has played. It’s also worth highlighting that in the 15 wins the Hawks have, Clark has scored in double-figures in 13.

United also averaged 96.3ppg against Illawarra this season, which is a little concerning considering the Hawks have held teams to 85ppg in their 15 wins during NBL24. It’s not rocket science, but the Hawks defence will be the key for them in this series as they allow 94.5ppg in their 15 losses, with teams shooting 50 per cent from the field and 40 per cent from three.

Gary Clark.