Preview: Tasmania v Perth (Round 17)

When: 2pm (AEDT), Sunday 29 January, 2023
Where: MyState Bank Arena, Hobart
Broadcast: 10 Peach; 10 Play; ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ
LIVE SCORES & STATS

Who won last time?

Tasmania 85 (McVeigh 22, Magette 18, Doyle 15) d Perth 77 (Cotton 26, Wagstaff 13) – Round 6 at RAC Arena, Perth

Keen to avenge their Round 4 humiliation in Hobart, the Wildcats led from the first minute, surging 11 ahead in the second term and back out to eight in the third after a JackJumpers revival. But that’s where it stopped. Sparked by Jack McVeigh and Milton Doyle, Tassie unleashed a 38-16 barrage bridging the last break and cruised home to victory.

What happened last game?

The JackJumpers were hot from tip-off on Friday night, leading Sydney 25-14 after 10 minutes and racking up 38 points in the opening 15. They managed just six points in the next 10 minutes and the Kings ran roughshod over them at the other end. Perth’s first half was abominable from a defensive point of view, with only Bryce Cotton keeping them in the game, but they found some second-half bite to topple the Hawks and stay in the hunt.

What’s working?

The defence, at last – At half-time against Illawarra, the Wildcats’ points conceded in their previous six halves read 51, 48, 56, 61, 51, and 55. The Hawks then added 24 in the third term, before out of nowhere the 'Cats locked their visitors down to just eight in the final stanza, holding Tyler Harvey scoreless on 0/5 shooting, grabbing 80 per cent of available defensive rebounds and scoring 14 of their 25 points following steals or d-boards.

Not the defence, this time – Tasmania’s defence really is like a box of chocolates. They bullied Cairns into a grind, held the Kings to 14 in the opening term and then leaked 37 in the second period with their interior defence non-existent, giving up 11/11 inside the paint and 21 points in the opening half of the shot clock. Four turnovers didn’t help that, but sliding the feet and helping proactively are a must against the similarly fast-paced 'Cats.

What needs stopping?

Bryce Cotton – Perth have only averaged 74.5ppg in two meetings with Tassie, shooting 42 per cent from the field and 31 per cent from deep. Cotton broke those shackles last time though, racking up 26 points on 4/8 outside and 10/10 from the stripe. He’s now averaged an incredible 26.3ppg and 5.1apg in his past 12 contests while hitting 40 per cent from deep. He did play 38:29 on Friday night though, how much of an impact will that have on his legs?

Jacking Jumpers – Tasmania have scored 93 of their 188 points in this season series from beyond the arc, draining 15.5 triples per game at a blistering 48 per cent to outscore the 'Cats by 48 from outside. Jack McVeigh (7/14) and Josh Magette (7/15) have been the chief bombers, supported by Doyle (4/7), Matt Kenyon (4/8), Sean Macdonald (3/7) and Jarrad Weeks (2/2). Can Perth contain the penetration that creates so many good looks?

Who’s missing key men?

Tai Webster remains sidelined for the Wildcats with a hamstring injury, while Tasmania are expected to be at full strength.

Who’s matching up?

Milton Doyle v Luke Travers – After Tyler Harvey gave Perth the run around early, Travers was outstanding using his length to run him off the arc or contest. Doyle will happily be run right into his patented pull-up, and LT’s job will be to deter from the side or behind and make Milt finish in the paint. At the other end, Travers was a model of efficiency Friday with 11 points on five attempts, including 2/2 from deep, and more of the same is required.

Josh Magette v Corey Webster – While his value running the show can’t be understated, it’s been a rough shooting year for Magette, hitting 36 per cent from the field and 32 per cent from deep. He’s scored 14.5ppg at 50 per cent on Perth, and will again look to exploit their shaky backcourt D. He’ll get that back in spades from Webster though, who’s averaged 19.5ppg at a lights-out 55 per cent from three-point land over his past eight outings.

Jack McVeigh v Brady Manek – In Tasmania’s past three wins, McVeigh has averaged 20.3ppg on 10/15 shooting from beyond the arc. In two intervening losses, he’s managed just 9.5ppg on 2/7 for deep. Did someone say barometer? Perth have won four of their past five games. In the Ws, Manek averaged 18.8ppg and 8.5rpg. In the defeat, he had just eight points and two boards. He needs to get on the glass, the rest of his game will follow.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BRADY THAT WAS INSANE! ??? <a href="https://t.co/5MwQxbQ7es">pic.twitter.com/5MwQxbQ7es</a></p>&mdash; Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1618944799645777920?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 27, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

When Bryce Cotton was asked at what point he felt like he was going to have a huge night, he didn’t blink.

“When I woke up,” he said to laughter at the post-game press conference.

“That’s how I feel every game, it doesn’t always pan out that way, but that’s the mindset.”

That was, of course, after he had dropped 40 incredible points on Illawarra to move Perth up to fifth place and two wins away from a guaranteed playoff berth.

“That was a phenomenal performance,” coach John Rillie said.

“He understands the urgency and the point of the season we’re at, so in my shoes when you can rely and know what a guy’s mindset is for the big occasion it really helps and I think it gives our team confidence too.”

Listening to the groans and watching the limp as he left that presser, you know Cotton will have woken up sore on Saturday from his near full-game adventure, but he’s not worried about that.

“You fix your mind to whatever it is you need to do,” he said of Sunday’s crunch clash.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BC can really fly. ?<br><br>? Watch live on ESPN via Kayo &amp; Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/ATCLxAxflW">pic.twitter.com/ATCLxAxflW</a></p>&mdash; Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1618926022271053826?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 27, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Former Wildcats assistant coach Scott Roth isn’t counting on fatigue slowing the perennial MVP down either.

“They're got the best player in the world, I've said it many times, that’s not in the NBA,” he said.

“So when they walk on the floor they have a chance to beat you every single time with him.

“There’s a lot of things to take care of against them, they’ll be ready to go, I'm sure they’ll be quite fired up to come and play.”

Roth’s concerns will be around controlling the game to limit Perth’s ability to run, which opens up cracks that Cotton inevitably slithers into.

On Friday night, they got sped up by the Sydney Kings for the second time in a row, the aggressive defence turning the JackJumpers into impatient drivers rather than the calculated executioners they are at their best.

“We got quite stagnant offensively, the ball didn’t move as much as it was, we got stuck on one side of the floor and got a little hungry on that side of the floor and probably over-handled the ball a little bit,” Roth said.

“That led to the thing you don’t want to do against them which is early shots and quick shots which will feed their transition and (allows) their one-on-one players to get in the open floor.”

The JackJumpers had seven assists and seven offensive rebounds in the opening 15 minutes as they racked up 38 points, but just six and nine respectively in the final 25 minutes as they scored just 39 more.

“It’s hard to offensive rebound when you just jam the ball in there on the first side and not take predictable shots, I think that’s what took away from it after the first quarter,” Will Magnay said.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Big man goes bang ?<br><br>Watch live on ESPN via Kayo &amp; Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/lw6Kyg6glX">pic.twitter.com/lw6Kyg6glX</a></p>&mdash; Tasmania JackJumpers ? (@JackJumpers) <a href="https://twitter.com/JackJumpers/status/1618904578761846785?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 27, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“We were taking good shots and that leads to offensive rebounding opportunities. Kells had four, Fab had three, we had 16 as a team.

“That’s a good number we want to live by, but I think the majority of those came in the first quarter, so we need to keep that throughout the game.”

The offensive efficiency of both teams – Perth average 92.8ppg at 46 per cent from the field and 37 per cent from three; Tasmania 84.5ppg at 43 and 35 per cent – suggests the JackJumpers must own the glass to win this contest.

They are +18 in the possession game in two meetings with Perth, and coach Rillie knows the effort must be more consistent from his men this time around.

The 'Cats grabbed 79 per cent of available d-boards in the second half against the Hawks, a commitment that must be repeated regardless of Tai Webster’s absence and the short turnaround to get to the other side of the continent.

Rillie also knows a loss could leave the Wildcats needing to beat Sydney and Cairns in the final round to avoid back-to-back post-season misses.

“Our guys will understand what that game means to us and our season and quite frankly, we've been very bad against the JackJumpers, so if we don’t come with a great pride and zest for that game, it’s going to be really hard the rest of the way,” Rillie said.

“It is a monster game. Bryce talked about our second half effort (against Illawarra), if we don’t bring that from the get-go it is going to be a long afternoon. This game means a lot to the Perth Wildcats and where we finish this season.”