Preview: Cairns v Illawarra (Round 15)

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Friday 13 January, 2023

Where: Cairns Convention Centre

Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ

Who won last time?

Cairns 96 (Scott 18, Hogg 16, Ayre 15) d Illawarra 89 (Froling 25, Harvey 21, Hickey 14) – Round 13 at WIN Entertainment Centre, Wollongong

Illawarra started fast in Round 13 but Ben Ayre caught fire with eight points in 90 seconds to finish the first term. That run sparked a 29-2 run that had the game looking like a procession. However, as has become their trademark, the young Hawks fought back behind captains Tyler Harvey and Sam Froling, and a Davo Hickey-inspired 19-6 burst across three-quarter-time put them in front. They were still within a bucket in the final two minutes, but Tahjere McCall and DJ Hogg made the clutch plays to guide the Taipans home.

What happened last game?

Cairns made it 4-0 without Keanu Pinder by outlasting a depleted Phoenix side, but it was not a performance the league’s number one ranked defensive team would be proud of. Instead, it was the offensive brilliance of McCall and Shannon Scott that got the job done. Illawarra were also impressive offensively against the JackJumpers, but it was once again the familiar tale of a praiseworthy effort coming up just short against a quality opponent.

What’s working?

Hawks stars – You know the first two names on every opponent’s scouting sheet are Tyler Harvey and Sam Froling, yet somehow this pair continue to get it done. Over the past four outings they’ve combined to average 44ppg, 12.5rpg and 6.5apg to lead a Hawks offence that has scored 92.5ppg despite being without Peyton Siva and Michael Frazier. When Harvey and Froling link up for ball-screens and dribble hand-offs it’s very hard to stop.

Snakes guards – How would Cairns run up points without Pinder? Without a problem it seems. They've averaged 95.8ppg in his absence by taking whatever the defence has given them. The catalysts have been McCall and Scott, who combined for 35.5ppg at 53 per cent and 10.5apg in the four-game win streak. Impressively the pair have shot 14/29 from the arc, but they didn’t have things all their own way against Illawarra’s pressure in Round 13 and coughed the ball up nine times.

What needs stopping?

The short roll – When Sam Froling gets the ball in the middle cylinder good things happen for the Hawks, as his eight assists to complement 21 points at 61 per cent against Tasmania attests. Froling has remarkably dished 20 dimes in the past four games as opponents key on Harvey coming off ball-screens and dribble-handoffs, and Cairns need to figure out what they're prepared to give up so their weakside defenders can tag the roller and limit Sam’s influence.

Second-term d-board blues – In Round 10 the Hawks led 27-16 at quarter-time and by 16 points after less than 12 minutes. In Round 13 they were in front 24-15 after eight minutes. However, the Taipans have dominated both second quarters, outscoring Illawarra 58-43 while pulling in 11  offensive boards at 52 per cent. They’ve grabbed just 13  offensive rebounds at 19 per cent across the other 70 minutes of the season series, which Illawarra has won 147-140.

Who’s missing key men?

Keanu Pinder remains on the sidelines for Round 15, while the Hawks are again without Peyton Siva and Michael Frazier who will be out for the rest of the season.

Who’s matching up?

Tahjere McCall & Bul Kuol v Tyler Harvey – Harvey has scored 21 points in both match-ups with Cairns this season, but the Snakes’ athletic defenders have held him to 36 per cent shooting - including 8/23 inside the arc. He’s hit 10/19 from deep in his past two games though meaning the Taipans’ guards need to stay on his hip, their bigs need to be ready to switch out at any moment, and their help defencemust stay ready to rotate proactively and shut off his interior feeds.

DJ Hogg v Deng Deng – Hogg has spun 19.5ppg at 64 per cent inside and 35 per cent outside against the Hawks this season but those numbers belie his true impact. He scored nine points in the final seven minutes of the Taipans’ double-overtime win and had six points and two dimes in the final five minutes in Round 13. He’s got an important battle with Deng, who scored 35 points at 75 per cent inside and 60 per cent outside in 47 minutes the past two games.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">DJ showing off his range with BACK-TO-BACK triples! ?<br><br>Watch LIVE on ESPN ? <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/OrangeArmy?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#OrangeArmy</a> <a href="https://t.co/5tE12Bs1qw">pic.twitter.com/5tE12Bs1qw</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1605137570462986240?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 20, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

There has been nothing but respect coming from Adam Forde in the Illawarra’s Hawks direction this season, starting with the Round 10 double-overtime classic.

“You could see the disappointment in their faces because they played hard,” he said post-game.

That’s not a 2-12 team in my mind, that was a tough team that’s on a three-game, six-day trip and we were just able to hold out and close it out in the end.”

Nothing had changed after the Round 13 clash in the Gong went down to the wire.

“You can see these guys are really committed and they're just a couple of pieces away from being in the winner’s column,” he said.

“It’s great that we got the win on the road, it’s great that we got the win without KP, but we didn’t walk into this place thinking it was going to be a pushover ... they're a dangerous team.”

He perhaps saved the most love for Sam Froling, who dismantled the league’s best statistical defence to the tune of 25 points at 55 per cent, eight o-boards and 13 in total along with five assists.

“Froling is a good player and we knew they were going to run the offence a lot through him and Harvey,” Forde said.

“He’s a good player, he’s a great human being with an awesome future in front of him.”

While Froling is a quietly spoken young man who started this season reluctant to assert himself on games, there is a confidence underneath that is driving his rise to stardom, producing 19.3ppg, 9.7rpg and 3.5apg in his past six outings, five of them against top six sides.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Just beautiful basketball ? <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HawkNation?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#HawkNation</a> <a href="https://t.co/GSHaiLokr4">pic.twitter.com/GSHaiLokr4</a></p>&mdash; Illawarra Hawks Basketball (@illawarrahawks) <a href="https://twitter.com/illawarrahawks/status/1612737788818100225?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 10, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Those numbers, produced across a full season, would have him at the pointy end of the MVP race, and it’s been a lot of work to get to this point.

“I'm pretty confident in my ability,” he said after torching Tasmania.

“It’s a reflection of the work I've put in since Jake first got here with Goorj and we worked for six months before the season started, when the season kept getting pushed back that first year.

“It’s been a build-up and a build-up and I've known my abilities, and now I get to use everything I have.”

Froling’s development is just one of many good stories emerging from the ashes of Illawarra’s injury-stricken season.

Dan Grida is perhaps the most feel-good of them all, his 16-point, five rebound performance against the JJs showing signs of his best.

“I think he’s gotten better each game and the confidence is growing,” Froling said.

“He missed a couple early and then to start that second half he shoots it and sticks it and for him that’s the step for him to keep hitting those shots and finishing like he did.

“As this goes he’s going to keep getting better, the athlete he is, we know what kind of player he can be, and over (the rest of) this year he’s got the opportunity to play significant minutes and grow into that.”

Then there is Deng Deng, who has scored 35 points at 67 per cent in 47 minutes the past two games.

“His maturity level is high, his commitment to this thing is high,” coach Jackomas said.

“As a veteran guy in the league, he hasn’t played a lot but he’s been around a long time and he’s an older guy, he really allows you to coach him hard, which makes my life easier.

“I don’t have to manage him, and now he’s reaping the rewards. He came back (to Illawarra) with a bit of belief this could happen.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">DENG FROM DEEEEP! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HawkNation?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#HawkNation</a> <a href="https://t.co/B8xLSnjyTU">pic.twitter.com/B8xLSnjyTU</a></p>&mdash; Illawarra Hawks Basketball (@illawarrahawks) <a href="https://twitter.com/illawarrahawks/status/1612732727295627267?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 10, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The most important development, however, is this young team never quitting, playing harder for longer and competing at NBL level for 40 minutes.

“We’re starting to put consistent efforts in, we play consistently now,” Jackomas said.

“At the beginning of the year, with the same line-up, we’d have a good game in Perth and then come back and play New Zealand and get smacked.

“Right now we've started to actually put, even though we’re not winning we are consistently coming in … I’d rather be consistent than all over the place.

“We want to win, we don’t just want to be the team that has a gallant effort. We are really trying to win and I hope everybody understands that.”

The entire league understands this Hawks team is going to pinch a win at some point, and nobody wants it to be against them.

Cairns can’t afford to be that victim if they want to cement a place in the top two, and wins over Illawarra and New Zealand this weekend will have them 2.5 games clear in second spot.

Coach Adam Forde is confident they won’t slip up with Tahjere McCall leading the way against Harvey at the defensive end, backed up by Bul Kuol and Shannon Scott.

“It’s the intangibles that (McCall) brings, we put him on Harvey in Illawarra, we put him on Sobey, then we put him on Creek. He can defend multiple positions and his energy is contagious amongst the group,” Forde said.

“It’s really cool to know that you can put Tahj on a target, Shannon’s a great defender as well and then you’ve got Bul who can take someone else and it’s relentless, opposition teams will feel that.”