R8 Preview: New Zealand Breakers vs Melbourne United

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Friday 5 March

Where: John Cain Arena, Melbourne

Broadcast: ESPN; Sky Sports NZ; SBS On Demand; Twitch

The last time
New Zealand 90 (Hopson 22, Delany 14, Loe 14) d Melbourne 68 (Long 18, Goulding 13, Trimble 12), Round 14, 2019/20, Spark Arena, Auckland

This clinical beatdown was part of a three-game skid that proved the catalyst for turning Melbourne’s season around. The Breakers’ disciplined defence held them to 38 per cent shooting, 9 o-boards from 38 misses and 14 assists to 16 turnovers. At the other end, Scotty Hopson was the star as New Zealand executed to perfection, taking 31 attempts inside the paint, 27 outside the arc and just six from midrange.

The now
With Lamar Patterson out it’s become the ‘Websters show’, and with unbridled access to high ball-screens they’ve embraced midrange to force adjustments from opposition defences. It has been an effective bluff, scoring 14 points a game from middies at a quality 55 per cent and opening up all sorts of plays at the rim and the arc. Perhaps more important has been NZ’s discipline to avoid fouling, force shots over a hand and clean the glass.

Melbourne just keep making opponents miss – forcing a league-low 42 per cent shooting – and keep cleaning up the mess, grabbing an outstanding 75 per cent of boards at their defensive end. United rank first in defensive rating, points allowed and blocked shots, and third in steals and turnovers forced, while allowing just 45 per cent shooting from inside the arc. To put it straight, this is an elite defensive team who know how to turn stops into scores.


The stats

 - Only one team has scored more than 90 points against United this season, who have kept their past three opponents to 78ppg at 39 per cent

 - Melbourne commit just 16.4 fouls per game, the fewest in the NBL. In Dean Vickerman’s first five seasons as a head coach his teams averaged 21.5 fouls and were top two on four occasions
 
 - New Zealand are +24 on free-throw attempts in their past two games, while they were -40 in their opening seven outings

- The Breakers have scored an average of 29.7 points in their past three opening terms, outscoring Sydney, Adelaide and Brisbane by an average of 17 points in the first 10 minutes


The key men

Shea Ili – Three weeks on the sidelines? No worries. Ili rolled out 12 points in 19 minutes on 4-of-6 from deep to be a game-changer against the Kings. Of course, it’s his defence that is most important to Melbourne, and his battle with Kiwi running mates Tai and Corey Webster – who have scored 140 points between them in NZ’s past three games – will be a barn-burner, with Ili’s ability to blow up screens critical to Melbourne avoiding rotations.

Colton Iverson – Blowing up screens is one thing, but when those picks are coming from the big body of Iverson is another altogether. His ability to stay out of foul trouble and play almost 30 minutes was critical against Brisbane, as he frees up the Websters like no other Breaker can. He biggest challenge on Friday will be defending Jock Landale and Jo Lual-Acuil without fouling or giving up open triples, with Jock landing 14 in his past seven games.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">? THINGS ARE HEATIN&#39; UP IN JCA! ?<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/StandWithUs?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#StandWithUs</a> <a href="https://t.co/sPo8WMtmog">pic.twitter.com/sPo8WMtmog</a></p>&mdash; Melbourne United (@MelbUnitedHQ) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnitedHQ/status/1365609270515888143?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 27, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The quotes

Players and coaches often tell the media there are “no secrets” to what they do, but not Rasmus Bach and the New Zealand Breakers.

“I think the secret was the Luna Park excursion we went on yesterday, so thanks to the NBL and Big Joe for organising that. I think the G-forces just cleared my head and locked me in,” Bach laughed after dropping 16 on Brisbane.

“I think I got to hit coach on the bumper cars one time too and get a little frustration out.”

The Breakers were smiling again after two straight wins, particularly against the Bullets where they showed genuine resilience for the first time in a long time.

Dan Shamir’s men have rocketed out of the gates in their past three games, but were easily overrun by Sydney and never tested by a dispirited Adelaide, leaving the Brisbane game as a major test.

“Today we again started well but we knew it was going to get tougher, we knew we were going to have some tough moments that the Bullets would respond, that we would have to play through it, play though some mistakes, therefore it’s good that we did that,” Shamir said.

“I think the mental part is a big part of basketball, being a player and being tough, and it’s a group thing, it’s a collective thing.

“A week ago, basketball wise and Xs and Os wise we started well, we built a nice lead and the moment we faced resistance, the moment the team we played against fought back, we broke.”



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">???????<br><br>It was an absolute three-for-all for everyone with Webster on the back of their jersey in the first half <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBLCup?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBLCup</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL21?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL21</a> <a href="https://t.co/phexntH90y">pic.twitter.com/phexntH90y</a></p>&mdash; The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1365563353477783552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 27, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


It was Corey and Tai Webster who perhaps put the biggest stake in the ground, combining for 10 vital points in the final five minutes.

“Both of them are very good players, the chemistry between them is obviously something that it’s not the coaches work, it’s been there forever,” Shamir said.

“The good thing is that they took over, we were in a pretty tough place, they decided to get us out of there.”

They’ll need to repeat the dose on Friday against a Melbourne team confident they can nullify New Zealand’s pair of FIBA shooting stars with Mitch McCarron, Shea Ili, Yudai Baba and Scotty Hopson in uniform.

“We've got elite guard defenders,” coach Dean Vickerman said.

“Shea, Mitch, Yudai, Scotty, Sam McDaniel, we’ve got guys we can continue to throw at them, so I like the match-ups that we have for them, but Corey’s one of the best. When he gets hot he’s really tough to stop.”



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Yudai Baba displayed his defensive acumen tonight against one of the league’s best. The ability to fight through a pin-down and a DHO to stay in front, then recover to block Cotton at the rim. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL21?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL21</a> <br> <a href="https://t.co/8wcJjRSsg7">pic.twitter.com/8wcJjRSsg7</a></p>&mdash; Minh Dao (@MinhDDao7) <a href="https://twitter.com/MinhDDao7/status/1358390166797180930?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 7, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


Melbourne don’t just have elite defensive guards, they have twin towers in Jock Landale and Jo Lual-Acuil ominously manning the paint, as they showed in their nail-biting win over Sydney.

“We protected the rim really well again tonight,” Vickerman said.

“We lose Jack White, the best shot-blocker on the team but we still come up with the six blocked shots, and I thought our verticality (was good), the number of free throws they shot was under 15.

“I thought our defence at the rim, Jock was a big part of that tonight and certainly Jo coming off the bench played a big part in protecting the rim tonight as well.”

With Chris Goulding likely back in uniform it’s all set up for another classic Melbourne-New Zealand showdown, a rivalry that has continued to grow since their pair of semi-final meetings, and which has added spice with Hopson crossing the Tasman.

“I’m sure Hop’s going to enjoy playing against his old team again for the first time,” Vickerman said.

“It will be a good match-up, they’ve got quality experienced guys and they’ve shown when they put it together what they're capable of, so look forward to the challenge.”

For the Breakers, it’s just one more step out of the hole they have created early in NBL21.

“We’re behind a million games, so we’re just starting, we have to do that, but it’s great they started it, we made the first two steps and hopefully it will continue,” Shamir said.