R7 Preview: Melbourne United vs Sydney Kings

When: 8pm (AEDT), Saturday 27 February

Where: John Cain Arena, Melbourne

Broadcast: ESPN; Sky Sports NZ; SBS On Demand; Twitch

The last time
Sydney 89 (Tate 20, Ware 15, Cooks 14) d Melbourne 87 (Goulding 19, McCarron 18, Long 17, Trimble 17), Semi-Final Game 3, 2019/20 Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney

In a thrilling and controversial classic, the Kings rode their home-court advantage and the relentless brilliance of Jae-Sean Tate, who was omnipresent en route to 20 points in 29 minutes, to a memorable victory. Ultimately it was Tate’s block on Melo Trimble, recovery of the loose ball and then finish at the other end that put Sydney ahead by four with 80 seconds to play and into their first grand final series since 2008.


The now
While Sydney have had a disrupted start to NBL21, they are building ominously, almost in parallel with 2020 grand final opponents the Wildcats. Melbourne’s only defeat has come at the hands of Perth, and if Sydney can repeat that dose it would put paid to any notion that United stand head and shoulders above the rest of the Hungry Jack’s NBL.

Over the past three weeks United are 5-1 and Sydney 4-2 despite their injuries. With the Kings missing Xavier Cooks and Jarell Martin, and Melbourne without Chris Goulding and Jack White, this contest will again be a test of both teams’ depth. That hasn’t been an issue so far, however, with United and Sydney ranking one and two for bench effectiveness.


The stats

 - Melbourne’s reserves outscore their counterparts 30.0-19.3 for a league-best differential of +10.7. United are outscoring opponents by an average of 7.1 points in total

 - Sydney’s subs lead their oppo 26.3-19.5 for a second-best differential of +6.8. The Kings are outscoring opponents by an average of 5.3 points in total

 - United’s bench pull in 46 per cent of their team’s offensive rebounds – led by Jo Lual-Acuil’s 2.2 orpg – despite playing just 32 per cent of the minutes

 - Sydney have won bench points 100-51 in their past three games, helped by the return of Daniel Kickert and Didi Louzada


The key men

Mitch McCarron – Sydney feed off their pressure defence, and are +33 on points from turnovers in their past four wins, making McCarron’s job particularly important. Money Making Mitch has compiled 35 points, 14 boards, 10 assists and 8 steals in the past two games while committing just 3 turnovers. He coughed it up six times against Perth’s pressure, however, and he needs to have his decision making en pointe on Saturday.

Didi Louzada – When Jock Landale is picking and popping Melbourne sure take some stopping, with Landale either nailing triples – he’s hitting 44 per cent in wins – or dragging opposition bigs away from the basket to open up penetration. Louzada’s defence has been at a new level since returning from injury, expert at avoiding screens, so his defence on Scotty Hopson and Mitch McCarron could be a key for the Kings to avoid rotations.



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Didi Louzada is so hard to screen defensively. He does a great job of navigating through screens here both on and off the ball before he strips the ball <a href="https://t.co/mUpDKo9Eap">pic.twitter.com/mUpDKo9Eap</a></p>&mdash; Caine Purnell (@caine_purnell) <a href="https://twitter.com/caine_purnell/status/1364832813640413185?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 25, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
The quotes

They had differing starts to the season – Melbourne 6-0 and the Kings 3-4 – but sure enough these two capital city powerhouses are on converging paths, along with Perth, to be challenging at season’s end.

What has been most impressive is their ability to turn the defensive screws across 40 minutes even with key pieces sidelined, as they sit number one and two for defensive rating.

United had that recipe down pat from the season opener, while it took Sydney three weeks to discover a defensive identity that suits this year’s incarnation.

It’s still a work in progress for the Kings – particularly with their starting frontcourt watching from the bench – as Bryce Cotton’s Round 6 demolition job of their blitzing ball-screen defence showed.

“The blitzing was working more in (Perth’s) favour by the end of it,” Forde said post-game.

“You can’t even call it a blitz, we ended up trying to chase and screen our own man and the rotations off the ball were softer because everyone was fearful of fouling.”

That carried over to the opening term against New Zealand, where Forde reverted to the Kings’ conservative 2020 defensive schemes, only to see the Webster brothers pick them apart for one open shot after another.

When Forde backed in his new aggressive approach his team got rolling, holding the Breakers to just 6 points in the second term while piling on 26 themselves, the exact picture the rookie coach had envisaged when he took over from Will Weaver.



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Dejan Vasiljevic is getting it done on both ends of the floor ?<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBLCup?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBLCup</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL21?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL21</a> <a href="https://t.co/XbazQ2CMR1">pic.twitter.com/XbazQ2CMR1</a></p>&mdash; The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1364841131826012163?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 25, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
“We’ve had a couple of those quarters now, we held Illawarra to an 11-point quarter, we held Adelaide to an eight-point quarter, so we've shown moments of brilliance in that aspect, trying to kill momentum of the opposition,” Forde said.

“The second phase of that is obviously trying to generate some points and doing so in a manner that we’ve been preparing for since day one.”

Sydney’s coaching staff face an interesting choice in the defence they deploy against Melbourne. Late last season, Melo Trimble and Chris Goulding very much exploited the space provided by the drops defence, but neither will be on the floor on Saturday.

Instead, perhaps Scotty Hopson shapes as the key challenge, with his ability to attack the basket to score or create a potential game-changer.

Against Adelaide, Hop thrived in his new sixth man role, finishing with 14 points on 7-of-11 from inside and 4 assists, and he could be the man to attack Sydney’s shows with great effect.

“We did it with Melo last year, brought him off the bench and just let Scotty not try and force something, just see what was going on on the floor and come in and be Scotty Hopson, attack the rim and make the passes that he does,” coach Vickerman said.

“I thought he was sharp tonight, he saw gaps, got into it, he was a big factor. We put the ball in his hands when the game got close and I thought he stretched out the margin.

“Looking at his plus/minus he was +20 when he was on the floor and that’s a credit to him and how he approached the game.”



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Scotty goes ? again<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBLCup?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBLCup</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL21?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL21</a> <a href="https://t.co/NuAARul12r">https://t.co/NuAARul12r</a> <a href="https://t.co/L0FalEYiRj">pic.twitter.com/L0FalEYiRj</a></p>&mdash; The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1364882752961613832?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 25, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>



Sydney will similarly need players to execute with poise against Melbourne’s starchy D, picking their moments when to attack in transition and when to pick apart the opposition’s defensive weak spots.

“That’s something we have to keep reminding ourselves on, we want to play a particular way,” Forde said.

“We’re not out there trying to play hero ball, but we also do recognise when Casper or Didi or Brucey or DJ or anybody starts to get a bit of momentum, great we’ll find you in the offence.

“That is not dribbling for 12 bounces and pulling up for a step-back contested three. That is getting it to the second side and moving it through hands and shifting the defence and then bringing out the particular guys we want to defend the ball, so we’re still working on that.”

They are undoubtedly working their way up the ladder, having won four of their past six, and a win over the ladder leaders on Saturday will stamp them as title contenders once Martin and Cooks return.

“We started slow, but our ability to turn it around and focus more on the defensive end is what I was really proud of. It’s something we’re talking a lot about and we need to get more consistent at that end,” point guard Shaun Bruce said.

“We've got to back it up Saturday, we've got another challenge against United and it’s going to be a big test for us, we’re looking forward to that.”