R1 Preview: Cairns vs Sydney

When: 8pm (AEDT), Saturday 16 January

Where: Cairns Pop-up Stadium

Broadcast: ESPN; Sky Sports NZ; SBS On Demand; Twitch

The last time

Sydney 92 (Kickert 18, Ware 18, Tate 15) d Cairns 83 (Deng 18, Machado 16, Newbill 15), Round 15, 2019/20 Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney

After being shown up by the Taipans in Round 10 at Qudos Bank Arena, the Kings were a team on a mission in this rematch, leading exclusively over the final 35 minutes and extending their margin to as many as 17 in the final stanza. Andrew Bogut, Xavier Cooks and Jae’Sean Tate combined for 9 o-boards and 4 steals as the home side controlled the possession game and knocked in 13 triples to keep the Snakes at bay.

The now

There is no Bogut, no Tate and with Cooks and Daniel Kickert on the injury list, the Kings are a very different frontcourt proposition to start the new season. Much will ride on the exploits of former NBA first-round pick Jarell Martin, who has the potential to be a prototypical centre in the Hungry Jack’s NBL with his athleticism and touch.

The Louisiana product dropped 20 on the LA Lakers three years ago, and in that same season nailed four triples on the Bucks and swatted five shots against the Mavs. If he can hit from deep at one end, and defend the paint at the other, things will open up significantly for Casper Ware, Brad Newley, Didi Louzada and Cooks when he returns.

There is a very similar look about this Taipans team, and that’s good reason for all of Cairns to rejoice. After a wooden spoon in NBL19 and a near-complete rebuild, last year’s incarnation clicked quickly and played some of the best team-first basketball in the competition, with one of the biggest reasons for that being Scott Machado.

His debut NBL season was at the level of prime Cedric Jackson and Scottie Wilbekin, as the Taipans frontcourt three-point shooting spread the floor for Machado and Cam Oliver to go to work. Two big questions are, can they repeat that marksmanship? And who fills the hole when Machado is subdued now that DJ Newbill is no longer in orange? 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The Snake Show! ???<a href="https://twitter.com/_ScottMachado?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@_ScottMachado</a> is back to lead the Snakes on the break, and we couldn&#39;t be happier to have him filling up the NBL highlight reels for at least another two-years.<br><br>Love your work, <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CairnsTaipans</a> ? <a href="https://t.co/T2UrYf8M8d">pic.twitter.com/T2UrYf8M8d</a></p>&mdash; The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1331171750025957377?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 24, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The key men

Kouat Noi – Of course, Machado and Oliver are a prime-time duo – surpassed only by Bryce Cotton and Nick Kay in NBL20 – and they received the headlines and the well-deserved plaudits. However, last season the Taipans’ supporting case got the job done quietly and effectively, and no one typified that more than DJ Newbill at both ends of the floor.

Coach Mike Kelly won’t ask Noi to be Newbill – he’s a different type of player and doesn’t have the worldly experience DJ brought to the NBL – but the Taipans do need some serious production from the wing. Noi averaged 14.9ppg at 54 per cent and 6.3rpg across an eight-game stint early in his rookie season pre-injury, showing his potential to be that man.

Casper Ware – Casper and coach Will Weaver got it a little wrong last season, the mercurial point guard asked to do too much for the stacked Kings. Ware carried a huge defensive load without help navigating ball screens against the NBL’s best guards, then took on too much offensive responsibility with a jump-shot that never really found its mark.

The result was 28 per cent three-point shooting on a massive 9.3 attempts per night, and a woeful 7-of-47 return in the post-season. Ware and new coach Adam Forde must ensure more Kings carry the load over this year, but on opening night, with Newbill’s departure weakening Cairns’ backcourt defence, don’t be surprised to see a breakout game.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Casper Ware was ???? to start Game 1 of the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBLFinals?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBLFinals</a>! <a href="https://t.co/ALSlDdsLRV">pic.twitter.com/ALSlDdsLRV</a></p>&mdash; FOX Basketball (@FoxBasketball) <a href="https://twitter.com/FoxBasketball/status/1101048279163232257?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 28, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The stats

- In Ware’s two seasons in Melbourne, United were 15-2 when he shot 45 per cent or better from the arc. Last season, the Kings were 5-0 when he reached that mark

- Last season, Sydney led the league by pulling in 75 per cent of the boards at their defensive end. However, Bogut, Cooks, Kickert and Tate, who grabbed 73 per cent of those caroms, won’t be on the floor on Saturday

- Cairns had seven players shoot above 35 per cent from the perimeter last season on at least one attempt per game. The rest of the league averaged 4.5 in that category

- The Taipans ranked first in field-goal percentage and second in three-point percentage, but ranked last in offensive rebounds, turnovers and field-goal attempts

The quotes

Kings floor general Casper Ware made an astute point as he looked ahead to the new Hungry Jack’s NBL season.

“You don’t try to replace Andrew Bogut, you just work on other things that you get better at and make our team better with the line-up we have,” he told the Cairns Post.

“We switched a few things around, and with Jarell coming in, Craig (Moller) stepping up, and Jordy (Hunter) has been doing a great job at that position.”

Of course, you can’t replace Andrew Bogut – not his shot-blocking, defensive rebounding, communication, understanding of offence and ability to make the right pass at the right time. However, the reality is that Bogut’s physical limitations late in his career restricted how Sydney could play, particularly at the defensive end, and particularly given his back-up Daniel Kickert has similar limitations.

While the Kings won the minor premiership, they struggled against teams with elite guards over the final 3-4 months of the season, posting a 6-7 record against fellow playoff teams Cairns, Melbourne and Perth after the first week of December.

So when they went looking for Bogut’s replacement on the import market, they wanted an athlete who could block shots and rebound, get further away from the basket defensively, while also being able to stretch the floor at the other end – that man is Jarell Martin.

“Jarell is exactly the type of player we were looking for to round out our roster. It is rare to find a 6’10 versatile big who can handle the ball, push in transition and be a strong presence inside – couple that with his three-point range, I am confident he will be a force in this league,” Kings CEO Chris Pongrass said.

“We are definitely going to benefit from Jarell’s competitiveness and desire to win – Kings fans should be excited for what is in store.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Coming ? to <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL21?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL21</a>, Jarell Martin ?<br><br>What are you expecting from the <a href="https://twitter.com/SydneyKings?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@SydneyKings</a> new recruit this season? <a href="https://t.co/jxBxrC7O7a">pic.twitter.com/jxBxrC7O7a</a></p>&mdash; The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1342988234221998081?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 27, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Martin and Moller have huge shoes to fill with Bogut and Tate out of the picture, but so do some of their Cairns counterparts.

“It’s a massive difference, he was always there and he was always aggressive,” Taipans retiree Alex Loughton told The Cairns Post.

Of course, he was talking about Newbill, and while seeing how the Taipans’ pair of NBA prospects fill that gap is a matter of urgency for the Orange Army, it’s a thing of excitement for the broader hoops community.

The youngest of the pair, 18 year-old Next Star Mojave King, showed exactly what he’s capable of with 21 points in 20 minutes against Melbourne in the pre-season.

“Mojave is super aggressive,” Loughton said.

“He had big minutes and came up with some big plays … (Mike) Kelly won’t be too unhappy with what he saw.

“We’ve seen a bit of Mojave so far, and based on that he could be in for a good year.”

So could the 23 year-old Noi, who added 22 points as the Snakes downed Adelaide in their final hit-out before the season. Yet while the individual performances were promising, coach Kelly knows the team aspect might still be a work-in-progress come Saturday night.

“We got to play four pre-season games, where a month ago we weren’t sure if we were going to play any,” Kelly told The Cairns Post.

“We definitely used it to the fullest, we got to see some new players and how they fit into new structures, and we know that we need to improve.

“We were able to identify some things that were important for us to get better at going forward, and we’ll get better this week and get ready for Sydney.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL21?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL21</a> Next Star Mojave King (<a href="https://twitter.com/Mojaveee?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Mojaveee</a>) in his <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CairnsTaipans</a> preseason debut ?<br><br>21 points<br>3/6 from three<br>53% from the field <a href="https://t.co/tZPPWjMQyp">pic.twitter.com/tZPPWjMQyp</a></p>&mdash; The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1344579954143424513?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 31, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>