Preview: New Zealand v Melbourne (Round 17)

When: 5.30pm (AEDT), Saturday 28 January, 2023
Where: Spark Arena, Auckland
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ
LIVE SCORES & STATS

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Who won the last time?

Melbourne 77 (Rathan-Mayes 20, Goulding 14, Newley 14) d New Zealand 65 (Brantley 17, Le’afa 13) – Round 15, Christchurch Arena
With New Zealand having played in Perth two nights earlier, many expected United to try and run them out of the gym, but down Dave Barlow and Isaac Humphries they instead produced one of the most clinical performances of NBL23, establishing a double-figure lead in the second term and controlling the tempo all the way home, Xavier Rathan-Mayes the conductor and Marcus Lee the bass drum as they moved within reach of the top six.

What happened last game?

Melbourne won in a different fashion in Brisbane and Adelaide, raining pain from the three-point line to claim two fast-paced wins and move to 5-1 on their festive-season road trip, just percentage outside the top six. The Breakers dropped two more on the trot after their clash with United, but then produced a gritty win in Sydney followed by a blistering victory in Brisbane, where their full roster took to the floor together for just the third time.

What’s working?

Three-point party – In the past two games Melbourne have made 14.5 triples at 40 per cent, with a 27-point advantage from outside the arc in a seven-point win over Adelaide. United make the second-most three-pointers per game (10.6) in the NBL, and in their current five-game winning streak have nailed 11.6 at 39 per cent, compared to a lowly 31 per cent conversion in their 12 losses this season.

Defending the three-point line – The Breakers keep opponents to the fewest number of three-pointers (7.7) at the second-lowest clip (32%). Perth is the only team to make 10 or more triples against NZ in the past 20 games, with even Melbourne kept to 8/24 last time they met. That strategy had its pitfall though, with XRM and United attacking the pressure and getting to the foul line 28 times to 18.

What needs stopping?

Marcus Lee – Once Rathan-Mayes got inside the Breakers’ D he knew where to throw it – up above the long arms of Lee. Yet while it was his finishing that featured in the highlights, Marcus dished out five dimes that night as United moved expertly off the ball to exploit New Zealand’s pressure in the passing lanes. At the other end, Lee led the game in defensive boards and the Breakers shot just 35 per cent inside when he was on the floor.

Jarell Brantley – The other dominant figure that night was Brantley, who had 17 points at 60 per cent in 23 minutes to be +1 in a 12-point loss. Melbourne struggled for answers with Dave Barlow sidelined and had it not been for five fouls, Jarell may have single-handedly made this a tight contest. JB has averaged 23.3ppg at 53 per cent inside in four games since – along with 11/25 from deep – and is sure to be target number one on Saturday.

Who’s missing key men?

Shea Ili and Dave Barlow remain sidelined for Melbourne with concussion issues, while the Breakers are expected to be at full strength.

Who’s matching up?

Izayah Le’afa v Chris Goulding – While Goulding missed a few he’d normally eat for breakfast, his 2/10 shooting night in Christchurch had plenty to do with Le’afa’s defence. His knowledge of CG’s cutting patterns and anticipation to beat him to the spot was outstanding, helping keep the Melbourne skipper to just seven three-point attempts. When Goulding takes 10 or more treys his team is 8-1, compared to 5-10 when he takes less.

Barry Brown v Rayjon Tucker – Brown was back in Brisbane and scored 14 points in 16 minutes off the bench. He’s reached 20 points just once in his past six though, can he rediscover that electric scoring touch from earlier in NBL23? Tucker has reached that mark in 10 of his past 15, and burst a mini-slump by burning Adelaide for 25 points. He only had seven points on three shots last time against NZ, but contributed in other ways.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">No shoe, absolutely no worries for <a href="https://twitter.com/th3flighttuck?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@th3flighttuck</a> ??<br><br>?: ESPN on Kayo or Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/J4K717gyD3">pic.twitter.com/J4K717gyD3</a></p>&mdash; Melbourne United (@MelbUnited) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnited/status/1613451900359446528?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 12, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what

If you were in any doubt Breakers coach Mody Maor is all about team first, you only need to listen to his post-game press conference in Brisbane.

Asked about Jarell Brantley’s recent dominant form with Barry Brown out, the Israeli gave a direct response.

“That’s the player he has to be always, but you always ask me about specific players. A second ago you asked me about a balanced effort, so why now you need to ask me about a specific player,” Maor said.

Brantley and Will McDowell-White were exceptional in the win over Sydney, combining for 50 points, but Rob Loe, Dererk Pardon and Cam Gliddon added a further 35 at 58 per cent.

With Brown and Izayah Le’afa back in uniform in Brisbane, the Breakers had seven players score nine or more.

“It’s a good thing, when we have everyone then we have a lot of guys who can do a lot of things. Sharing the love is great, on any given day another Breaker can step up and that’s fantastic,” Maor said.

“Everybody who stepped on the floor today played the right way, everybody competed, and when we play the right way Jarell is a magnifier of all the good things that we do.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The no look from glizzo ?? <a href="https://t.co/YP04OfjCyA">pic.twitter.com/YP04OfjCyA</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1618535145967087616?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 26, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Against Melbourne in Round 15 that was far from the case, however, Brantley forced to create offence one-on-one as a clinical United shut down his team’s ball movement.

“Obviously we need to find more solutions on offence,” Maor said afterwards.

“Our defence in the second half was very good, I think we held them to 34 or 35 points in the second half, that’s good, Melbourne have been firing on all cylinders on offence.

“We need to find more solutions on offence and get some more easy shots – that’s 100 per cent on me.”

The Breakers managed just 65 points at 36 per cent inside as Marcus Lee in particular intimidated their guards on penetration, McDowell-White and Le’afa shooting a combined 4/12 from two-point range and WMW managing only one dime.

“They're such a force on the block and Will makes such great reads out of the pick and roll, I thought the way we protected the paint tonight, we held them under 40 per cent and just did a great job,” coach Dean Vickerman said.

At the other end, Melbourne showed outstanding maturity to weather New Zealand’s physicality and execute pick-and-roll offence precisely, led by Xavier Rathan-Mayes.

“Their defence forces you to play in a lot of high pick-and-rolls, space the floor and we saw some guys be able to get downhill,” Vickerman said.

“X is a guy in those kinds of moments, he can really attack some of the switches and I thought he made good decisions for us tonight.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Watching <a href="https://twitter.com/JustMarcusLee?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@JustMarcusLee</a> do this game after game will never get old. <br><br>?: ESPN on Kayo or Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/LycVz85TTc">pic.twitter.com/LycVz85TTc</a></p>&mdash; Melbourne United (@MelbUnited) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnited/status/1613438512912822272?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 12, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That ability to withstand pressure will be sorely tested in the rematch with Shea Ili unavailable, and Brad Newley’s mobility and ball-handling at the four-spot may again be a key, after he scored 14 crucial points in Christchurch.

“Brad, for a guy that’s bounced between the three and four spot and just done what’s needed for the team, his attack on the rim tonight (was great) and made some big shots as well,” Vickerman said.

“A lot of people stepped up, Marcus Lee foul trouble, Tucker foul trouble and I thought other people stepped into those roles.”

Isaac Humphries steps back into the line-up on Saturday, giving added depth to a Melbourne team that’s been grinding out must-win games for a month, and can keep their playoff destiny in their own hands with a sixth-straight road win in Auckland.

“We’re probably not the hottest team in it, we’re not rolling in and trouncing teams, we’re in hard fought games against other desperate teams,” Chris Goulding said.

“We have to keep a level of that underdog, that desperation about us, otherwise it’s all for nothing. If we start thinking we’re top crap now it’s all for nothing. So head down, onto the next one, be desperate.”

Goulding refused to look further afield than Saturday, and so did Barry Brown despite a top two finish and home-court advantage in the semi-finals being back on the Breakers’ menu.

“We’re definitely put together to compete for a championship, but right now it’s one game at a time,” Brown said.

“We've got to finish out the regular season and just continue to stay focused, not look too far ahead.”