Team-By-Team: Lowery's NBL26 Season Preview & Predictions

Damon Lowery for NBL.com.au

Before I start handing out my Harden Ups and Hooyahs this season, here is my deep dive on each team ahead of the highly anticipated tip-off of NBL26 on Thursday night.

I’ve ranked the teams from top to bottom and I’m happy to be proven wrong.

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ILLAWARRA – Back-to-Back Champions

Justin Tatum led the Hawks to their first “chip” in 24 years and won Coach of the Year along the way. ‘JT’ is a leader of men and the way his players talk about him is proof. He spent the off-season honing his craft in Indonesia and comes back to the “Gong” ready to launch.

I was laughed at by my colleagues last season when I predicted an Illawarra title, and guess who got the last laugh? Well, I’m calling it again. #Back2Back

STRENGTHS – This team’s chemistry should be studied. Every player is sincerely happy for others to succeed. Whenever the camera pans to the bench you can see the unbridled enthusiasm being shown.

After losing Lachlan Olbrich to the Chicago Bulls, Hyunjung Lee to Korea, and Trey Kell III to China, Basketball General Manager Matt “Soup” Campbell went out and got the most credentialed import the League has ever seen in three-time NBA Champion and professional shot blocker Javale McGee.

He also added Defensive Player of the Year candidate JaQuori McLaughlin, a 6-foot-4 scoring point guard who played for Tatum in Indonesia. Will ‘Davo’ Hickey represented Australia in the Asia Cup and brought back a gold medal, and Tatum has rightly handed him the keys to the car, promoting him to the starting five.

Plus, First Team All-NBL and soon-to-be naturalised citizen and pathological scorer Tyler Harvey returns to captain this formidable machine.

WEAKNESSES – All-NBL Second Team and heart and soul Sam Froling will miss a chunk of the season as he recovers from a ruptured Achilles suffered in last season’s Championship Series. With his recovery well ahead of schedule from all reports, I believe the Hawks can hold the fort until he returns.

BIG TICKET – McGee, obviously. Not only have we never seen a three-time NBA Champion of his calibre in the League, but we’ve also never seen a 7’1 athletic freak of nature with a 7’6 wingspan. He’s a Pterodactyl in human form and will wreak absolute havoc and mayhem on any opposition foolishly thinking they can stroll into the key and get a shot off. McGee is going to throw the greatest “block party” the NBL has ever seen, and everyone is invited.

PERTH – Runners-Up

John Rillie enters his fourth season and missed out on making the Championship Series by one point. Rillie and Perth’s Basketball General Manager Danny Mills have recruited beautifully and they look primed to go one step further.

Perth has been knocking on the door of the Championship Series ever since Rillie took over, and each year they knock a little harder. I think this is the year they stop knocking and barge in.

STRENGTHS – Overall balance. Jo Lual-Acuil Jr has returned and brings a wealth of experience and legitimate size as a seven-footer who can score inside and out, and protect the rim like his life depends on it.

New import Mason Jones arrives as a certified scoring point guard with NBA experience. Just this year, he won the G-League Championship and was named MVP.

Imports Kristian Doolittle and Dylan Windler are back, making this team extremely potent. Despite losing Bryce Cotton, the Wildcats have done everything they can to fill the void and could perhaps be a more rounded and dangerous team as a result.

WEAKNESSES – If I had to nitpick, finding playing time for such an immensely talented roster might be somewhat tricky. It may also take a few weeks to build team chemistry given players like Lual-Acuil Jr and Jones haven’t had long to learn the system and get to know their teammates. Total buy-in and patience from everyone on the roster, and the notorious Red Army, will be crucial for this team to go all the way.

BIG TICKET – Mason Jones wasn’t in Australia three days when he hit the court in a practice game against a touring Japan side and knocked down seven triples. Mason is an enthusiastic showman and the Red Army will be thrilled to the back teeth watching him do his thing.

SYDNEY – Third

Brian Goorijan. This column isn’t big enough to list all of ‘Goorj’s’ achievements, so just believe me when I tell you he’s the greatest coach Australian basketball has ever seen.

Last season was disappointing, despite finishing fifth with a 13-15 record. Injuries to key players didn’t help and they were bundled out in the play-in game. This season will look completely different with Chris Pongrass and co making some big-time recruiting moves.

STRENGTHS – It’s rarer than hen’s teeth when an assistant coach is one of the team’s biggest strengths, but when yours is an NBA Champion, three-time Olympian, and NBL MVP, it’s kind of a big deal. Andrew Bogut’s influence and mere presence on the bench will be a game-changer.

2025 Championship Series MVP Matthew Dellavedova decided to bring his stellar point guard play and leadership to the harbour city, but the Kings didn’t stop there, adding last season’s NBL MVP runner-up Kendric Davis.

Jaylin Galloway, who missed last season with injury, is coming off an Asia Cup gold medal and MVP award. Oh yeah, and two-time NBL champion and former NBL MVP Xavier Cooks is still on the team.

WEAKNESSES – Allow me to nitpick once again. My biggest concerns are whether two point guards can co-exist in the same backcourt. ‘Delly’ and ‘KD’ both dominate the ball in different ways, so it will be an interesting watch. But if they can work it out – look out.

BIG TICKET – The “Pocket Rocket”, Kendric Davis, averaged 26 points last season and led the League in assists with eight. He has his sights set on making the NBA, and with another season like last season, we could very well see him make the big-time next year.

TASMANIA – Fourth

Scott Roth missed the Finals for the first time, finishing seventh with a 13-16 record. The “Jackies” are still in good shape with three new dynamic imports, plus Josh Bannan and a healthy Olympian and shot-blocking extraordinaire, Will Magnay. This team will be more than ready to “Defend the Island”.

STRENGTHS – Imports Bryce Hamilton, who I’ve already pencilled in for First-Team All NBL, David Johnson, a ‘do it all’ kind of guy, and Tyger Campbell, small in stature but gigantic in heart and the purest of point guards, will be a huge factor this season for Tassie.

Magnay is healthy again having led the Boomers to Asia Cup Gold, and with the passionate Ant Army primed to lift the lid on MyState Bank Arena, this team will leave it all out on the floor making life hell for visiting teams.

WEAKNESSES – A lot of championship experience has left the island, so I ask: can all the new players retain the same grit and grind that’s made the Jackies such a dangerous team? Time will tell.

BIG TICKET – The only thing that has stoppe Magnay from consistently dominating has been his health. Will looks to be in the best shape of his life and came within a whisker of making the Memphis Grizzlies roster in the NBA in the off-season. Still only 27, he is in his prime and ready for a breakout season.

MELBOURNE UNITED – Fifth

Dean Vickerman has lost the last two Championship Series, and both went to a deciding game. Anything less than the Championship Series now feels like a failure, as United’s standards are so high.

While the front office did not sit on their hands in the off-season and added some new weapons, I’m just not sure they have the firepower to make it back again.

STRENGTHS – Culture. MU’s standards are gold class: from their support staff to the front office, everything in between is top-notch.

NBL Champion Milton Doyle has come to the big smoke after inflicting enough misery on United in the past. New imports make their NBL debuts in Tyson Walker, a point guard’s point guard who is lightning quick and can score with the best of them, while Jessie Edwards is seven feet tall and I’m almost positive he’s the first Dutch import to play in the NBL, and athletic as all hell.

Chris Goulding was Second Team All-NBL last season and shot the absolute skin off the ball. With some fresh new faces, including young 17-year-old Next Star and future NBA player Dash Daniels, United will feature in the post-season once again.

WEAKNESSES – Past “failures”. Do United have the intestinal fortitude to overcome back-to-back Championship losses when they had one hand on the trophy?

BIG TICKET – Goulding is the greatest shooter of the modern era with his unmatched ability to go on explosive outbursts. Turning 37 soon, Father Time has done absolutely nothing to diminish his shooting abilities. I guarantee you, ‘CG43’ will once again have John Cain Arena rockin’.

ADELAIDE – Sixth

Mike Wells enters his second season after becoming coach last year at the last minute, and guiding the 36ers to the playoffs. Mike is a passionate coach with tons of NBA experience, having been an assistant with five NBA teams.

His team will have some offensive explosions that will be breathtaking to watch, and once in the Finals, anything can happen.

STRENGTHS – The 36ers and Matt Weston have assembled an almighty roster. The biggest free agent signing in history, five-time MVP Bryce Cotton, has moved to the city of churches. I have no doubt Weston spent a lot of time praying Bryce would sign on the dotted line.

Then the Australian Department of Immigration granted Bryce citizenship, which means he can play as a local and the 36ers could elect to bring in another import. They already have Zylan Cheatham with his uber athleticism, and Montrezl Harrell who last season was recovering from a serious knee injury. ‘Trezz’ played himself into an All-NBL Second Team and this season he’s fully healthy and ready to “ball out”.

WEAKNESSES – There’s only one basketball and there are a lot of mouths to feed. Do you start Isaac Humphries, Harrell, and Cheatham? Managing playing time and some big, healthy egos might be the biggest challenge this team faces.

BIG TICKET – If you don’t already have a ticket for Adelaide’s home opener, you need to look under every rock to find one because they’re all but sold out, again. The 36ers sold out every game last season and now they’ve got Cotton.

NEW ZEALAND – Seventh

Petteri Koponen, my favourite Finnish dude, is back for his second season and brought an exciting version of European basketball across the ditch. His side was 7-3 early last season before head office decided to blow everything up, causing them to plummet down the ladder and into a ninth-placed finish.

STRENGTHS – There are new owners in town and they’ve already made their intentions clear to return the Breakers back to their roots. New General Manager of Basketball Dillon Boucher is an NBL champion and proud Kiwi, and has pursued a strong Kiwi presence.

Rob Loe, Izayah Le’Afa, and Rueben TeRangi are back home, while the scintillating Parker Jackson-Cartwright returns as a legitimate MVP candidate.

New imports Rob Baker II and Izaiah Brockington, who I’ve already nicknamed “Bucket-ton” for his ability to get buckets at an alarming rate, have made this team well-rounded and dangerous. Breakers fans will love watching this team play.

WEAKNESSES – The roster is loaded with talent, but losing seven players from last season means it’s going to take time to gel. With every team stacked, too much time can’t be lost finding that winning chemistry.

BIG TICKET – Karim Lopez enters his second season as a Next Star. The 18-year-old Mexican is already on every NBA Draft board as a potential first round pick. If you’re local, make every excuse to get to every game he plays, because this is it. He’s in the NBA next year.

CAIRNS – Eighth

Adam Forde was moving on in search of overseas coaching opportunities at the end of last season, but Cairns flipped the script and went all out to ensure their coach had the tools to win it all.

A beloved coach, Forde has continually unearthed and developed young talent, but this year he has some ready-made jets on the runway ready for takeoff.

STRENGTHS – Coaching was never the issue, the coin never enough to attract top tier talent. Jack McVeigh brings his unique set of skills to the Taipans fresh from a stint in the NBA. His ability to not only score from all over the floor, but to bring high energy, sets him apart.

Throw in former NBA power forward Admiral Schofield, and Andrew Andrews, a proven international scoring guard, and the Taipans are ready to make some serious noise.

WEAKNESSES – Sam Waardenburg will miss the start of the season after undergoing ankle surgery. Sam was the club MVP and leaves big shoes to fill.

BIG TICKET – There are a million reasons to watch McVeigh play. We last saw him in the Championship Series two seasons ago, where he led Tasmania to their maiden title. He made the greatest, most ‘clutchiest’ shot in Championship history against United.

After time with the Houston Rockets, Jack “McTrey” is ready to raise the temperature in far north Queensland.

BRISBANE – Ninth

Stu Lash enters his first season of professional coaching having worked in the NBA in a variety of roles, as video coordinator, scouting, draft analysis, and player personnel and development.

There’s no doubting Stu has an eye for the game, but coaching is a different kettle of fish. However, he has a deep pond to fish in with some big-name players at the Bullets, ready to fire.

STRENGTHS – Tyrell Harrison led the NBL in rebounding last season and played some really good ball in the NBA Summer League. He was agonisingly close to earning a roster spot with the Denver Nuggets and will be out to prove he can make the big-time.

Former League MVP and NBL Champion Jaylen Adams will be running the show, while Second Team All-NBL Casey Prather is back, and Javon Freeman-Liberty is set to take the League by storm.

WEAKNESSES – Besides Tyrell Harrison, their lack of size could be an issue. Couple that with a rookie coach and there could be some growing pains.

BIG TICKET – Another import with NBA experience, Freeman-Liberty showed in the pre-season that scoring comes rather easy for him. After averaging 24 points in the NBA G League, he was called up to the Toronto Raptors.

SOUTH EAST MELBOURNE – Tenth

Josh King returns for his first full season and guided his team to the finals last season, going down in three games to Illawarra.

Let me say, this will be the unfortunate year where a really good team comes dead last. The League is that loaded. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Phoenix won half their games, but it simply won’t be enough as this will be the most competitive season we have ever seen.

STRENGTHS – Tenacity. King leads from the front and his team plays hard-nose, in-your-face defence. Led by two-time Champion Angus Glover, seven-foot athletic tall Jordy Hunter, and perennial all-around scorer Nathan Sobey, these guys will make opposition teams work for everything.

To add to the defensive arsenal, John Brown III joins the team as a six-foot-eight forward that plays with high energy. New import point guard Hunter Maldonado stands at 6’6" and is an all-around player that can do a bit of everything.

WEAKNESSES – Belgium import Vrenz Bleijenberg has been released, leaving the Phoenix with only two imports to start the season. I don’t see defence being an issue but they appear to be somewhat offensively challenged.

BIG TICKET – Malique Lewis enters his last year in the Next Stars program and is coming back bigger and stronger with a much improved three-point shot. Malique is already a defensive menace and NBA folks will be hanging around Melbourne to get a closer look.

Malique is projected as a first-round pick next season, so enjoy him while he’s here.