Stat Chat: NBL Blitz (What's hot and what's not)

Statistics ... whether you love them or hate them, stats play a huge part in sport.

Whether it's when recruiting a player, how teams prepare, how a starting five is setup, or just about any facet of the game, numbers are crunched and relied upon as fact. 

This year, 2018 NBL Champion and expert commentator Pete Hooley will once again be our resident stats man on NBL.com.au to provide a rundown of all the key numbers heading into a new round of games. 

Keep an eye out after every round for the latest edition of 'Stat Chat'. 

What’s hot – 45
Returning big man Isaac Humphries showed great glimpses into why he was such a great signing for Adelaide by putting up 45 points in his three games at the Blitz at an efficient 66% from the floor. Humphries has had his injury concerns throughout the last few years but when he’s healthy, he can be a dominant force on both ends for Adelaide.

What’s not – 64
There were a lot of questions coming out of Adelaide’s Blitz performances, but it was hard to look over their inability to look after the ball. 64 turnovers across three games is a very concerning number for the 36ers. Most of these largely came from immense defensive pressure, but there were probably 40% that were just careless and unforced.

Isaac Humphries.

What’s hot – +21
The Bullets looked fresh and rejuvenated across their three games as they prepare to turn things around from last season. They finished the Blitz with a +21 in their rebound count, winning all three games, which shows their change in mindset into all the little important things on the floor. Granted, it helps when Baynes pulls down 20 himself in one game, but it was a positive week for Brisbane.

What’s not – 27.6
We expect the preseason to be an adjustment period for everyone, both new and returning players into how this season is going to be officiated. The Bullets averaged 27.6 fouls per game across the Blitz which ultimately may not bother Justin Schueller too much, but it’s worth keeping an eye on as we approach Round 1. There is a fine line between bringing the physicality on the defensive end and sending your opponent to the bonus early and often.

Aron Baynes.

What’s hot – 108
This number is somewhat inflated due to the injuries the Taipans had, but 108 bench points across their three games just goes to show the confidence each young player has when presented with an opportunity under Adam Forde. Granted, many of the guys who played major minutes will likely be bench contributors themselves, but this is the exact mindset Forde wants from every player involved with this team.

What’s not – -8
The Taipans finished the week with a -8 discrepancy in blocks from the Blitz. Whilst this isn’t a huge concern, it’s important to note that this is the likely style of play we will see from Cairns this season. They’ll be up and in defensively on the wings, but besides Akoldah Gak and Bobi Klintman to a degree, they aren’t full of rim protectors.

Taran Armstrong.

What’s hot – 3
This is an obvious one, but the Blitz was all about Lachlan Olbrich for the Hawks. Olbrich stood out as arguably the most impressive youngster across the entire week, scoring 38 points in his last two games, but also only missing 3 FG’s the entire week. It’s more than just his agility and touch for his size that had NBA scouts eyes lighting up, but he is already looking somewhat of a veteran out on the floor with his leadership. Jacob Jackomas told me out of all the players he’s most excited about for NBL24, it’s “Olbrich and then daylight.” It’s easy to see why.

What’s not – 25.5
Disregard the last game the Hawks played against Cairns, and this is why there’s a slight concern around this team going forward. In their first two games, the Hawks shot 25.5% from three on 43 attempts. They are a team designed to take, and hopefully make, a lot of threes to win games. Looking through their roster everyone has the capability to knock it down from outside. including Sam Froling who is planning to join that party in NBL24. In their last game the Hawks hit 17 threes and blew out Cairns. The question is, can they still find enough points to win if they aren’t hitting threes?

Sam Froling.

What’s hot – 1
It might have surprised a few fans, but this just might be the new look Matthew Dellavedova going forward. From the very first minute of game one Delly came out letting it fly offensively and never looked back. Across his Blitz, Delly scored 1 point for every minute of action he saw, 56 total in fact. Not only that, but he did it efficiently and devastatingly and scored 17 points in the first 5 minutes of action against Brisbane.

What’s not – 38.7
It’s hard to get a gauge on just how potent this United team will be on both ends when they’re at full strength. Jo Lual-Acuil Jr is a big piece they’re missing right now, full pun intended. I say that because United allowed 38.7 points per game in the paint, an area that will no doubt sharpen up when Lual-Acuil Jr returns and they get their line-ups sorted.

Matthew Dellavedova.

What’s hot – 13.3
There were a lot of positives to take out of New Zealand’s Blitz, regardless of how it ended. This is a very exciting roster that Mody Maor has put together and it is one full of energy, which was shown with their effort on the offensive glass. The Breakers averaged 13.3 offensive rebounds across their three games, with everyone showing that intent to crash the boards hard to earn extra possessions.

What’s not – 2
One slight concern from the Blitz for the Breakers was their inability to either maintain a lead or stop the bleeding in two of their games. I’m going to disregard the 36ers game, because that looked like a training drill and just focus on the other two. Against the Wildcats, the Breakers looked to have the game won just after half time, going up by nearly 20, only to end up giving up 34 points in the fourth and losing the game. Against Tasmania the Breakers gave up 54 points in the first half and were down almost 20 at half time, but managed to claw it back to be within 2 in the final minute before Tasmania held on.

Zylan Cheatham.

What’s hot – 29.3
The Wildcats finished the Blitz a perfect 3-0 after coming from behind the win their last game. There were many promising signs from this new-look Perth outfit, especially on the defensive end. Offensively, they looked very intent on putting heat on the rim, as seen by them averaging 29.3 free-throw attempts across their three games. The outside shooting is there, but with the likes of Jordan Usher and Keanu Pinder out there there’s clearly a pace of play and advantage in getting to the hoop or getting fouled.

What’s not – 10
This is not so much a negative, but more what will be tricky for John Rillie and the staff to figure out as the season goes on. The Wildcats had 10 players who hit the court score throughout every game at the Blitz, further showcasing their depth this season. With that depth comes tough decisions as to who plays and when. The likes of youngsters Michael Harris and Ben Henshall both impressed immensely across the week and would be very deserving of significant minutes throughout the season. The addition of new import Kristian Doolittle will further limit minutes elsewhere. It’s a good problem to have, but it can be tricky to navigate early on.

Jordan Usher.

What’s hot – 89
What a performance from injury replacement, Tyler Cook, who was literally a day off the plane before hitting the floor and dominating the Blitz on his way to winning the Ray Borner MVP Trophy. Cook had 89 PR (points/rebounds) across the three games and looked impossible to stop throughout the week. Yes, he’s only going to be around for a few weeks until Alan Williams returns, but the Phoenix have found a piece that should help them avoid a slow start to the season.

What’s not – 98.5
It’s still very early into Mike Kelly’s reign at South East Melbourne, but for two of their games at the Blitz, it was a bit of déjà vu for the fans. The Phoenix have never had an issue scoring the ball since entering the league, it’s always been the other end that has led to their downfall, and giving up an average 98.5 points in their two losses isn’t ideal. Mike Kelly addressed that concern throughout the week, stating that he knows the team has to be better on that end, which is no surprise when you know the defensive mindset that he likes to coach with. It was then also no surprise to see the Phoenix only win come when holding a very potent offensive Kings team to 86.

Tyler Cook.

What’s hot – 8
I don’t like highlighting a stat that I believe is wrong, but it was recorded that Jaylin Galloway had 8 total steals/blocks throughout the three games, even though I counted at least four more. Galloway is poised to be a Most Improved Player candidate this season for the Kings and will be looking to lock up the starting 3 spot as a Justin Simon replacement. Galloway’s athleticism allows him to be a pest defensively, whilst also allowing him to be a consistent offensive threat on the other end. He’s an NBA player in the future, just how long that takes is up to him.

What’s not – 101
It’s sometimes easy to forget because of the highlights, but the last two seasons the Kings won the title they had been one of the best defensive teams in the league. Whilst I’m not expecting that to be any different this season, it was obvious that it will take a little time for the returning players and new ones to adjust to a new coach’s style. The Kings gave up an average of 101 points per game across their Blitz, which is clearly way too many if they want to chase a threepeat. It is a vastly different defensive identity the Kings are implementing this season, and once they get it right, they’re going to be a menace.

Jaylin Galloway.

What’s hot – +17
It was the JackJumpers we have all come to know and love since they arrived in the NBL two years ago. They play with great energy on both ends, but it’s defensively which sets them apart from a lot of teams around the league. Across their three games, the JJ’s finished with 17 fewer turnovers than their opponents. It’s one of the major reasons they’ve finished in the top four in consecutive seasons, and will be the reason they get back there again in NBL24. How many turnovers can they force from their opposition whilst taking care of the ball themselves?

What’s not – 1
Tasmania are still missing their foundation big man, Will Magnay, who when healthy is a force protecting the rim. As mentioned above, it’s their defensive pressure which always keep them in with a chance to win any game. The JackJumpers had just one block in each of their three games at the Blitz, which you would expect to change when Magnay returns. Marcus Lee showed glimpses last season of being a rim protector for United, but for Tassie’s guards to really step up their pressure they need that faith to know that a big man has their back at the rim if they get beaten.

Marcus Lee.