R7 Preview: Cairns Taipans vs Perth Wildcats

Friday, February 26, 2021

Bryce Cotton is humming, but if one team has shown they can shut down the MVP it's Cairns, setting up a classic semi-final rematch in the NBL Cup.

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Friday 26 February

Where: John Cain Arena, Melbourne

Broadcast: ESPN; Sky Sports NZ; SBS On Demand; Twitch

The last time
Perth 93 (White 26, Kay 24, Steindl 11) d Cairns 82 (Oliver 20, Machado 19, Djeric 12), Semi-Final Game 3, 2019/20, RAC Arena, Perth

Cairns won the battle – keeping Bryce Cotton to just 5 points – but lost the war as Jesse Wagstaff and Clint Steindl dropped bombs from distance, Nick Kay and Miles Plumlee got the job done inside and Terrico White played his customary closer role with 12 final-quarter points to guide Perth into yet another grand final. Cam Oliver and Scott Machado were outstanding, but with DJ Newbill fully occupied shutting down Bryce, the Snakes lacked a third scoring option to post a winning score.

The now
The Taipans are still struggling to post winning scores without Newbill, only twice going past 90 points in regulation. Mike Kelly’s men have become three-point dependent, and when the triple drops – as it did in the opening 16 minutes against Melbourne – things look good, but when the supply dries the Snakes have struggled to find other scoring avenues, a concern with stretch big Majok Deng now sidelined.

Perth have reached triple figures in two of their past four games and scored 102.7ppg in their past three wins as the offence begins to click. When it’s gone wrong, it’s gone horribly wrong for the Cats, who still haven’t found a third wheel to support the irrepressible Cotton and the impressive John Mooney. No team averages more assists though, and like the Taipans, when the three is dropping things look good.

The stats

- The Wildcats are averaging 77 points a game in losses, hitting 7.3 triples at 26 per cent, well down on their 99 points in victories on 14.5 threes at 49 per cent

- In Perth wins, Cotton and Mooney score 44 per cent of the team’s score (43.4ppg), however in losses the dynamic duo’s contribution rises to 54 per cent (41.3ppg)

- Cairns hit six triples at 43 per cent in the opening 16 minutes against Melbourne and racked up 40 points. In the remaining 24 minutes they nailed three threes at 27 per cent and scored 41 points

- The Taipans rank first in three-point makes (11.9) but seventh in made free throws and last in two-point field goals (19.1)

The key men

Cam Oliver – Everyone knows John Mooney is starting to fire, so the onus is on Oliver to go at the new import, with his ability to hit from range – he has made two or more triples in seven of his past eight games – a particular key in drawing Mooney away from the glass, where he grabs 38 per cent of Perth’s d-boards. Oliver averaged 20.3ppg on 8-of-17 from deep along with a whopping 15.3rpg in last year’s semi-finals, a repeat of which would go a long way to securing a Cairns W.

Bryce Cotton – The MVP has scored 59 points in his past two games and dished out 32 dimes in his past four. This is his first meeting with his undisputed bogey team, however, after the Snakes remarkably kept him to 14 points or fewer four times last season, with Bryce connecting at just 27 per cent in those games. However, in Game 1 of last year’s semi-finals he exploded for 42 points on 10-of-19 from range, so Cairns know the cost of not getting their coverages right.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">THIS GUY. W?W. <a href="https://t.co/yFrqd3D1zm">pic.twitter.com/yFrqd3D1zm</a></p>— Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1364115504248483840?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 23, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The quotes

It’s not hard to imagine the reaction of Perth Wildcats fans when news spread that Nick Kay had signed in Spain for the 2021 season.

In a cast of superstar big men that included Cam Oliver, Andrew Bogut, Daniel Johnson, Shawn Long and Will Magnay, none was more valuable to their team last season than Kay, who destroyed the Sydney Kings in the grand final series.

So it would be understandable if Cats fans felt like their Boomers power forward was irreplaceable, and they may well be right.

But if you were going to find someone to try and fill Kay’s all-court hole, you couldn’t do much better than John Mooney.

“He's fitting in like he’s played for five years with us, not seven games,” coach Trevor Gleeson said.

“He’s doing everything that a coach asks for. He’s working hard defensively, he’s stretching the court offensively and he’s just got a great nose for the rebound.

“He’s got a quick jump, probably a deceptive jump that gets the ball. He’s been a great asset to us.”

Mooney could not have made a bigger statement against the Kings on Tuesday, slotting into Kay’s role as a “box buster” – as described by commentary guru Liam Santamaria – to blow up Sydney’s attempts to box-and-one Bryce Cotton.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Players to have 30 points at 90%FG including at least one 3 pointer made and 18 rebounds in NBL history:<br><br>1. John Mooney<br><br>End of list.<br><br>via <a href="https://twitter.com/nblfacts?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@nblfacts</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL21?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL21</a> <a href="https://t.co/tt4NLux772">pic.twitter.com/tt4NLux772</a></p>— The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1364386215961665537?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 24, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The result was a myriad of open looks which Mooney knocked down with only one solitary exception as he scored 30 points on 12-of-13 shooting.

“When Bryce Cotton gets a stupendous amount of defence on him, it leaves a guy like me open so I think it’s easy when I get open looks so I’m just going to continue to knock them down,” Mooney said.

The rookie import is selling himself short there, having produced an all-around game Kay would be proud of with 18 boards, 3 assists and 2 blocks.

Of course, Cairns fans experienced an understandably similar feeling of dread when it was announced DJ Newbill would be in Japan this year.

Like Kay, the Best Defensive Player from NBL20 delivered in a whole world of areas for his team, not least of all his ability to deliver points when the offence broke down.

The Taipans haven’t been able to replace that, but seeing Kouat Noi take Melbourne for 27 points on Tuesday would have delivered a dose of hope, especially coming just two games after his 18-point effort against New Zealand.

“Just keep getting better, I continue to watch film with the coaches individually, just take different stuff I can improve on and show it on the court,” Noi said.

If he can continue to fill the scoreboard it will take heat off Scott Machado, but just as importantly for coach Mike Kelly, his athletic swingman needs to bring heat at the defensive end so his point guard isn’t constantly defending the opposition’s best player.

“He’s in a good place in his basketball journey, and his decisions are getting better as he gets more experience playing at the three spot,” Kelly said.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Gatorade We Fuel You Player in Focus ?? Kouat Noi<a href="https://twitter.com/KouatN?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@KouatN</a> leads all scorers at the half with Sssssseventeen points ?<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBLCup?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBLCup</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL21?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL21</a> <a href="https://t.co/TYtF6nX376">pic.twitter.com/TYtF6nX376</a></p>— The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1363784564821291008?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 22, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“What I’m most looking forward to is for him to continue defending these great players like Scottie Hopson, Mitch McCarron, (Yudai) Baba, and keep making them go through his chest to score.”

That’s the big question for Cairns ahead of Friday’s clash, who will guard Cotton? Newbill led the charge so effectively last year, but surely coach Kelly can’t ask Machado to ice Bryce and run the team’s offence for 30-plus minutes?

In reality, it needs to be a team effort, and Cotton has immense respect for this Taipans unit after last year’s epic semi-final series.

“They’re pretty much the same team, I would say, as last year with the exception of Newbill who’s a pretty big loss,” Cotton said.

“But they’re a very talented team, super athletic, so we’re going to have to match their energy and make life difficult for all their key players.”

For Cotton, disrupting the Snakes’ clinical, Machado-driven offence is the key to remaining undefeated in the NBL Cup.

“If they get comfortable, if they find a groove early in the game, then they’re going to be a tough team to beat and they’ll start making shots in succession,” he said.

“If we make life hard for them, I’d like to think we’d have favourable odds.”