R16 Preview: Melbourne United vs Perth Wildcats

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Wednesday 5 May

Where: John Cain Arena, Melbourne

Broadcast: ESPN; Sky Sports NZ; SBS On Demand; Twitch


The last time
Perth 89 (Cotton 29, Wagstaff 14, Mooney 13) d Melbourne 85 (Landale 20, Barlow 11, Hopson 10, McDaniel 10), Round 6, John Cain Arena

This NBL Cup meeting was wild, with 10 lead changes in the second half as these Hungry Jack’s NBL powerhouses launched one parry and thrust after another. While there were plenty of stars on the floor, Mitch Norton was one of the most influential, his 6 points, a dime and a steal in two minutes to end the third term launching a 19-7 Cats’ run that det up some Bryce Cotton heroics. For United, their five turnovers in seven minutes surrounding three-quarter-time, which Perth turned into 10 points, proved to be their downfall.


The now
They haven’t fallen since Round 10, however, and are a remarkable 17-1 in non-NBL Cup games this season. After dispatching the third-placed Kings with a stunning final quarter, United now face their other top four rivals in the next eight days, with Perth twice and SE Melbourne this Saturday. Three wins and they’ll be at least 4.5 games clear of the Wildcats with just seven to play, handing them home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.

The champs have won just three of their past six contests, and now face a home-and-way double against United, with a date with the Breakers sandwiched in between. Given they’ve lost their past two to the Kiwis, and their shooters are struggling to land from the land of plenty, there is a real chance they could soon be fighting to retain second. Of course, a pair of wins over Melbourne and the race for the minor premiership is squarely back on.


The stats

 - Over their past seven games, Perth have averaged just 6.8 three-pointers at 27 percent, and have not hit more than 9 in a night. Prior to that they averaged 10.1 treys at 34 percent

 - The Cats won points from turnovers 24-13 in their Round 6 win over United, forcing 17 miscues. In Perth’s Round 4 loss both teams were square with 15 points from turnovers

 - Melbourne lead points in the paint 70-40 in this season series, shooting 58 percent from two-point range to the Wildcats’ 42 percent

 - United have held Perth to 39 percent field-goal shooting and 27 percent offensive rebounding. The Cats average 44 percent and 32 percent respectively against other teams


The key men

Bryce Cotton – It’s no secret the MVP going through a horror shooting slump at the moment – 32 percent from the field and 14-of-65 from deep in his past eight games – but he’s still been a big part of their wins. In their five victories in that stretch he’s shot 36-of-40 from the foul line, compared to just 9-of-9 in three defeats.

Melbourne held Cotton to 6-of-20 from the floor in Round 6, but he went 12-of-12 from the stripe and 5-of-13 from distance, his go-ahead triple in the final minute capping 15 final-quarter points in a match-winning display. The likes of Mitch McCarron, Shea Ili, Sam McDaniel and Yudai Baba will be out for vengeance.

Scotty Hopson – Perth’s defence is pretty impressive, sitting third in defensive rating, first for points allowed, first for opposition free-throw attempts and first for defensive three-point percentage. However, they allow 55 percent shooting inside the arc, something Melbourne has exploited in their two match-ups.

Levi Randolph has also exposed those defensive frailties in a pair of Breaker wins, suggesting the speed, athleticism and class of Hopson could be a game-breaker. He’s scored 43 points at 55 percent in his past 41 minutes, however against the Wildcats he’s managed just 19 points at 31 percent across two meetings.



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">TEAMWORK <a href="https://t.co/KF8CafCcis">pic.twitter.com/KF8CafCcis</a></p>&mdash; Melbourne United (@MelbUnitedHQ) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnitedHQ/status/1388730654687260676?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 2, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


The quotes

When you’re playing the champs, you want to be at your best, and for Melbourne that means having Jock Landale back from injury.

“We’ll have Jock back for the game on Wednesday, great to get him back quickly,” a relieved coach Dean Vickerman said.  

“We need that extra big against them, obviously they're a fantastic offensive rebounding team, he’s going to be really important with Mooney … so we look forward to slotting him straight back into the roster.

“We look forward to the games against Perth, we always have tough battles and I really enjoyed the game between Perth and New Zealand the other night, it was a tough contest and having three games against them, there’s no better preparation for the end of the year.”

New Zealand have shown it’s possible to take away Perth’s three-point shooting power, something United couple replicate with Landale protecting the paint in tandem with Jo Lual-Acuil, who swatted three Sydney shots on Sunday to take him to 10 blocks in the past three outings.

“The biggest impact that he had tonight … (was) challenging shots at the rim,” Vickerman said.

“There were some times where Casper went by us but blocking a couple of those at the rim ignited our break and saw Baba get out on the break and do some of the things that he does, that last line of defence from Jo tonight was outstanding.”



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Only Mitch McCarron exceeds 28 minutes per game for Melbourne, whereas three Wildcats are above that mark, Cotton and John Mooney combined for 69 per night.

Perth play at the league’s slowest statistical pace, while United are second fastest, and they’ll be looking to go at the Wildcats tiring legs, as they did to overrun the Kings, by using the versatility in their roster to present different-looking line-ups.

“I thought we did a better job in that second term and we kept the pace pretty high. Us playing at a higher tempo wore them down a little bit,” Vickerman said.

“We've got the depth if we see someone a bit flat we can shift people and I've got to continue to do that.

“Tonight we were down a big and we shift Scotty (Hopson) up a spot to the four-spot and he found advantages with his quickness to attack some of their bigs. It’s a nice thing to have. We were a point guard down and we shift him down to point guard as well.

“I think going through the season and all the injuries we've have, people playing other positions and getting good at playing that position, and the group being comfortable with that, has been something we’ve grown with.”



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">PERFECT PASS ? PERFECT FINISH <a href="https://t.co/ggwBrRFe9P">pic.twitter.com/ggwBrRFe9P</a></p>&mdash; Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1388413738533801995?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 1, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Ball control will be a critical factor for Perth to keep United in the half-court where the Cats execute the best, as will finding the balance between o-boards and containment in transition.

Impressively, United have pulled in 36 percent of available offensive rebounds in their past five games, starving opponents of chances to run. However, they’ll want to do better that their 67 percent defensive rebounding percentage in that stretch against the Cats.

Perth coach Trevor Gleeson know these battles are a physical grind that bring out the best in both teams, and wouldn’t want it any other way.

How will Mooney cope with the two-headed monster of Landale and Lual-Acuil? Can Mitch Norton slow Chris Goulding’s hot run of 18 triples in the past two games? Can Todd Blanchfield stay in front of Hopson? And can Bryce rediscover his three-ball?

“It’s a great measuring stick for us,” said Gleeson.

“Melbourne are on 11 games (won) in a row, obviously we have played them twice already here in Victoria early this season, so we haven’t seen them for a long time.

“Looking forward to the challenge, and measuring where we are in our season, where we need to get to and the guys are really anticipating a good game.”

“Melbourne’s like our second home. We got out of Perth when the first outbreak was happening and we were here for six weeks, so it’s familiar ground, familiar training facility, same hotel, so hopefully the same result as we were playing pretty good basketball then.”