R11 Preview: Melbourne United vs Perth Wildcats

When: 8pm (AEDT), Saturday 12 February, 2022

Where: John Cain Arena, Melbourne

Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Sky Sports NZ


Who won the last time?
Melbourne 81 (Landale 15, Goulding 14, Hopson 12, Peatling 12) d Perth 76 (Mooney 14, White 14, Blanchfield 11) – Grand Final Game 3, John Cain Arena, Melbourne

When United skipped 16 ahead in the opening term it seemed a case of how far Melbourne, especially with Mitch Norton unable to continue. But as they had all series, the wounded Wildcats showed the heart of a champion, and a Corey Shervill triple put them in front early in the third term. Mason Peatling stepped up as an unlikely hero with seven straight points to turn the tide, and United made enough plays down the stretch to seal their second title.


What happened last start?

Titles are the last thing on Melbourne’s mind after losses to Adelaide and Tasmania. For the first time since early in the season, United’s proactive physicality has been punished in recent games, their defensive intensity has dropped and the JackJumpers ran up 94 points. Melbourne had won 17 of their previous 19 games where they had reached 85 points.

Perth are 8-1 when they reach 83 points this season – they were 20-5 in NBL21 – and their offensive rating of 114.5 is a clear first, the rest of the league averaging a distant 104.6. That was on full display against the Phoenix, Cotton and Co shooting a blistering 13/27 from range over the final 26 minutes to blow the game open after a slow start.


Who’s in form?

Luke Travers – It’s fair to say LT had a coming out party in last year’s playoffs, but his 24-point, seven-rebound, four-triple, three-assist performance against South East Melbourne last week was at another level. He’s averaged 9ppg and 6.7rpg in under 19 minutes the past three games against United, and he’ll be crucial inside defensively when the Wildcats go to small ball.

Jo Lual-Acuil – Taking on one of the NBL’s best defensive bigs, JLA’s 26 points and 21 boards against the JackJumpers was nothing short of extraordinary. The rangy NBA prospect has accumulated 49 points at 63 per cent, 33 rebounds and four blocks over the past two games, and can safely lay claim to the in-form player in the competition over the past two rounds.

Who needs to be?

Majok Majok – With Matt Hodgson sidelined, much responsibility lies with Majok to get the defensive job done on Jo Lual-Acuil. While Perth’s 206cm centre may lack big Jo’s length, he is a thick body who can keep the wiry Lual-Acuil away from the paint, where 23 of his 26 points originated last week. Majok has averaged just 11 minutes over the past five games as the 'Cats have deployed smaller line-ups, but he needs to be ready to motor against JLA and Ariel Hukporti.

Caleb Agada – While Caleb’s shot has been wayward recently – just 1/17 from deep the past four games – the commentary around him lacking effort has been misguided. Agada has become Dean Vickerman’s go-to weapon defensively, probably leads the league in hand checks and arm bars, and is the team’s clear leader in plus-minus. He’s crucial against Bryce Cotton, but can he lay that level of physicality without the MVP contorting his way to calls?


Who’s statting up?

 - Agada has fouled out of Melbourne’s past two games, both losses, picking up a foul every 3:28 on court. In 10 games prior to that he had been whistled once every 9:20

 - United are 11.3 points per game better off with Agada on the court than benched. Only Jesse Wagstaff (11.5) is more valuable to his team by that measure, followed by Sam Froling (11.1), Xavier Cooks (10.9) and Bryce Cotton (9.9)

 - Over the past two seasons, Bryce Cotton has shot 35 free throws in four wins over Melbourne, compared to 20 in four losses

 - In Melbourne’s past three losses their opponents have averaged 28.7 free throws. In United wins they give up just 15.9

Who’s matching up?

Chris Goulding v Bryce Cotton – While these two will rarely match up, is there a better offensive duel in the NBL? Goulding showed his class against Tasmania, breaking a 24-shot drought to nail 29 points on 4/8 triples and 8/10 from the foul line to underline his NBL superstar status. Melbourne were +8 with CG43 on court, but -17 in his 6:22 on the bench.

The past four games Cotton has dropped 23.3ppg on 3.5 treys at a blistering 44 per cent. That’s not good news for United, given Perth are 12-0 the past two seasons when BC hits 40 per cent or better. Melbourne will run Agada, Shea Ili and Matthew Dellavedova at the MVP and run him off the arc, having kept Cotton to 14/53 from outside the past eight meetings.

Who’s talking the talk?

No team likes to be on a losing streak, but coming into a grand final rematch with Perth that will hand the winner top spot, the lessons Melbourne learned from the JackJumpers last Sunday could be invaluable.

“You’ve always got to lock in on key scorers, and you look at this one tonight and Magette and Adams after the first quarter, we did a pretty good job of holding those two to a total that’s winnable,” United coach Dean Vickerman said.

“Then you go to Perth and you say they’ve got two key guys you’ve got to restrict as best you can but you can’t let those other guys get off as well.”

That’s something Vickerman’s men didn’t do against Tasmania, who won bench points 32-11, and Jack McVeigh, MiKyle McIntosh, Matt Kenyon, Sam McDaniel and Fabijan Krslovic combined for 55 points at 53 per cent.

Against Perth, if Todd Blanchfield, Mitch Norton, Luke Travers and milestone man Jesse Wagstaff get the same freedom, it could be a long night for the defending champs.

“I think that’s when they're really dangerous when they have that third, fourth and fifth scorer doing their job as well,” Vickerman said.

“This will be a tough review session because we did a lot of things that need to be better to win a game against Perth.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">LT is lighting up John Cain Arena ?<br><br>24 points + 7 rebounds! <a href="https://t.co/9MsOgCZxDA">pic.twitter.com/9MsOgCZxDA</a></p>&mdash; Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1489912913259528195?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 5, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Of course, it starts with limiting Bryce Cotton and Vic Law, and the key to that is physicality and disruption from the first second of the shot clock until the last, something that didn’t happen against the JJs.

“There’s periods where we show what kind of defensive team we can be but it’s not consistent enough. I think that’s probably the most disappointing thing,” captain Chris Goulding said.

“When all 15 down the roster are engaged and locked in and blowing up screens and trying to make it difficult for the opposition, we’re a really tough team to score on.”

When every United player is invading their opponents’ cylinder, getting arms on the ball-handler, pushing screeners and checking cutters, that coordinated haze of physicality puts other teams on the back foot.

When that is inconsistent the fouls become obvious for officials to call, and that’s what’s happened the past two games, especially against the Tasmanians.

“We would do things that shot us in the foot, some fouls that put them on the line. Them shooting 30 free throws, any time we over-helped tonight they punished us,” Vickerman said.

But help is at hand, with Jack White and Ariel Hukporti back on deck after a COVID-enforced break last round.

“Jack and Ariel, you look at the individual rating of the top five defenders in the league and they're both there. There’s a reason why both those guys are there, the energy, the physicality, the athleticism, all those things they do,” Vickerman said.

“Ariel in his coverages right now has been outstanding, Jack can defend one-through-five, there are so many things he can do.”

Perth coach Scott Morrison is expecting Melbourne’s defensive best from earlier in the season when they look to bounce back on Saturday night.

“They’re going to make us work for our buckets,” he said.

“It’s that much more important that we do the same to them and I think we have a good half-court defence.

“I think we’re second or third in the half court but overall we’re fourth or fifth, so we have some little things to clean up if we want to get to the level we want to be at to contend for a championship.

“On paper, it’s the number one offence against the number one defence.”

That Perth offence racked up 101 points on the Phoenix last start, with 57 of those coming from Travers, Wagstaff, Norton and Majok at 68 per cent from the field.

That will leave Morrison confident his team can handle what Melbourne’s aggressive defence will throw at Cotton and Law.

“Our bench has been putting in a lot of hours, working really hard and not getting a lot of the glory so to speak,” he said.

“It was nice today, a couple of our bigger games had slower games for their standards and everybody stepped up and did their thing.”