Preview: Tasmania v South East Melbourne (Round 16)

When: 7.30pm (AEST), Wednesday 18 January 2023
Where: Silverdome, Launceston
Broadcast: ESPN; Foxtel; Kayo; Sky NZ
LIVE STATS AND BOX SCORE

Who won the last time?

Tasmania 99 (Doyle 25, White 18, Magette 14) d South East Melbourne 74 (Williams 21, Creek 18) – Round 13 at MyState Bank Arena, Hobart

South East Melbourne walked into Round 13 having won five of its previous six games - including clipping the Kings to put the top two within reach. They lost Ryan Broekhoff, Gary Browne and Zhou Qi in the process, then fell to Adelaide and Tasmania in a season-turning weekend where Trey Kell also went down. They didn’t fire a shot against the JackJumpers who forced them into error after error and shot them out of MyState Bank Arena with a blistering display, Milton Doyle was unstoppable and Isaac White was the x-factor who blew the game apart.

What happened last game?

The Phoenix walked into the State Basketball Centre on a five-game skid with their 10-3 starting five back in action against Brisbane on Monday, but they soon became 10-4 as Simon Mitchell’s men played Jason Cadee back into form and wasted a number of chances to break the game open. In contrast, Tassie have now won five of their past seven to move from the post-season fringes to within reach of third place, their dominant win over Adelaide has added to their percentage thanks to the hot hands of Doyle, Jack McVeigh and Rashard Kelly.

What’s working?

Not accuracy – There’s plenty to like about the Phoenix's ability to draw fouls, get offensive rebounds and find open men, but basketball is a hit-or-miss game and the Phoenix are missing far too often. Their three-point clip has languished with a percentage in the teens or twenties in seven of the past 16 outings. When Creek and Ryan Broekhoff – who average 3.3 triples at 38 per cent – go 1/12 and miss three go-ahead open treys in the final minute against Brisbane, it’s hard to win games.

Not ‘grit and grind’ – The JJs haven’t been the defensive team we’ve come to know in recent times, and have become more dependent on their scoring to win. Their past five wins have delivered 93.8ppg, compared to 81.5ppg in their previous four losses. What’s of note in those victories is they have averaged +7.2 on points in the paint, 20.6 free-throw attempts and 19.2 assists – up from -6.0, 15.6 and 15 over the rest of the season – as they get into the heart of the defence more they've been trying - and suceeding - in taking advantage of the significant increase in whistles at the basket.

What needs stopping?

Both sides of the screen – On Monday in Brisbane the Phoenix seemed to defend screening action in isolation by sticking tight to the screener on and off the ball and giving up plenty of easy looks inside. This led to Brisbane shooting at 59 per cent in the paint, with Jason Cadee going 8/12. The strategy of taking away the roll-man and exterior feeds against Josh Magette has been successful at times, but South East Melbourne will need to execute far better than they did with Cadee.

Creek & Sauce – How did Tasmania do against South East Melbourne’s dynamic frontcourt duo last time? It was a mixed bag. Their aggressive approach forced them into 11 combined turnovers, while the JackJumpers’ four bigs exploited SEM’s frontcourt for 15 offensive rebounds. However, Creek and Williams grabbed seven o-boards of their own and posted 39 of their team’s 74 points. Given Mitch expressed disgust that he and Sauce barely had a dip that day, Tasmania had better be ready for an interior onslaught this time around.

Who’s missing key men?

Tasmania is expected to be at full strength, while Zhou Qi is the only absentee for the Phoenix.

Who’s matching up?

Sam McDaniel v Gary Browne – The JackJumpers have suffocated SEM this season and forced 42 turnovers in two games, but they haven't faced Browne yet. Browne has the speed to expose pressure defences, but can also be disrupted by well-executed traps given his lack of size. The Phoenix are 10-5 with him in the line-up, but his assist-to-turnover ratio is 3.0 in wins compared to 1.5 in defeat. Will McDaniel and the JackJumpers choose chaos or containment?

Milton Doyle v Trey Kell III – Doyle was electric against the 36ers and racked up 28 points at 60 per cent as he scored at will and created plenty of openings for teammates. His past four games have now delivered 20.7ppg at 50 per cent, 4.7rpg and 4.0apg to strengthen his grip on an All-NBL First Team spot. Kell has been a quiet achiever at the defensive end after a slow start, but he’ll need plenty of help on the other side of the ball-screen on Wednesday.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The Doyle treatment ? watch now on ESPN via Kayo &amp; Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/fXCMPkQ2Tk">pic.twitter.com/fXCMPkQ2Tk</a></p>&mdash; Tasmania JackJumpers ? (@JackJumpers) <a href="https://twitter.com/JackJumpers/status/1613478714263900160?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 12, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

It’s ‘go time’ for the Tasmania JackJumpers. Just 11 days ago, having dropped four of their previous seven, the NBL’s newest team looked to be in the fight of their lives to stay in the top six.

But much-needed wins over Illawarra and Adelaide have pushed them back up to fourth spot with a chance claim third place and a home final first up if they can finish strong.

They will certainly have to earn that, however, facing four games in the next 11 days – against the Phoenix, Cairns, Sydney and Perth – starting with South East Melbourne at the Silverdome.

“I think our team is really focused and ready to go for this final push,” coach Scott Roth said.

“We’re super-excited to be up in Launceston and just be up in the north and north-west to represent the state again and defend the island.”

They’ve got a full battalion to do it with too. Their long stretches without Will Magnay, Sam McDaniel, Clint Steindl and Matt Kenyon has helped them build impressive depth.

With Steindl and Jack McVeigh rediscovering their perimeter touch, and Magnay, McDaniel and Kenyon stiffening the defence, this is a line-up to be reckoned with.

“I think everyone is back in form and Sam and Kenny have got practice under their belt now that they haven't had before with the group,” Roth said.

“Now we’re at full health, which is a good thing, it’s not anything other than me trying to make sure I can get minutes for guys.

“It will be difficult, they know that, I've stressed to them that I can’t play them all. We’ll have some strategies moving forward around who we get on the floor and how things play out.”

The inclusion of McDaniel and Kenyon is key for a team that leaked 93.3ppg in their past four losses, but held the 36ers to 82 points in a welcome return to their trademark of generating scores from their defence.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Mcveigh steps back for the triple <br><br>Watch live on ESPN via Kayo &amp; Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/CpN2lqyEJS">pic.twitter.com/CpN2lqyEJS</a></p>&mdash; Tasmania JackJumpers ? (@JackJumpers) <a href="https://twitter.com/JackJumpers/status/1613468549439442948?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 12, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“I thought it was our best game all year in my eyes, just the consistency of playing through four quarters and not having a lot of ebb and flow and up and down, we've been inconsistent quite a bit and today was just a solid effort across the board,” Roth said.

“Guys are doing the right things, they're all in about this team and this state and building this thing the right way.”

Star swingman Milton Doyle believes that selfless performance helped him get off the leash offensively.

“I made a couple of threes which opened up them trying to get out and trap me a little bit, our bigs got open and they made the right plays,” Doyle said.

“They made some good team effort plays and that made it easier for me to get some open drives at the end. A good team game from everyone made it easier for me.”

Doyle will sternly test SE Melbourne’s ability to navigate screening action, an area they were brutally exposed in as Brisbane ran up 30 points in the second term on Monday.

“I thought our second-quarter defence was very poor, we got hit on way too many screens, gave them way too many open looks,” coach Simon Mitchell said.

“I felt like we were getting over the top late because we got clipped on them which generally means you’re not into the ball to start with.

“We've got to put out the fire first, be into the ball, fight over that screen and be able to fight back in front.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Nothing getting past Sauce! ?<br><br>? <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> ?? <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/Foxtel?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Foxtel</a> <a href="https://t.co/oNLbaIgBvo">pic.twitter.com/oNLbaIgBvo</a></p>&mdash; South East Melbourne Phoenix (@SEMelbPhoenix) <a href="https://twitter.com/SEMelbPhoenix/status/1614924860911947776?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 16, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

No doubt Mitchell will identify he needs to be quicker to adjust either personnel or strategy if the JJs enjoy similar success, but he is juggling a jigsaw puzzle right now with the return of three starters from injury lay-offs.

“Obviously there was some gassing going on, we had to try and get those rotations in real quick,” he said.

“Tonight I thought there were signs of unfamiliarity, a lot of tipped passes, a lot of passes that hit the floor and we had to go and retrieve it an regroup and the try to get something started.

“Fifteen turnovers is way too much, and I think a lot of those there was an element of not being on the floor and working together.”

The reality is they need to re-gel really quickly, because a loss to Tasmania could have the Phoenix 1.5 games out of sixth spot by Saturday night with only three games to play.

It’s a challenge Mitchell isn’t shying away from, knowing his team has one of the NBL’s best records when close to full strength.

“We get to play teams that we’re in this dogfight with, which is great, so it’s like double win. You go in and get your win, it’s a loss for them, it mounts up, but we've got to go and take care of our business,” he said.

“Going against a team like Tasmania that is ultra-physical, as soon as you cross half-court they're hitting you, I think it’s going to be a really good test for us.

“We’ll have to be safe with the ball and execute and make sure we do all the little things really well.”