Preview: Tasmania v Brisbane (Round 6)

When: 5.30pm (AEDT), Saturday 5 November 2022
Where: MyState Bank Arena, Hobart
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ
Live scores & stats

Who won last time?

Tasmania 90 (Doyle 32, McVeigh 17, Kelly 14) d Brisbane 86 (Johnson 24, Sobey 16, Cadee 14) OT – Round 2 at MyState Bank Arena

Remarkably, the Bullets led this by 16 with 30 seconds remaining in the first half, and by 13 three minutes into the third term, but Milton Doyle, Jack McVeigh and Rashard Kelly combined for 28 points in a 39-17 run that brought the Anthill crowd to fever pitch. Tyler Johnson silenced them with a dagger triple to force overtime, but in the final five minutes Tassie’s terrific trio put on 10 points, with Kelly’s pull-up trifecta sealing a classic W.

What happened last game?

That loss was one of five in a row for the Bullets, but they’ve struck back twice at the expense of the hapless Hawks, the second meeting in Brisbane a ruthless destruction as Nathan Sobey had an NBL23 coming out party. The JackJumpers’ staying power shone through again in Perth on Thursday, outscoring the 'Cats 44-28 over the final 15:15 as they went ballistic from long range and dominated the glass at both ends.

What’s working?

Grit and grind – Yes the JackJumpers shot 14/29 from range on Thursday, including 8/13 in the final 15:15, but the fact they had 17 more field-goal attempts than Perth was more significant. Tassie pulled in 15 offensive rebounds from 42 misses (36%) – while allowing Perth only five from 33 misses (15%) – to be +10 on o-boards and +9 on second chance points in an eight-point win, Matt Kenyon and Jack McVeigh leading the way with four each.

Balance – While Brisbane had been stunning from the arc, landing 12.8 at 44 per cent in their opening five games, that didn’t convert to Ws. Part of the reason was triples were accounting for 45 per cent of their field-goal attempts, while they were taking just 15.4 free throws, so when the shots weren’t dropping, there weren’t other avenues. In back-to-back wins over Illawarra, the Bullets averaged 20.5 foul shots and took 37 per cent of their shots from outside, giving a nice balance of 40 points from threes and 44 from ‘ones and twos’.

What needs stopping?

Nathan Sobey – Fair to say Sobes wasn’t interested in balance in Round 5, he was hot, dropping 20 of his 22 points in the first half to blow the game open. He drained 5/8 from deep, and when that wasn’t there went 2/2 inside and dished five assists. If the Sobes of old is truly back, this is a huge challenge for Matt Kenyon and Sam McDaniel, given the Bullets’ Jedi master averages 20ppg at 44 per cent from deep at MyState Bank Arena.

Milton Doyle – Brisbane have gone big the past two weeks with Aron Baynes, Harry Froling, Gorjok Gak and Tyrell Harrison all in the line-up. Their zoning and drops defence held the Hawks to 31 per cent two-point shooting, with Baynes and Harrison swatting four shots when challenged. However, Doyle doesn’t need to get to the rim, his pull-up is money, as shown in his 32-point haul against Brisbane in Round 2, where he went 5/7 on mid-range twos, with four from straight on. He’ll be testing the ball-screen defence early and often.

Who’s matching up?

Jarred Bairstow v Aron Baynes – Is there a more physical defender than Bairstow? The big Bear loves invading his opponent’s cylinder, restricting his movement and trying to draw reactions. He wore Baynes down last time, but Aron is in better game shape now and his teammates have been finding him down low for a 14/28 inside return the past three games.

The benches – Since Tyler Johnson moved to the pine the Bullets are +25 in bench scoring and now rank number one in that category with 32.1ppg at a league-leading 49 per cent. In second place is Tasmania with 31.7ppg at an NBL-high 44 per cent from deep, setting the scene for a pivotal bench battle, given these teams rank eighth and ninth in starter points.

Josh Magette v Jason Cadee – In JackJumper losses, Magette has shot 4/20 from distance, compared to a sizzling 14/30 (47%) in victories, including 3/6 in Friday’s final quarter. His defence will need to be en pointe on Saturday though, Cadee averaging 16.7ppg on 45 per cent perimeter shooting in three games as a starter, along with 4.3apg and +16.3 per night.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Don’t worry, we’ll make sure we collect Jet from the RAC carpark before we head home ??? <a href="https://t.co/Slw68lQVOz">pic.twitter.com/Slw68lQVOz</a></p>&mdash; Tasmania JackJumpers ? (@JackJumpers) <a href="https://twitter.com/JackJumpers/status/1588145866522914817?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 3, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Their short history tells us there aren't many things uglier than a JackJumpers offence at the start of a season.

However, it’s also becoming clear that once the adjustments are made, that caterpillar becomes a beautiful butterfly very quickly.

“My assistant coaches did a fantastic job of breaking things down the last three weeks and being able to pick apart some things we could hang our hat on and stay poised,” Scott Roth said.

“It gives us predictable shots, it gives us predictable looks and you can live with that.”

That quote was from Round 10 last season, after the JJs broke out of their offensive slumber in style with a 94-point beatdown on Melbourne, the best defence in the league.

It hasn’t quite taken so long this season, with three new pieces instead of 15, but the process has been the same.

“We do quite a bit of drill work. My assistant coaches are incredible,” Roth said in Perth on Thursday.

“Jacob Chance, Mark Radford and Jack Fleming are breaking down our offence and getting us to the second side and trusting that the ball will come back to you.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Yes general ? Watch now on <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@espnausnz</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> &amp; <a href="https://twitter.com/Foxtel?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Foxtel</a> <a href="https://t.co/e4XII3vTiQ">pic.twitter.com/e4XII3vTiQ</a></p>&mdash; Tasmania JackJumpers ? (@JackJumpers) <a href="https://twitter.com/JackJumpers/status/1588127160430362624?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 3, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Over the first three-and-a-half games of the season, Tassie were averaging a lowly 74 points per 40 minutes, which has since leapt to 85.3 per 40 minutes, and 90.4 if you take out their Round 5 Auckland nightmare.

Of course, the turning point was half-time in their last battle with Brisbane.

Trailing 45-31 and with 0-4 appearing a likelihood, coach Roth made the important decision to throw Rashard Kelly to the wolves.

Prior to that, the Tassie play-caller had been treating Kelly as the second coming of impact-import MiKyle McIntosh, giving him just 22 minutes per game and only seven in the first half against the Bullets.

Rash showed he is much more than a sparkplug in his stunning second half and overtime, piling on 10 points, eight rebounds and two assists after interval, including the dagger, game-sealing, pull-up triple in the final minute of overtime.

“Rashard’s been fantastic, he’s been doing it at both ends of the floor and it’s my bad really these first two or three games not getting him more minutes,” Roth said post-game.

“He’s played the three, played the four, been at the five, he’s guarded just about everybody on the floor, he's another guy that’s just no nonsense and goes about his business ...

“When he’s playing all those different positions it’s hugely valuable to us and it gives us more size and a little bit bigger athlete.”

While his numbers are good, his defensive versatility is even better, and is a key in the JackJumpers putting serious heat on opposition guards, especially coming off ball-screens.

Tassie forced Brisbane in to 18 turnovers last time, their eight-point advantage in points from turnovers pivotal in an overtime game.

The Bullets are a slicker unit now, however, much better at finding Aron Baynes and Co on the roll, and when they execute their pick-and-pop into a dribble hand-off, good things usually happen.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">TY THROWS IT DOWN!<br><br>Watch on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RIVERCITYSTRONG?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#RIVERCITYSTRONG</a> <a href="https://t.co/iD1scnTfTA">pic.twitter.com/iD1scnTfTA</a></p>&mdash; Brisbane Bullets (@BrisbaneBullets) <a href="https://twitter.com/BrisbaneBullets/status/1585561289648398337?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 27, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


With three high-class guards in good form and averaging a combined 11.5 assists, the Bullets backcourt will be looking to punish any overplays.

No. 1 on that list is Nathan Sobey, who is near unstoppable if he can hit on-balls with pace, and was back to his best for the first time since his knee injury in the first half against Illawarra.

“Difference-maker. (He’s) getting his legs back, getting his touch back. He’s that type of impactful player,” Brisbane coach James Duncan said afterwards.

“Two years ago he was top three in MVP voting and everyone remembers what he was like as a player.”

When he goes to the bench, the steady play of Tyler Johnson takes over, shooting 51 per cent from the floor and 53 percent from deep as he plays a super-efficient role rather than trying to dominate.

“A guy like Tyler, he’s got NBA experience, he’s made millions and millions of dollars in his career,” Harry Froling said.

“He could come in here and say, ‘I’m the big dog and want to play 35 minutes a game’, but he talks, leads, communicates.”

And then there’s Cadee, celebrating game 350 of an understated career that has been all about making his team’s offence hum.

“He’s the best teammate I’ve played with. Love playing with him and being around him both on and off the court,” Sobey said.

“He’s a great person to have around the club. He really does what he can for everyone else and puts himself next in line after that.”