Preview: Tasmania v Adelaide (Round 15)

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Thursday 12 January, 2023
Where: MyState Bank Arena, Hobart
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ
LIVE STATS AND BOX SCORE

Who won the last time?

Adelaide 93 (Cleveland 20, Drmic 16, Dech 12) d Tasmania 82 (Doyle 18, Magette 13, White 12) – Round 11, Adelaide Entertainment Centre

Tasmania looked to be pulling off their usual fourth-quarter heroics when they led by six with seven minutes to play after recovering an 11-point deficit, but Antonius Cleveland did what Antonius Cleveland does and dropped back-to-back triples before executing trademark steal-and-dunk to lift the roof off the Adelaide Entertainment Centre and change the game. The 36ers finished the night on a 24-7 run to capitalise on a massive second-half rebounding performance.

What happened last game?

The 12-10 JackJumpers hung on in the final term in Wollongong to secure a much-needed win that was largely sparked by the energy of Rashard Kelly. Scott Roth’s men sit 0.5 games clear of the seventh-placed Phoenix with Adelaide, SE Melbourne, Cairns, Sydney and Perth next on the menu. The 11-10 36ers have won five straight at home and played well enough to beat New Zealand but missed two open triples in the final minute to lose by just two points. Their next two road games in Tasmania and Perth could tell the tale of their season.

What’s working?

Sotto & Robo – When Kai Sotto is in the starting five Adelaide are 5-2 with a pair of one-bucket losses to top three teams - after going 3-4 with two double-figure losses in the previous seven - thanks to better team balance. Against NZ the Sotto/Franks combination was a difference-maker in its own right and combined for 36 points, 18 rebounds, three steals and two blocks. They scored 26 points at 61 per cent in the 20:06 they shared the court together.

The four-spot – Tasmania’s power forward duo has been impressive the past two games with their high-energy play, Rashard Kelly and Jack McVeigh combine for 29.5ppg at 47 per cent, 10rpg, 3.5 o-boards, 3.0 assists and 1.5 steals in a touch over 40 minutes per night.  They didn’t have the same impact in Adelaide in Round 11 though, with just 16 points on 7/23 from the field in 51 minutes, and their battle with Franks on Thursday will be pivotal.

What needs stopping?

Interior scoring – The JackJumpers’ interior deficiencies are starting to become a concern. Sam Froling racked up 21 points at 64 per cent inside on Tuesday along with eight dimes and four o-boards after Marcus Lee dominated with 22 points on 11/13 last Saturday with four offensive rebounds. How can the JackJumpers maintain their ball pressure and denial in the passing lanes without giving up the 61 per cent inside they’ve leaked the past two games?

Sloppiness – That ball pressure will be super important against Adelaide, who largely outplayed the Breakers but fell due to sloppily coughing the ball up 23 times and being outscored 28-15 on points off turnovers points. The 36ers are +11 on turnovers in their 11 wins, but in 10 losses they are +52 and outscored by 86 off them. Remarkably, they had just five miscues last time against Tassie, with their starting five only giving up the ball twice in a combined 127 minutes which the key to one of their best wins of the season.

Who’s missing key men?
Both teams are expected to be at full strength for Thursday's game.

Who’s matching up?

Josh Magette v Mitch McCarron – Tempo will be all-important in this clash and Tasmania will be keen to stop the 36ers getting into flow in transition, while Adelaide want to avoid being forced to defend for the best part of 24 seconds and then play walk-it-up offence against set pressure defence. Magette has pinched 26 steals in the past six games to just 11 turnovers, and the ability of McCarron, Cleveland and Sunday Dech to force him into rushed decisions one way, then protect the ball going the other way, could be a decisive factor.

Milton Doyle v Antonius Cleveland – Is there a player in NBL23 who can single-handedly change a game like Cleveland? After shooting 21 per cent from range at the Hawks, AC’s 36 per cent conversion this season has made him a true offensive weapon and opened up his driving game. Of course, his defence is still the juggernaut of his arsenal, and his battle with Doyle will be worth the price of admission alone. The JackJumpers' gun import only managed to fire off 11 shot attempts last time they met.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">?????? &#39;til the end. <a href="https://t.co/rsWgd0ea45">pic.twitter.com/rsWgd0ea45</a></p>&mdash; Adelaide 36ers (@Adelaide36ers) <a href="https://twitter.com/Adelaide36ers/status/1611957717475950594?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 8, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

With eight seconds remaining in their loss to Melbourne United and losing by an unsurmountable nine points, JackJumpers coach Scott Roth called time-out and ran a play that resulted in a two-point bucket for Rashard Kelly.

Fast forward three days and he’s making a statement about not taking shots late in the game when the result is beyond doubt.

Last season Roth refused to answer questions about the post-season, wisely stating that after 28 games the ladder will be what the ladder will be. In NBL23, he’s talking about making and missing playoffs.

In Tasmania’s first season, their well-respected coach was a model of consistency and his team followed suit.

In its sophomore season that consistency has waned from both coach and playing group.

“It wasn’t pretty and there are a lot of areas we’re just not consistent in,” Roth said after his team’s hard-fought win over Illawarra.

“Our offence has been solid, it’s better than last year in general, our overall scoring and pace that we’re playing at, our defence has slipped in quarters, not total games, we have bad quarters that are unrecoverable at times, or we’ve walked team to the foul line quite a bit.”

Part of that defensive inconsistency is Roth trying to figure out how to implement his combative style with the tighter officiating that has come into play since November.

Initially that resulted in the JackJumpers giving up bunches of free throws, but after they dialled back the pressure they gave up back-to-back losses to Adelaide and Cairns where they forced just 14 turnovers in 80 minutes.

Roth then re-upped the pressure and got his team to extend their pick-up points and be more physical on the ball.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="nl" dir="ltr">ALLEY OOFTTT ? <a href="https://t.co/GdBPoPTQXD">pic.twitter.com/GdBPoPTQXD</a></p>&mdash; Tasmania JackJumpers ? (@JackJumpers) <a href="https://twitter.com/JackJumpers/status/1609427042474549251?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 1, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The result was forcing a bunch of turnovers against undermanned opponents but giving up a bunch of easy buckets to the league’s better outfits, leaving the JackJumpers trying to find the right balance.

“I think containment on the ball and guarding it slightly better, but more importantly for us is the discipline of we want teams to be sped up, but we don’t want to be just giving up lay-ups in the process of speeding these teams up,” Roth said after the Hawks game.

“In the first seven or eight minutes (the Hawks) didn’t score in the half-court, they scored out of our press, which is good for us at times, but we have to have a happy medium of getting the ball levelled off.

“The other thing is just the consistency across the board of doing their jobs in our philosophy of how we guard.”

However, Roth knows it’s more about how you attack against Adelaide, with Antonius Cleveland and company winning games on the back of their own disruptive defence.  

“They're big and athletic and they’ll be in the passing lanes, they’ve got aggressive defenders, we've got to value the ball and not turn it over,” he said.

“They’ve got a lot of guys that can score the ball and they have a bunch of guys that can really put a lot of pressure on you.

“You’re never too far ahead of them or too far behind them, just with their explosiveness, and Cleveland’s risen to the top as the best defender in the league in my opinion, he’s just everywhere and causing a lot of problems.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Hustlin&#39; at ???? ends!<br><br>? - <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> + <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> <a href="https://t.co/bSVt31VcuZ">pic.twitter.com/bSVt31VcuZ</a></p>&mdash; Adelaide 36ers (@Adelaide36ers) <a href="https://twitter.com/Adelaide36ers/status/1611305804841521153?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 6, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Adelaide will face some problems if they lose both road games to Tassie and Perth this round, but a pair of wins will have them 13-10 and clear in fourth place ahead of a trip to Brisbane.

“We're going in trying to get the two wins,” Robert Franks said.?

“We've got to be disciplined and ready to go. It's very crucial winning these two in a row...considering where they are on the ladder and we're all there even, to get a bit of separation with two wins would be real nice.”

To achieve that they simply can’t repeat the sloppiness that cost them dearly against New Zealand and that will put the game squarely on Tasmania’s terms.

It was an ominous sign for coach CJ Bruton on Sunday when his team committed a cross-court violation immediately from the jump ball.

“We shot ourselves, valuing the ball is a big key and we had 23 turnovers and how they come about, from the jump ball right going through the game,” Bruton said.

The upside of that, and the loss to Cairns, is the 36ers have shown they are at the level of the league’s best, and that has them filled with confidence heading to Tassie.

“I think everybody in the locker room and coaches feel like we can play with anybody, we need to have the right mindset, right mentality and right focuses going into games,” Franks added.

“We're focusing on one game at a time and winning those.”