Preview: Sydney v New Zealand (Round 16)

Friday, January 20, 2023

Sydney are looking to bounce back from Friday's loss and solidify top spot, while it's desperation time for New Zealand after losing four on the bounce.

When: 4pm (AEDT), Sunday 22 January, 2023
Where: Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney
Broadcast: 10 Peach; 10 Play; ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ
LIVE SCORES & STATS

Who won the last time?

Sydney 88 (Walton 21, Cooks 18, Simon 14) d New Zealand 81 (Le’afa 17, McDowell-White 16, Brown 15) – Round 10 at Spark Arena

For the second straight time Sydney blew the Breakers out of the water in the opening half, Xavier Cooks again the dominant factor as they extended their margin to 15 at three-quarter-time. Then the game changed, the Kings got mired in New Zealand’s defensive mud, scoring just nine points for the term, but despite some big buckets from Barry Brown and Will McDowell-White to bring the game to life, Sydney’s defence kept them at arm’s length.

What happened last game?

Sydney’s defence remained on the wrong side of the Nullarbor on Friday, conceding 111 points to Perth in a game played at the Kings’ preferred breakneck speed. There were no concerns offensively, racking up 104 behind DJ Vasiljevic’s hot hand. New Zealand’s offence has spluttered without Brown, managing just 76 in the loss to Illawarra and 74.7ppg in the past three outings. The Breakers have lost seven of their past nine and now face three games in six days against Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne to hang onto a spot in the six.

What’s working?

JD & DP – With one import missing, the other two have stepped up for New Zealand, Derek Pardon notching 19 points, 17 rebounds, 10 o-boards, two assists and two blocks against Illawarra, with NZ outscored by nine points in the 3:47 he rested. Jarell Brantley has been in beast mode since Brown’s injury, averaging 19.3ppg at 48 per cent and 7/14 from outside, 8.0rpg and 3.3 steals to be +11 in the three losses, his team -27 without him.

DJ & D-Dub – Vasiljevic was sizzling in Perth with 26 points at 75 per cent inside and 67 per cent outside. After shooting 7/47 in an eight-game perimeter drought, Vasiljevic has now landed 40 per cent or better in four of his past six, sparked by his 42-point, 10/14 career night against SEM in Walton’s absence. Derrick has also been hot since returning from injury, averaging 16.3ppg at 70 per cent inside to go with 5.0apg and 4.0rpg.

What needs stopping?

The Cookie bomber – Xavier Cooks throwing up four wayward long-range attempts summed up Sydney’s night in Perth, just not quite in sync. The massive blowout wins over Brisbane and Melbourne aside, Cooks had taken just 12 treys in 19 games leading in, usually expert at cutting into gaps for dunks and floaters rather than waiting on the perimeter. The X-man has scored 31 points in 44 minutes at 70 per cent against NZ – with only one shot coming from outside the paint – the Kings +19 with him playing and -8 the rest of the way.

Slow starts – The Breakers are -25 in their past three opening periods – averaging just 13.7 points – and +7 across the other nine quarters. Tardy starts aren't something new, trailing the Kings by 15 less than eight minutes into their opening clash and by 13 with nine minutes played in the return bout. It’s no secret New Zealand rely on their physicality to grind teams down over time, but they must tick the scoreboard over early by feeding their import bigs, who’ve taken five interior attempts between them in two first terms against Sydney.

Who’s missing key men?

Barry Brown Jr remains sidelined for New Zealand, while the Kings are expected to be at full strength.

Who’s matching up?

Tim Soares & Jordan Hunter v Dererk Pardon – The Breakers’ big man doesn’t like being beaten – his response to two down games was immense on Thursday – and he was smashed on the glass last time these teams met, grabbing just three defensive boards in 29 minutes while Soares and Hunter combined for five o-boards. Soares has averaged 15.3ppg at 59 per cent inside and 40 per cent outside along with 2.3 offensive rebounds in his past three games.

Derrick Walton Jr v Will McDowell-White – Two of the best passing point men in the NBL go head-to-head, with Walton ranking second for assists at 6.3ppg, a mere 0.1 behind Gary Browne, and the Kings 8-1 when he dishes above that average. McDowell-White would be a red-hot chance for the new Next Generation Award if born 18 days later, currently sitting fourth in dimes at 6.0apg and averaging a league-best 7.6 in his past eight games.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Derrick hustlin' from both ends <br><br>Catch it LIVE on <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> via <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> + <a href="https://twitter.com/Foxtel?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Foxtel</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeTheKings?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeTheKings</a> <a href="https://t.co/YABqS2TtrK">pic.twitter.com/YABqS2TtrK</a></p>— Sydney Kings (@SydneyKings) <a href="https://twitter.com/SydneyKings/status/1616403941775794177?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 20, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Xavier Cooks has tortured the New Zealand Breakers this season, but in the final quarter of their Round 10 clash the MVP candidate went scoreless and had two turnovers, something former teammate Tom Vodanovich was happy to take credit for.

“He couldn’t score on me in training, he still can’t score on me, so we’ll see him next time,” the Kiwi power forward said post-game.

Yet while the Breakers have taken a couple of moral victories from fourth periods in this season series – outscoring the champs 48-26 – they desperately need some real victories to make the post-season.

If they can’t break their drought against the Kings on Sunday, and the Phoenix beat the Wildcats, it will only be percentage keeping them inside the top six.

While it may have looked like their four match-ups with Brisbane and Illawarra on the run home would make playoffs a ‘monty’, things can change very quickly in the NBL.

“Basketball is just a game of momentum within a game and within a season, you go on runs, there’s ebbs and flows and ups and downs,” captain Tom Abercrombie said.

“We had a great run to start with, we’re struggling to get that momentum back at the moment, but all it takes is one shot, one little thing to change, one person to step up and change that energy and momentum and you go on another run again.

“It’s not over for us, we’ve got a great challenge going into this last stretch to build momentum again and get that playoff spot we cherish.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Come fly with DP ? <br><br>We are live Sky Sport 2 and Prime <a href="https://t.co/A8TjHhgHaG">pic.twitter.com/A8TjHhgHaG</a></p>— Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1615963682894405633?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 19, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Coach Mody Maor is trying to get his team’s focus back on the next possession, not the big picture.

“When you have something you work really hard for and you really cherish then you’re a little bit scared to lose it sometimes,” he said.

“That playoff spot for us is extremely precious, it was our main goal when we started the season and we’re playing with a little bit of added weight and pressure.

“I truly believe this is a growing step for our group and that all the work we’ve put in is going to show. We’re going to overcome, play better, win games and achieve our goals.”

Their first goal needs to be a fast start against Sydney, which requires intelligent shot selection, an application to defensive transition and strong wall-ups in the paint against penetration.

The Breakers will know if they can be level-pegging at three-quarter-time they are a chance against the fading Kings, who leaked 35 points in the final term in Perth.

“That’s now 23 games this year we’ve had a lead in the final quarter, that’s every single one, and we’ve lost six. We’ve got to better about that,” coach Chase Buford said.

“I’m proud of the guys for fighting back, but from our perspective it was not a well-played defensive game to our principles at all. It felt like we were not us tonight, defensively.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Dangerous day to be a rim at RAC Arena. ?<br><br>BC flies and the Red Army flies with him!<br><br>? Watch live on ESPN via Kayo & Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/ZzKSPdzqkh">pic.twitter.com/ZzKSPdzqkh</a></p>— Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1616396511650402306?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 20, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That was in part because Buford and Co have changed their usually rock-solid defensive rules to deal with Bryce Cotton, opening up penetration.

The man who can create some havoc for New Zealand, Barry Brown, is sidelined, while a back ailment for Izayah Le’afa means the Breakers backcourt will have their hands full with Derrick Walton, DJ Vasiljevic, Shaun Bruce and Angus Glover.

“Barry’s a very important player for us, but we've had the privilege this year of playing one game with a full roster, so us missing players is something that we’re used to, something that we know how to overcome,” coach Maor said.

“We’re missing also Izayah’s contribution, so we’re a little bit thin at the guard spots, but it’s no excuse.”

For four-time champion Tom Abercrombie, while there have been ups and downs this season, after five years outside the playoffs, just having the chance to make it is exciting.

“I think it’s a good thing that we’re in this position. We’ve had a tough couple of years and (we’re) playing games that mean something at this time of year,” he said.

“I’m happy we’re in this position, these games are fun. It’s not fun to lose them because they mean more but it’s a good position to be in. It’s the kind of basketball you want to play.”