Preview: Sydney v New Zealand (Game 5)

Tuesday, March 14, 2023

It's all on the line as Sydney and New Zealand conclude an epic Championship Series with Game 5 at Qudos Bank Arena on Wednesday night.

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Wednesday 15 March, 2023
Where: Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo Freebies; Foxtel; Sky NZ; Prime NZ
Download the free NBL App for live scores & stats

Who won the last time?

New Zealand 80 (Brantley 23, Brown 20, McDowell-White 19) d Sydney 70 (Walton 18, Glover 12, Cooks 10) d – Game 4, Spark Arena, Auckland
New Zealand’s stars made sure the epic NBL23 Championship Series headed to five games as Barry Brown, Jarell Brantley and Will McDowell-White scored 22 of their team’s 26 final-quarter points to stave off a torrential Sydney Kings storm. The Breakers brought their trademark physicality as they held the reigning champs to 27 first-half points and built a 15-point lead just before intermission.

However, Derrick Walton, Angus Glover, Xavier Cooks and Jordan Hunter brought the visitors back from the brink, combining for 34 points and six assists as Sydney unleashed a 36-21 run in 15 minutes bracketing the second and fourth terms to have their side poised for a run at the title. Enter Brown, who scored seven points in three minutes to put out the Kings’ fire and set Spark Arena alight.

What’s working?

Freeing Will – Justin Simon played just 21 minutes in Game 4 despite not being in foul trouble, after playing 26, 25 and 25 in the opening three contests. In 19 minutes without Simon on the floor, New Zealand scored at a rate of 90.5 points per 40 minutes at 47 per cent, compared to 70.5 points per 40 minutes at 42 per cent the rest of the game.

Is there an injury concern for the Kings’ Larry Sengstock Medal fancy? If not, Simon needs to max his minutes on McDowell-White – who scored 11 points in 17 minutes with his rival seated in Game 4 – and Chase Buford must consider whether to keep switching the guard-to-guard screens that successfully got WMW free of his game two and three tormentor.

Sticking with the system – Only once have Sydney lost two in a row, and their bad defensive nights often came when mixing up their defensive rules against Bryce Cotton and Perth or DJ Hogg and Cairns. When they stick to their basics of ball pressure while protecting the rim, good things happen. They didn’t produce that same heat on the ball on Sunday.

New Zealand did, forced penetration to the baseline and packed the paint, negating Simon’s roaming influence. With the Breakers’ weakside defenders splitting the shooters expertly, Sydney took 26 two-point field goals from outside the no-charge zone, compared to just eight in Game 3. The Kings must solve this riddle or NZ will cook up the same dish.

What needs stopping?

X missing the spot – For most of this season it hasn’t mattered who was in the paint, Xavier Cooks has finished at a deadly clip. Up until Game 1 of the series with Cairns he was connecting at 62 per cent inside, but since then, with multiple leg injuries to deal with, he’s slipped to 38 per cent without his usual mobility and lift. He’s played mostly a decoy role this series with 25 shot attempts, but the Kings need him converting the chances he gets.

Jarell Brantley – Cooks’ injuries are also impacting the other end, and once Brantley discovered his rival is no longer able to hold his ground the bull-strong Breaker went at him repeatedly, going 6/9 in the paint in Game 4. Interestingly, JB is 11/18 inside in the two games at Spark Arena, but just 3/12 in two at Qudos Bank Arena. Can he muscle up in the decider? And will we see Kouat Noi play increased minutes at power forward?

Who’s missing key men?

Both teams are expected to be at full strength.

Who’s matching up?

Derrick Walton v Barry Brown – The Kings would have taken holding Brown to 23/67 shooting (34%) over the first four games of the series, but he showed in Sunday’s final term how game-changing he can be, even on an inefficient night. Walton stepped up his defensive efforts on New Zealand’s danger man in Game 4, while also carrying the load offensively with 15 shot attempts. That just highlighted how much the Breakers shut down their ball movement, however, and Sydney are 1-4 when their PG takes 14 or more shots.

Tim Soares v Dererk Pardon – While Dererk’s defence has been outstanding, the way Soares and the Kings have defended has made life hard for him as a roller, post-up option and offensive rebounder – averaging 1.8, down from 3.1 in 31 games prior – and in Game 4 he had just one field-goal attempt. Soares was superb around the rim in Game 3, but the Breakers shut the paint effectively on Sunday, and with the Brazilian an uncharacteristic 2/9 from deep this series, he needs to find his range to draw defence out.

Angus Glover v Rayan Rupert – In the Breakers’ past two losses to Sydney, Tom Vodanovich, Tom Abercrombie and Rupert were goaded into 21 heaves from deep. Coach Mody Maor responded by sitting Vodanovich on Sunday and, while Rupert was in attack mode, he couldn’t finish and played just 3:25. Can he make an impact in Game 5? Glover is constantly making an impact, and in Game 4 went 4/5 from deep while his teammates hit 4/17. If Sydney are to get this game at its preferred speed, they need Glover’s energy at both ends.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The red-hot Glover ties his career-high of four with this crucial triple ?<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeTheKings?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeTheKings</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBLFinals?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBLFinals</a> <a href="https://t.co/jFdJ9M2Sz0">pic.twitter.com/jFdJ9M2Sz0</a></p>— Sydney Kings (@SydneyKings) <a href="https://twitter.com/SydneyKings/status/1634812911615897600?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 12, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

One thing New Zealand coach Mody Maor has not wanted to do during the Championship Series is reflect on what an incredible year it has been for his club.

After two seasons almost entirely on the road due to border closures, through which they enjoyed just 17 wins from 64 games, their NBL23 story is quite remarkable.

Coach Maor set the challenge of reconnecting the club with their nation and their fanbase through the a hardnosed style, and 19 regular season wins and four finals triumphs later, they have more than achieved that, as the record crowd at Spark Arena on Sunday showed.

“It was one of our biggest goals to put a team on the floor that fans in New Zealand feel represents them the right way, resonates with them the way we do things is something they feel connected,” Maor said.

“I’m humbled and grateful and we’re going to keep doing everything we can to keep representing them the right way.”

Nothing they’ve done this season has been easy, they play a style that is difficult for themselves as well as their opponents because it demands so much on every possession.

It was something Maor identified way back in Round 3 after their hard-fought road win against South East Melbourne.

“What I see for sure is a bunch of people that compete the whole time, there are never possessions that we take off,” he said.

Fast forward five months, and it was the same story as they grinded the Kings down in Game 4 to keep their fairytale season alive.

“We competed, every second we were on the floor,” Maor said post-game.

“Sydney is an incredible team and if you lose focus for just a little bit they got on a run. We stayed with it, we kept competing, even when shots didn’t fall or even when the whistle didn’t go, even when we made mistakes we kept competing.

“This has been the thing we've been the proudest of all year, that these guys step on the floor and give it all they’ve got every time, that’s all I ask for.”

Kings coach Chase Buford and his crew will know they need solutions for moments when New Zealand's intensity bogs them down to avoid another scoring drought like in Sunday’s first half.

When his team moves the ball, they open up the floor, allow for more cutting as the defence shifts and make it more difficult for the Breakers to apply physicality, as Buford acknowledged on Sunday.

“When we had some freedom of movement to play our guys were able to get into the paint, we shared it some, we had 13 assists in the second half,” he said.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Strong and-one by Walton Jr!<br><br>Catch all the action LIVE on ESPN via Kayo Freebies <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeTheKings?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeTheKings</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBLFinals?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBLFinals</a> <a href="https://t.co/GAQqx8IhZr">pic.twitter.com/GAQqx8IhZr</a></p>— Sydney Kings (@SydneyKings) <a href="https://twitter.com/SydneyKings/status/1634811275287973890?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 12, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

In Game 3 they had 19 dimes from half-court sets, and 15 of those were possessions with two passes or more. They had just five assists from 35 one-pass, half-court possessions.

With Cooks unable to play his usual role, can Buford utilise him better as an off-ball screener and passer to open up teammates, as New Zealand did so well with Mika Vukona and Dillon Boucher during their dynasty?

Kings fans would love to see their MVP Xavier Cooks give a vintage display before heading to the USA, but his body is unlikely to allow that, and Chase Buford is just happy with whatever he can get from his leader.

“Not close,” Buford responded when asked how close Cooks was to 100 per cent fitness.

“He’s extremely brave, he’s unselfish, he’s a great teammate, he’s a warrior, he’s a competition, there aren't enough superlatives to describe what he’s doing out there right now.”

It will take a brave performance from New Zealand to pinch Game 5 on the road – the last team to win a deciding grand final game away from home was Melbourne in 2008 over the Kings – but McDowell-White thinks they found the right formula on Sunday.

“We didn’t want to be too desperate where we play out of control, just trying to find the balance in the middle there to execute, because with this team it’s all about getting the shots that we want, if we do that we’re usually fine,” he said.

It’s a message coach Maor echoed, knowing that defending Sydney’s high-octane offence – and keeping their huge crowd quiet – starts at the other end.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Cam bringing the house down early!! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNBREAKABLE?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNBREAKABLE</a> <a href="https://t.co/CYnJ2oMLzL">pic.twitter.com/CYnJ2oMLzL</a></p>— Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1634788512657715200?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 12, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“To stop the Sydney Kings you need to do a lot of things well,” Maor said.

“We rebounded well, our offence executed, we got to the shots we wanted which allowed us to get back in transition, we pressed the ball, we made them play away from the three-point line, we kept them away from the paint.”

Jarell Brantley was a huge part of that plan at both ends, and after an up-and-down offensive series, coach Maor desperately needs his import at his best on Wednesday.

“When Jarell Brantley’s aggressive we’re good,” he said.

“Jarell was aggressive in his spots, played exactly the way I want him to play, we need his interior presence, we need him to be on the attack, he’s been that kind of guy for us all year.”

The Kings have been the best team all year, and Buford believes their second-half effort to reduce a 15-point deficit to a bucket on two occasions gives them momentum heading into a well-deserved deciding game at the Q.

“Proud of my guys ... they gave us the fightback in the second half and gave us a chance to win, but credit to New Zealand they made some big shots down the stretch to keep us at arm’s length,” he said.

“The guys earned the right to host Game 5 at home by their play all year, so excited about that.”