Preview: South East Melbourne v Perth (Play-in Qualifier)

When: 6.30pm (AEDT), Thursday 9 February, 2023
Where: John Cain Arena, Melbourne
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ
LIVE STATS AND BOX SCORE

Who won last time?

South East Melbourne 112 (Williams 27, Broekhoff 26, Creek 20) d Perth 91 (Cotton 25, C Webster 21, Travers 13) – Round 16 at State Basketball Centre, Melbourne

The Wildcats backed up from a Friday meeting with Sydney to face the Phoenix 40 hours later and 2700km away - and it didn’t end well. With Ryan Broekhoff on fire outside and duo of Alan Williams and Mitch Creek unstoppable inside, it was only some red-hot shooting that kept the Wildcats close at half-time. But the longer this high-speed game went the more Perth’s stars fatigued, and their hosts finished the contest on a dominant 47-27 run.

What happened last game?

South East Melbourne’s final game of the regular season was 11 days ago in Sydney where they went toe-to-toe with the Kings in another shoot-out, and led by a point with a minute to play. The Phoenix attacked with poise and Mitch Creek proved unstoppable, but so did Xavier Cooks and the Kings who prevailed with 111 points.

Perth’s vaunted offence spluttered critically last Friday against Cairns to put them on the playoff precipice, while Cotton misfired badly on Sunday against the Kings in arguably his worst NBL performance. But Webster, Brady Manek and Luke Travers stood tall and the Wildcats made the Finals for the 36th time in 37 years.

What’s working?

Playing defence – Perth got to the post-season by locking down and holding Cairns and Sydney to a combined 43 per cent in Round 18 and allowed just 14/63 from the arc (22%) and forcing the Kings into 17 turnovers. After giving up 99.5ppg in their previous eight outings, holding the NBL’s two fastest-paced teams to 84 with finals on the line was an outstanding effort. Can they repeat the dose on the Phoenix, who’ve averaged 99.7ppg in this season series?

Interior design – While Perth’s final-round defence was improved they still gave up 58 per cent shooting inside, and against South East Melbourne in Round 16 they leaked 62 points in the paint at 70 per cent to be -28 in the key. Williams dominated TaShawn Thomas with 27 points on 13/18 shooting and six assists, while Creek went 7/12 inside en route to 20 points and six dimes.

These are tricky match-ups for the Wildcats. Neither Manek nor Jesse Wagstaff have the athletic traits to guard Creek nor the size to battle Williams. Thomas is needed inside to battle 'Big Sauce', even if he was manhandled last time. Will we see small-ball line-ups with Travers guarding Mitch at the four-spot? And how does that impact the glass?

What needs stopping?

Board maulings – A big reason for South East’s blistering inside clip in that game was their rebounding dominance. They grabbed 19 offensive boards to Perth’s 18 at the defensive end. Williams hauled in seven offensive rebounds himself, converting those into 10 points as the Phoenix won second chance points 27-11, shooting 71 per cent on those extra looks.

In Perth’s past three losses they’ve grabbed 62 per cent of available defensive boards and 21 per cent at the offensive end, compared with 72 per cent defensively and an impressive 34 per cent of offensive boards in their past three wins. The 'Cats have only managed 63 per cent of defensive rebounds in the season series with South East Melbourne and 24 per cent of offensive boards.

Road recession – While John Rillie’s men have won six of their past seven home dates, they are 1-5 on the road since Christmas while leaking 102.2ppg, and their only win in that stretch came against Illawarra on New Year’s Eve. Add that to the fact South East Melbourne is the NBL’s best home team with an 11-3 record – including seven-straight home wins at John Cain Arena with an average score of 97ppg – and the 'Cats have their work cut out to progress.

Who’s missing key men?

Both teams are expected to be at full strength.

Who’s matching up?

Trey Kell III & Ryan Broekhoff v Bryce Cotton – The MVP runner-up produced 29.5ppg on 11/23 from the arc in his first two NBL23 games against the Phoenix. Kell and Broekhoff were disciplined in Round 16 by denying and chasing over ball-screens, and limited Cotton to 7/21 from the field, and one of them must be on the floor at all times.

How much is left in Cotton’s tank? He’s 2/19 from deep the past three games while playing 118:04 of a possible 120 minutes. If Perth’s superstar is defending Broekhoff he must be run off a myriad of screens, while if he goes to Kell the bull-strong swingman needs touches in the post from where he can score and find teammates.

Mitch Creek v Brady Manek – The Wildcats’ big man burned the Phoenix for 21 points on 5/7 from deep and 8/12 overall in their second meeting, but Creek and his guards had greater awareness to switch, close space and allow just six shot attempts in Round 16. Manek is 26/52 from outside the past seven games, so he must again be a priority.

Creek has delivered 26ppg, 8rpg and 5apg in his past two meetings with Perth, shooting 53 per cent and getting to the foul line 16 times. The Phoenix are +20 with him on the floor and -6 with their skipper resting, and with no Wildcat able to guard him, there must be a wall built every time he touches the ball, tempting him to shoot threes over a hand.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Some <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ManekMadness?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ManekMadness</a> for your Sunday evening. ?<br><br>21 points, 4 x 3PM and 9 rebounds in today’s win over the Kings! <a href="https://t.co/dPZLQspPwC">pic.twitter.com/dPZLQspPwC</a></p>&mdash; Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1622184665976279041?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 5, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

For the South East Melbourne Phoenix, there is no better news than Ryan Broekhoff being available for their club’s second NBL Finals appearance in their four-year history.

“It's really important,” coach Simon Mitchell said.

“Over the last couple of years since he’s joined us, I think he’s been a bit of a barometer of success for us and it’s lovely to have him back.

“He had a great game against Perth last time up until the point of his injury, and he certainly balances our line-up.”

He piled on 26 points in 24 minutes on the Cats in Round 16, draining 6/10 from the land of plenty to set the State Basketball Centre alight and will likely be shadowed by Luke Travers after his electric 22-point, 11-rebound, six-assist performance against Sydney.

Broekhoff also had four o-boards in Round 16 and helped lead the defensive effort that slowed Bryce Cotton to a wayward shooting night, with the master scoring 11 points at 31 per cent in the 23:49 Rowdy shared the floor with him, compared to 14 points in the other 13:25.

“When (Broekhoff) is shooting the ball well everyone raves but it’s the same guy out there whether the ball goes in or not. You’ve got to guard him, you’ve got to be out on him and he opens up lanes and space for everybody else,” coach Mitchell said.

“But it’s the other stuff he brings – it’s the leadership, it’s the rebounding, it’s the defence, it’s the team defence, his communication out on the floor, he knows the scout inside and out every time he comes into the game.

“He’s just the perfect teammate and that’s what we miss when he’s not out there.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Six three’s in a half for Broekhoff ?<br><br>Watch live and free on 10 Peach and 10 play | Live on ESPN2 via Kayo Sports + Foxtel ? <a href="https://t.co/pp4MZRJgQN">pic.twitter.com/pp4MZRJgQN</a></p>&mdash; NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1617008305335054341?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 22, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

How long will he be out there for coming off the groin injury he suffered against Perth?

“It’s been challenging but feeling comfortable, feeling confident in it and we’ll see what happens tomorrow,” Broekhoff said.

“When it comes to a game like this we’ll probably set some minutes and see how the game goes. If I need to play a little bit more I’ll play a little bit more, but we’ll be smart about it at the same time.”

He knows his smarts will be needed to locate Cotton and Corey Webster in transition, shadow them over screens and make intelligent reads on when to switch and when to double.

“Obviously Cotton’s the head of the snake, trying to limit him the best we can and force him into tough shots and contested shots to try and bring his percentages down,” Broekhoff said.

“We know it’s going to be a dogfight, it’s a challenge for us to limit their scoring and we feel confident that we can go up the other end and score, use our post players to advantage.”

Perth know that’s where the Phoenix advantage lies, and they could do little to stop it last time.

“We just weren’t on the money today, Big Sauce was cooking us everywhere,” coach John Rillie said post-game.

“We just had no presence defensively. I thought Travers came in and gave us some great presence with him flying around and creating some steals and easy opportunities.

“TaShawn’s been playing phenomenal, tonight he was a little slow, you can truly see the impact he has on our team when he’s playing at an elite level.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Too big, too strong, too good! ??<br><br>? Tune in on <a href="https://twitter.com/10PeachAu?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@10PeachAu</a> ?? <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@KayoSports</a> | ESPN2 <a href="https://t.co/7uHZJhtUwO">pic.twitter.com/7uHZJhtUwO</a></p>&mdash; South East Melbourne Phoenix (@SEMelbPhoenix) <a href="https://twitter.com/SEMelbPhoenix/status/1617014011954098176?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 22, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

It wasn’t just Williams racking it up though, South East Melbourne’s starting five combined for 97 points at 57 per cent and 15 offensive rebounds as the Wildcats broke down time and again defensively and on the glass.

“About the defence, the scouting report on Browne is he loves to reject (the screen), he gets to reject,” Rillie said in frustration afterwards.

“Broekhoff, be attached, and we’re not attached to him. Then all of a sudden those things you let slip impact everything else and it’s a snowball effect, we’re out of position for rebounding.”

Perth were a different defensive beast against the Kings last Sunday though, with Thomas leading the way, and Rillie is hopeful that can translate to Thursday’s elimination final.

“We did a great job, we did what we had to do tonight. We've coughed up some opportunities but they rose to the occasion tonight and that’s a sign of something, I don’t know what, we’ll find out Thursday night,” Rillie said.

“The way (Thomas) started the game, he had a good presence about himself defensively, and that’s when I can tell TaShawn is ready to go.”

South East Melbourne will be ready to go, playing finals basketball in front of their Heartland faithful at long last.

“It’s just the excitement of being able to play in front of our own fans, we didn’t get that opportunity two years ago when we were isolated up in Sydney,” coach Mitchell said.

“They’ve been very loyal to us, they’ve grown in number, they're very loud, they very supportive and it’s just exciting we’re able to present them with a home game in the playoffs.”