Preview: Perth v New Zealand (Round 15)

When: 9.30pm (AEDT), Tuesday 10 January, 2023
Where: RAC Arena, Perth
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ
LIVE SCORES & STATS

Who won last time?

New Zealand 97 (Brown 23, Le’afa 18, Rupert 14) d Perth 94 (Cotton 32, Manek 20, Webster 19) – Round 14 at TSB Stadium, New Plymouth

Perth started fast as TaShawn Thomas dominated the interior with poise and precision, but Barry Brown Jr kept the Breakers close as he simply drove by an array of 'Cats defenders. The back and forth continued until late in the third term when Brown and Rayan Rupert gave New Zealand a double-figure edge. Bryce Cotton and Corey Webster got hot late though, Perth charging to the final buzzer, where a wayward Brady Manek triple would have forced overtime.

What happened last game?

The script was eerily similar for the Breakers in Adelaide, leading for much of the game but having to weather a late storm, ultimately riding their luck as Ian Clark missed a wide-open game-winner to leave New Zealand within 1.5 games of Sydney. Perth weren’t anywhere near the Kings on Saturday, giving up a 21-point lead by early in the second stanza and losing by that margin, as their inability to defend the interior continued to haunt them. The 'Cats are now seventh, with seven of their final eight games against top six teams.

What’s working?

Hand pressure – New Zealand push the rule governing illegal use of the arms to impressive lengths, applying hand checks and arm bars which allow them to slow penetrators and ride them physically. That was a key part of forcing 41 turnovers in two Round 14 wins, and led to Adelaide coach CJ Bruton asking officials on almost every possession to enforce that rule. Can the Breakers be that physical with 10,000-plus passionate Perth fans riding the action?

Interior schemes – Perth’s ball-screen and post-up schemes were arguably their best all season in NZ, crowding the roller and doubling the post man from the baseline, then helping and recovering off the ball with impressive sync. Of New Zealand’s 23 possessions where they attacked through interior catches, their return was just 18 points at 43 per cent and six turnovers. What adjustments will both teams make for Tuesday’s rematch?

What needs stopping?

Straight-line drives – In contrast, the Wildcats defence of penetration bordered on embarrassing. Of the Breakers 32 possessions where they attacked off straight-line drives, they scored 50 points at 79 per cent and coughed it up just twice. Barry Brown, Rayan Rupert and Izayah Le’afa shot a combined 17/22 in the paint. John Rillie’s men need to apply the same principles of shrinking the floor proactively that were so successful against the roll-man, but first they must simply get down in defensive stance and slide their feet.

Cotton Webs – New Zealand rank equal second in defensive rating but Perth have dissected them for 93ppg at a sizzling 51 per cent. A big part of that is two guards who are very difficult to man-handle because of their elite change of direction, Cotton and Corey Webster averaging a combined 47ppg and 9apg against NZ, shooting 8/11 from long range last Wednesday while Cotton is 17/18 from the foul line in the season series. Will the Breakers defence be more proactive to trap and get the ball into other Wildcats’ hands?

Who’s missing key men?

The Breakers are expected to be at full strength for Tuesday’s game, while Luke Travers will be a game-time decision for Perth as he returns from illness.

Who’s matching up?

TaShawn Thomas v Jarell Brantley – Thomas was outstanding at both ends in the Round 14 matchup, Perth +19 with their star big man on the floor and -22 in the other 13:22 as Jesse Wagstaff in particular was cruelly targeted. The question is can Perth get him more than seven shots via screening action for Cotton and Webster, and will New Zealand adjust their ball-screen defence to avoid Brantley switching and leaving his guards on Thomas Island?

Luke Travers v Rayan Rupert – The Wildcats are 6-3 when Travers dishes four or more dimes, compared to 4-7 over the rest of the season, and they sorely missed LT’s best in two Round 14 losses. Rupert missed 58 days but it didn’t seem to matter, racking up 22 points in 32 minutes across two big Breakers wins. He had the better of Travers last Wednesday, and if LT plays he’ll want to stay in front of Brown and Rupert a little better this time around.

Tai Webster v Will McDowell-White – The fuel gauge hit empty pretty quickly, but T-Web looked sharp early on his NBL return, knocking in nine points on 4/6 shooting in the opening 13 minutes, and he will now be looking to make a statement against his former team. WMW was also impressive on return, contributing 10 points, seven dimes and five boards in 22 minutes, and he’ll be licking his lips at Perth’s sub-standard interior defence.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Tai throws it up, Tae throws it down. ?<br><br>? Watch live on ESPN via Kayo &amp; Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/r18Kv11mgk">pic.twitter.com/r18Kv11mgk</a></p>&mdash; Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1611672290730868736?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 7, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

The Perth Wildcats walked into Round 14 with the opportunity to make a serious statement against the NBL’s top two teams and leapfrog into fourth place.

They walked away with their tails between their legs, a 10-10 record and work to do to get back into the top six.

While they were completely outclassed early by the rampaging Kings and could never undo that damage, the 'Cats felt they let a golden opportunity slip in New Plymouth.

“New Zealand are a playoff team, they're well-prepared, their coaches get them ready, but we got off to a great start, we certainly scored enough points to win the game,” coach John Rillie said.

“We just had a loose second quarter that allowed them to get a lot of momentum and go into half-time with some hope.”

Perth won the first and last quarters 51-40 but switched off in between, the Breakers’ intensity off-setting the Wildcats’ high-level execution.

“I thought New Zealand did a great job of beating us to the 50-50 balls, the one-percenter type of plays, and when play a close game like that those things really show up,” Rillie said.

It wasn’t all just effort though, the Breakers recognising Perth’s inability to defend them one-one-one.

Coach Mody Maor pulled his big men out as screeners or weakside shooters, leaving Wildcat guards defending the split line and the rim effectively unguarded as NZ racked up 60 points in the paint.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Barry stepped up to the plate last night to help us back into that winning column ?<br><br>23pts <br>6reb<br>6ast <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNBREAKABLE?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNBREAKABLE</a> <a href="https://t.co/MOcfvEDhMp">pic.twitter.com/MOcfvEDhMp</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1610767129300852737?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 4, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“We create advantages, we want to draw two defenders somewhere, move the ball and find the open man. Sometimes that open man is in the paint, sometimes that open man is in the corner,” Maor said.

“We are geared towards reading the cover, drawing the advantage and creating it and taking advantage of it. Today some of it was in the paint which was great.”

Perth simply weren’t switched on to this, their bigs giving too much respect to Jarell Brantley, Rob Loe and Tom Vodanovich on the perimeter, rather than proactively crowding driving lanes and trusting their teammates’ rotations.

The Wildcats’ inconsistent mental application also showed up through sloppy turnovers as the relentless Breakers went +7 in the possession game in a one-possession result.

“That was us just being sloppy at times, and when it gets to the end of the season we can’t have that many turnovers,” Corey Webster said.

“You can see how potent we are at the offensive end without those turnovers, we need to clean that up.”

How potent the Wildcats’ offensive stars are made the victory all-the-sweeter for NZ coach Mody Maor, especially after living through a 32-point Bryce Cotton masterpiece.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">That sweet BC step-back. ??<br><br>? Watch live on ESPN via Kayo &amp; Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/gdXN8veiuJ">pic.twitter.com/gdXN8veiuJ</a></p>&mdash; Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1610550691445235712?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 4, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“A phenomenal display of shot-making from Perth, I feel we defended it well and just played against great players who made a lot of tough shots,” he said.

“I think there was a true show of character when things didn’t go our way and we were 10 down in the first quarter.

“We gave up some open shots in transition, there were some breakdowns that are not characteristic to us, things that have crept into our habits that we really want to weed out and the team really, really responded.

“The guys stepped up and I don’t feel like Perth got anything easy after this, everything they needed to work for, everything was tough.

“They're a great team, they're leading players had a great game and we hung with it consistently.”

Perth has six of its final eight games at home, but only one against a team outside the top six, meaning the Wildcats have to beat quality teams like New Zealand to taste post-season action for the 36^th time in 37 seasons.

“We’ve played the best two teams the last two games, it just reflects we’re not quite on their level,” Rillie said.

“We have patches where we’re very good against the elite teams, but they’re just a little more consistent over the 40 minutes right now.”