Preview: Perth v Illawarra (Round 17)

When: 9.30pm (AEDT), Friday 27 January 2023
Where: RAC Arena, Perth
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ
LIVE STATS AND BOX SCORE

Who won last time?

Perth 107 (Webster 25, Cotton 24, Manek 23) d Illawarra 97 (Harvey 28, Froling 19, Deng 15) – Round 13 at WIN Entertainment Centre, Wollongong

The Wildcats and Hawks took a big Wollongong crowd on a New Year’s Eve roller-coaster ride, with the hosts racing to an 18-11 lead before Perth unleashed a 50-26 burst into half-time. Tyler Harvey wasn’t going to let 2022 end with a whimper and carried the Hawks back to level-pegging early in the fourth, only for Corey Webster and Brady Manek to score 15 points in less than four minutes to seal the deal for the travelling Wildcats.

What happened last game?

Perth ran out of fourth-quarter juice against South East Melbourne, their high-speed win over Sydney and thin rotations took their toll, and the loss leaves them inside the top six only by percentage. The Hawks finally cracked the dam wall in New Zealand with a stirring win, but then the floodgates opened in the other direction against Brisbane, with the intensity that had become their recent trademark lacking after tasting victory two nights earlier.

What’s working?

Defending – In three straight games across Round 15 and 16 Illawarra held the top three teams – Sydney, Cairns and New Zealand – to 83ppg at just 42 per cent and gave up just 38 points in the paint. Fast forward to Brisbane and they were burned for 103 points at 54 per cent, including 54 inside the key at 66 per cent. Can the Hawks recapture the desperation, possession after possession, they displayed while trying to capture that elusive win?

Big five scoring – When you’ve given up 100.3ppg in your past eight games you must be able to score. Perth can do that, but they’re hugely dependent on TaShawn Thomas, Brady Manek, Luke Travers, Corey Webster and Bryce Cotton. That quintet combined for 96 points and 27 assists in the win over Sydney, but when they managed ‘only’ 69 points and 13 dimes two days later Perth simply couldn’t keep up with the Phoenix. Last time against the Hawks their big five scored a remarkable 100 points while the bench added just seven.

What needs stopping?

Possession capitulation – One of the reasons the big five couldn’t fire was South East Melbourne went +14 in the possession game. They pulled in 19 offensive rebounds to the Wildcats' 18 defensive boards. It was an listless performance from Perth, who gave up 16 offensive rebounds to Illawarra on New Year’s Eve and were smashed 19-8 on second chance points. In the impressive win over Sydney, the Wildcats won the rebounding percentages 54-46 and had their best game of NBL23.

Fouling Bryce – John Rillie’s men are 2-0 and +16 against Illawarra, having been +25 on scores from the free-throw line. Cotton went to the stripe an unfathomable 16 times in the Round 13 clash, with 13 of them coming from fouls on two-point shots where he makes a moderate 44 per cent. Wani Swaka Lo Buluk and comapny need to curb their enthusiasm and make the MVP candidate shoot twos over a hand rather than gifting him freebies.

Who’s missing key men?

Mangok Mathiang has been released by the Hawks to pursue a overseas opportunity, while Tai Webster will suit up for Perth but is not expected to play with a tight hamstring.

Who’s matching up?

TaShawn Thomas v Sam Froling – After a statement 10-game stretch where he averaged 18.8ppg and 8.4rpg, Froling has hit a mini-slump with averages 8.5 and 5.3 in his past four games. That’s partly from opponents making him a priority on defence and partly from the emergence of Mangok Mathiang, but with his partner-in-crime now departed Froling needs to step back up. Thomas is sure to be an offensive priority for Perth on Friday, given they found him just four shots against South East Melbourne after their import big had averaged 18ppg at 69 per cent in his previous 10 games.

Luke Travers v Tyler Harvey – How do you solve a problem like Tyler Harvey? Not many teams have lately, with the Hawks superstar scoring 21 or more n this past eight games with an average of 23.6ppg on a staggering 4.6 made triples at 42 per cent. He hammered Perth with 28 points on 6/14 from range on New Year’s Eve, their lack of a backcourt stopper with Mitch Norton ailed a big issue. Will Travers be asked to use his length to run Harvey off the arc? And can the Cleveland Cavaliers draftee continue his run of 2.0 treys at 59 per cent the past eight games?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">LT&#39;s on target. ?<br><br>? Watch live on ESPN2 via Kayo &amp; Foxtel, or live &amp; free on 10 Peach <a href="https://t.co/iLqxOeUCsq">pic.twitter.com/iLqxOeUCsq</a></p>&mdash; Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1617003161721659392?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 22, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

The Perth Wildcats have watched their opponents raise their proverbial bats three times in the past five games, and on average have conceded more than a century over the past eight games.

It’s not a championship winning record, but against South East Melbourne the ‘how’ was more frustrating for coach John Rillie than the ‘how many’.

“About the defence, the scouting report on Browne is he loves to reject (the screen), he gets to reject,” Rillie said post-game.

“Broekhoff, be attached, and we’re not attached to him. Then all of a sudden those things you let slip impact everything else and it’s a snowball effect, we’re out of position for rebounding.

“When we’re locked in and communicating – we had some miscommunications on some switches, they shoot wide-open threes – those are the type of things we talk about at practice.”

The Wildcats gave up a lay-up on the first possession and then three offensive rebounds on the second, including off a missed free throw.

“With our quick turnaround two things I wanted to emphasise was communication and rebounding,” Rillie said.

“So for us to have a possession like they were playing volleyball just showed me where our mind was at at the start of the game.”

It left six-time champion and captain Jesse Wagstaff downcast as his team looks to find the defensive and rebounding consistency needed to contend for another title, rather than doing it in patches.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">LT steals, Brady seals. ?<br><br>? Watch live on ESPN via Kayo &amp; Foxtel, or live &amp; free on 10 Peach. <a href="https://t.co/aBgCBF0k2D">pic.twitter.com/aBgCBF0k2D</a></p>&mdash; Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1616999467613589507?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 22, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“They had 49 rebounds and we had 25, that’s pretty much double. That’s a good indication of where we were at. Credit to them, they fully deserved it, they wanted it more,” he said.

“It wasn’t great, 112 points. We’re going to have nights where we don’t shoot well or we turn the ball over, but we've still got to knuckle down and keep them in front and rebound and pursue the ball and we didn’t do that.”

If Perth want to make the post-season for the 36th time in 37 years, they simply must defeat the Hawks at The Jungle on Friday night.

With Tasmania, Cairns and the Kings to come and potentially three wins still needed to slot into the top six, things are getting tight.

What they're unlikely to get from Illawarra is an easy night, with Tyler Harvey and Co determined to bounce back after a poor showing against Brisbane.

“What we've been through the last three or four months has been very challenging for everybody, not just the players, the coaches and the staff, but coach has kept us focused on the present moment and trying to build something special here,” Harvey said.

“We have guys that are playing well, and if we can end this stretch strong and keep building up for next year, we want the culture here to be we don’t give in regardless of how our record is, if we’re up or if we’re down, we want to be tough dudes on the court.

“Tonight we let that slide, but that’s just one out of the last eight we let go.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Some sweet ball movement, topped off by a Wani triple ?‍??<br><br>? ESPN via Kayo Sports and Foxtel<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HawkNation?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#HawkNation</a> <a href="https://t.co/9Y17iPTtla">pic.twitter.com/9Y17iPTtla</a></p>&mdash; Illawarra Hawks Basketball (@illawarrahawks) <a href="https://twitter.com/illawarrahawks/status/1615963360960610305?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 19, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The loss of Mangok Mathiang takes away a potential advantage inside against the undersized 'Cats, but Harvey feels the key is their shooters and cutters capitalising on the attention defences are invariably focusing on himself and Sam Froling.

“I think the approach with me all year has been the same thing, they double or they hard hedge, we just didn’t make plays tonight, that’s just the name of the game,” he said.

“We have guys that can space and make shots but tonight we just didn’t have it. Of course teams game plan for me, but we have a lot of guys that can do things.”

The start shooting guard, who is closing in on All-NBL honours with his stunning form, is not fazed by facing a desperate Wildcats team on Friday night.

“All of these teams we’re playing are fighting for playoff spots, so we know it’s not going to be a very easy challenge but we’re in for it,” he said.

“We've been through so much this year, we've been through every kind of up and down we can possibly think of, we've just got to make sure we’re in the right mindset for this last stretch.”