Preview: New Zealand v Brisbane (Round 8)

When: 2pm (AEDT), Sunday 27 November, 2022
Where: Spark Arena, Auckland
Broadcast: 10 Peach; 10 Play; ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ
Live scores & stats

Who won last time?

Brisbane 101 (Franks 31, Patterson 17, Deng 16) d New Zealand 100 (Wetzell 23, Abercrombie 21, Randle 12) – Round 17, NBL22 at Cairns Convention Centre

You can’t sum up New Zealand’s NBL22 season better than this game. The Breakers led by 15 in the second quarter, 14 in the third and by four with 2:46 to play before it went to overtime. Then, thanks to three-straight Tom Abercrombie triples, they jumped seven ahead with 0:23 left in the extra period. Robert Franks and Tanner Krebs then drained threes, before Will McDowell-White’s infamous pass was intercepted by Deng Deng, who fed Anthony Drmic for the game-stealing, heart-breaking trifecta on the buzzer.

What happened last game?

Brisbane have been anything but last-minute masters this season, and that continued last round against Cairns, pulling within a point with 3:45 remaining on a furious DJ Mitchell-inspired run, before immediately conceding an 8-2 burst to go to 1-4 in games decided by 10 or less. In contrast, the Breakers were just one ahead with five minutes to play in Cairns before holding the Snakes scoreless for three minutes and sealing the deal with a 10-0 run.

What’s working?

No more meltdowns – New Zealand are 5-2 in single-figure games, and are 3-1 in their past four with an average margin of 7.3 points. In the final eight minutes of those four games they were +27, winning 22.5 to 15.8 on average. While the Breakers’ D gets the headlines, that late scoring rate equates to a remarkable 112.5 points per 40 minutes, with Barry Brown Jr scoring 22 points and Dererk Pardon and Izayah Le’afa 19 apiece in those 32 minutes.

Tyler Johnson – TJ stood tall against Cairns last week, producing 13 points and three assists in the final 14 minutes to give his team a chance, the problem being he only took seven shots and dished one dime in the opening 26. Johnson’s past three games have produced 41 points on 30 shoots, connecting at 61 per cent from two-point range to off-set an uncharacteristic 1/7 from deep, and Brisbane need more quantity of his quality.

What needs stopping?

Guard burp-ups – If there is an area of concern for Johnson it’s his 20 turnovers to 27 assists this season, and combined with Nathan Sobey and Jason Cadee the Brisbane backcourt averages 7.6 cough-ups compared to opposition guard’s 4.9. The Bullets have the highest turnover percentage in the NBL while forcing the fewest miscues, going -55 on cough-ups this season and turning the ball over more than their opponents in every single game.

Interior scores – Brisbane are +34 on points in the paint in wins, conceding just 26ppg, but -54 in losses, giving up 40.7ppg. Last week Cairns smashed them 42-28 inside, a repeat of which would be terminal against New Zealand. To stop that the Bullets must stop Jarrell Brantley and Derek Pardon, which will be tough with both Aron Baynes and Tyrell Harrison out injured. Will they continue to drop on defence? Or will the absence of key big men see the Bullets take a more aggressive approach to defending ball-screens?

Who’s matching up?

Barry Brown v ??? – Auckland might get renamed Brown Town the way Barry is going, scoring 68 points at 50 per cent from the floor and 10/17 from deep in his past three home dates. The only team to hold him below 20 is Tasmania, and the question for Mackinnon and Co is who has the length, athleticism and defensive prowess to do this job? Krebs is usually their defensive stopper, does he come off the bench to mirror Brown’s bursts? Does Johnson’s experience against NBA-level athletes put him in the mix? Or is this a Sobey gig?

Jarell Brantley v DJ Mitchell – DJ was on track last week with 21 points and eight boards, dropping 3/5 trifectas and almost single-handedly shooting them back into the game. Is his conscience-free shooting the tonic to exploit New Zealand’s aggressive ball-screen defence? And does he have the strength and speed to contain Brantley’s all-around game, which has delivered 37 points at 50 per cent, 17 boards and four dimes the past two games.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">We&#39;ll call this one the American Breaker combo ?? ?? <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNBREAKABLE?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNBREAKABLE</a> <a href="https://t.co/7fpGRXweGw">pic.twitter.com/7fpGRXweGw</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1596074201559216128?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 25, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

It goes without saying that Brisbane enter Sunday’s clash as a bit of an unknown, given interim coach Sam Mackinnon has only been in charge for three days.

However, the former Magic and Bullets superstar revealed to ESPN that he’s not intending to change too much during his short stint in charge.

“Just for the interim I can help bring the group together with that voice, I'm not looking to re-create the wheel or change everything,” he said.

“It’s a tough ask but it's the situation we're in and I think everyone in the group wants the best for this team. Immediate discussions were about refining the offence and getting everyone on the same page.”

That last comment gave a hint to what Mackinnon will be focusing on, and the reasoning behind Bullets’ ownership’s decision to make a change.

“It's wins and losses. It's JD's second year now and while the defence had improved, we were struggling offensively and developing a style we wanted to play,” Mackinnon said.

“We were ninth in the league in scoring and we've got some pretty talented players out there.

“Offensively we weren't executing, we lead the league in turnovers, there were a few things that just weren't going well and we had a solid group of games to find a way forward.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">TY THROWS IT DOWN!<br><br>Watch on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RIVERCITYSTRONG?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#RIVERCITYSTRONG</a> <a href="https://t.co/iD1scnTfTA">pic.twitter.com/iD1scnTfTA</a></p>&mdash; Brisbane Bullets (@BrisbaneBullets) <a href="https://twitter.com/BrisbaneBullets/status/1585561289648398337?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 27, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That may give hope to long-suffering Bullets’ fans, whose team is last in two-point makes and seventh in free-throw attempts despite having the biggest, baddest man in the land.

For New Zealand boss Mody Maor, however, it brings a sense of trepidation.

“We get in (to Auckland) and go and play a wounded animal,” he said from Cairns.

“For me as a coach who finds comfort in preparation to play a team who just changed their coaching staff and you don’t know what you are going to play against is nerve-racking.

“I’m happy I have the kind of guys I have in the locker-room who understand what kind of challenge this brings, and with whatever happens with the travel, we’ll be ready to play.”

Yet perhaps the biggest challenge first up for Mackinnon is adjusting the defence without his twin towers.

Brisbane sit second in defensive rating and defensive rebounding percentage, while only Sydney and New Zealand force opponents into a lower field-goal percentage.

That’s on the back of their bigs staying at home and their guards crowding the arc, where the Bullets allow a league-low 30 per cent.

However, it’s not quite the same when DJ Mitchell and Harry Froling are prowling the paint, compared to Aron Baynes and Tyrell Harrison.

While it creates an opportunity for Gorjok Gak to regain his place in the rotation, it also gives Brisbane the chance to be more disruptive defensively.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">AIR SOBEY ??<br><br>Watch <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL23?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL23</a> live on ESPN via Kayo Sports and Foxtel ? <a href="https://t.co/UtfQwO93yQ">pic.twitter.com/UtfQwO93yQ</a></p>&mdash; The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1593916264174395392?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 19, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

They currently rank last in forcing turnovers, but that’s an area New Zealand struggled with as they fell behind the Taipans on Friday, with guards Barry Brown, Will McDowell-White and Izayah Le’afa coughing it up 12 times between them.

“We’re not a team that turns the ball over a lot. This is a credit to Cairns. They defend in a certain way, provoke turnovers,” coach Maor said.  

Whichever way Brisbane go about it they’ve got to disrupt Brown without opening the door for his lightning drives.

“Barry came here with the ability to score, it’s what he does,” Maor said.

“We see growth in other spaces. We see him defending target players, getting scouts right, getting rebounds today and passing versus pressure. There’s a lot of growth in this kid and a lot of room to get even better.”

When he is targeted, Brown is loving having Dererk Pardon as his go-to man, and DP will be licking his lips at the Bullets’ undermanned interior.

“Dererk is catching lobs, giving us second chances, offensive rebounding, kicking it out and then just being a bully in the post,” Brown said.

While it’s a tough ask racing back from the Far North for their second game in less the 48 hours, and fourth in nine days, the Breakers continue to back the fitness and connection that has allowed them play harder than any other team in NBL23 thus far.

“It’s day-in, day-out stuff and just carries over to the game. We know what each player can do, what our strengths are and we have each other’s backs,” Brown said.