Preview: Illawarra v Tasmania (Round 18)

When: 5.30pm (AEDT), Saturday 4 February, 2023
Where: WIN Entertainment Centre, Wollongong
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ
LIVE SCORES AND STATS

Who won last time?

Tasmania 92 (Kelly 18, McVeigh 15, Weeks 14) d Illawarra 89 (Harvey 22, Froling 21, Deng 16, Grida 16) – Round 15 at WIN Entertainment Centre, Wollongong

Tyler Harvey and Sam Froling once again loaded the Hawks on their backs and took them to the brink of shocking the JackJumpers, with Dan Grida providing an outstanding third wheel. However, despite the home team drawing level in the second term, within one in the third period and back to four late in the contest, Tasmania had all the answers when needed,  and Jack McVeigh scored six points in the final two minutes to seal the deal.  

What happened last game?

The JackJumpers impressively closed the late gate on Perth last round, outscoring the 'Cats 22-6 in the final seven minutes to all-but lock in back-to-back playoff appearances in their first two years of existence. Milton Doyle was the hero this time with eight points and two dimes in the decisive burst.

Groundhog Day returned for the Hawks, down just one point with four minutes to play against New Zealand on Thursday before Tom Abercrombie and Barry Brown combined for 13 points to put the contest to rest. It was the seventh time in their past 10 games Illawarra have lost by 10 or less.

What’s working?

Sam Froling – How about 38 points at 58 per cent, 16 rebounds, seven assists, six o-boards and a pair of blocks. That’s Froling’s 66 minutes in two games while playing with his brother in hospital. The Next Generation Award favourite has stood tall for Illawarra for most of the season, and been outstanding since Peyton Siva arrived and rejuvenated the team’s offence. He’s averaged 20.0ppg, 8.0rpg and 4.5apg against Tasmania, can he produce one more time?

Rashard Kelly – When we say Rashard’s been working, he’s been working hard. The unassuming import, who starred in Europe’s Basketball Champions League last season, has delivered 13.0ppg at 51 per cent, 5.5rpg, 2.4 o-boards and 1.5 steals in 21 minutes per night his past eight games. His energy has been a huge part of Tasmania’s possession game success, so who is going to fill the breach with him sidelined by illness?  

What needs stopping?

Jack attacks – Kelly’s absence will move Jack McVeigh back into the starting line-up and it’s a good match-up, given the Hawks don’t have a powerful four-man to exploit him. In fact, while’s he’s known as McTrey for his outside exploits, it’s Jack who’s taken Illawarra’s frontcourt to task, scoring 24 of his 31 points in the season series from ‘ones and twos’, with a blistering 9/13 clip at the rim. Can Deng Deng defend and keep McVeigh out of the paint?

Sam & Tyler – New Zealand had no answers for the Harvey-Froling combination in the first half on Thursday, nor the short roll in general, and neither did the JackJumpers in Round 15. From 16 possessions where the Hawks had Harvey-Froling interactions – from ball-screens, dribble hand-offs or kick-outs – they scored 26 points on 10/15 shooting. The challenge is to play through Tassie’s disruptive defence and get their stars in tandem more often.

Who’s missing key men?

Tasmania will be without Rashard Kelly (illness), while Illawarra will again play with a one-import line-up.

Who’s matching up?

Tyler Harvey v Matt Kenyon & Sam McDaniel – With the JackJumpers’ two-headed defensive monster sidelined in Round 15 Harvey went off early, draining 4/6 from outside the arc and 1/1 with his toe on it in the first half. Both McDaniel and Kenyon are fighting for playoff minutes, and if they can subdue Harvey– who’s delivered 234 points in his past 10 games with no score below 21 – it will make a statement about their value to the team.

Wani Swaka Lo Buluk v Milton Doyle – A big reason the Hawks got so close to Tassie last time was because they held Doyle to 10 points on 3/10 shooting and a team-worst -12 in 29 minutes. Swaka Lo Buluk and compnay took the ball out of Doyle's hands, took away his midrange game, and forced him into 1/3 shooting at the rim and 2/7 outside the arc. In Tasmania’s past seven losses Doyle has averaged 14.1ppg at 45 per cent from two, compared to 18.2ppg at 63 per cent in wins.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Milton Doyle is making some ???-???? shots tonight ?<br><br>He&#39;s the game-leader with 7?? points now!<br><br>Watch <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL23?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL23</a> live on ESPN via Kayo Sports + Foxtel ? <a href="https://t.co/z3yFDl0uxj">pic.twitter.com/z3yFDl0uxj</a></p>&mdash; NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1616363932280827906?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 20, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Other results mean it’s now in the JackJumpers’ hands to secure fourth place on the NBL ladder for the second-straight season.

Win and they’re in, while a loss by a respectable margin will do the job too. Should they fall 88-70, then the Phoenix will move above them by a fraction of a percent.

You would think that equation would create a buzz from the Tasmanians as they head to Wollongong to play the last-placed Hawks, but coach Scott Roth will be preaching a message of caution.

After the cellar-dwellers almost pipped them three weeks ago, Roth was full of praise for counterpart Jacob Jackomas, and not really pumped about having to face his side again.

“He’s got them playing very hard and scrappy, they're all in and it’s a great credit to him with all the things they’ve gone through,” Roth said.

“In my opinion he’s having a successful year, because they're competing, they're not giving in to anybody, and they're scrapping and fighting.

“We've got to come back one more time and I'm not looking forward to it. That to me is winning. It may not be what the fans want to see but he is winning in a different way and building something.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Just beautiful basketball ? <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HawkNation?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#HawkNation</a> <a href="https://t.co/GSHaiLokr4">pic.twitter.com/GSHaiLokr4</a></p>&mdash; Illawarra Hawks Basketball (@illawarrahawks) <a href="https://twitter.com/illawarrahawks/status/1612737788818100225?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 10, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Illawarra matched the JackJumpers’ for effort that game, winning second chance points 18-12 and matching the Tasmanians for points from turnovers.

“We've been a very good rebounding team, we’re one of the best rebounding teams in the league, but this team survives the last few weeks on second shots and re-loads, Harvey getting another reload on a three, or Deng,” Roth said.

“They're big and athletic around there. It was a big priority for us to keep them off the glass as much as we could, I think they're averaging about 16 offensive rebounds the last three or four games and that fuels a lot of extra possessions and a load of re-loads.”

The Hawks also attack Tasmania’s pressure with the abandon you’d expect from a young team pumped full of confidence by their coach.

It’s an aggressive approach the JackJumpers have struggled to deal with all season.

“I think containment on the ball and guarding it slightly better, but more importantly for us is the discipline of we want teams to be sped up, but we don’t want to be just giving up lay-ups in the process of speeding these teams up,” Roth said.

“In the first seven or eight minutes they didn’t score in the half-court, they scored out of our press, which is good for us at times, but we have to have a happy medium of getting the ball levelled off.”

It was a problem that resurfaced for much of the game against Perth, with the JackJumpers unable to assert their defensive identity on the contest until late.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Not in WILL’s House! ? <br><br>Watch live on ESPN via kayo &amp; foxtel. Donate to <a href="https://twitter.com/shegynaetas?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@shegynaetas</a> at <a href="https://t.co/gAK97YhpKX">https://t.co/gAK97YhpKX</a> <a href="https://t.co/hSs5I7zTnM">pic.twitter.com/hSs5I7zTnM</a></p>&mdash; Tasmania JackJumpers ? (@JackJumpers) <a href="https://twitter.com/JackJumpers/status/1619539629761499136?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 29, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“There were times there where we bent but we didn’t break,” Roth said.

“They are scoring a large amount of points on everybody and they are continually running at that pace.

“We kept saying throughout the game, even when we were winning or a little bit in control I didn’t feel that way at all, I felt like we were playing into their hands to be going up and down at that kind of pace.

“I pleaded with these guys in the third and fourth quarters that you’re just going to have to sit and guard your yard and man up, take responsibility for the people in front of you.

“We continued to grind away, we made some critical shots but we got some actual stops consecutively and our ball pressure was pretty solid and allowed us to make that little run with three of four minutes left in the game.”

Illawarra almost ran the Breakers out of the gym on Thursday night, racking up a 16-point half-time lead behind their speed, ball movement and relentless interior attack via penetration or pass.

Once again, their inexperienced team was worn down as the game got to the pointy end as New Zealand manhandled them without recourse, but don’t expect them to change their aggressive approach.

“We were getting stops, it was what they did to us in the third quarter. We got stops, we ran it down their throat, we got a lot in transition and when we play like that we look good,” Sam Froling said.

“That’s what the second half of the season has been for us, we’re playing hard and we've got a young group that does that and I think we've done that pretty consistently bar a couple of games.

“This is the last one, we’ve got no excuses, we’re going to go out and compete. We gave them a run (for their money) last time and I don’t see why we can’t beat them. We’ve just got to produce four quarters."