Preview: Illawarra v Brisbane (Round 4)

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Monday 24 October, 2022
Where: WIN Entertainment Centre, Wollongong
Broadcast: ESPN; Foxtel; Kayo; Sky NZ
Live scores & stats

Who won last time?

Illawarra 108 (Reath 28, Cleveland 18, Harvey 18) d Brisbane 77 (Franks 19, Digbeu 14, Drmic 11) – Round 19, NBL22 at Nissan Arena, Brisbane

Late in NBL22 the Hawks were eyeing the post-season, while Brisbane were thinking of end-of-season holidays and it showed, Illawarra 10 in front after just five minutes and 20 ahead by midway through the second term. Antonius Cleveland was dominant with 18 points at 69 per cent, 10 boards and six dimes, while Tyler Harvey dropped five triples at 50 per cent.

What happened last game?

The Hawks managed just six trifectas as a team in their forgettable 88-62 home loss to New Zealand last Monday, returning from their late-game defeat in Adelaide lacking energy and paying the price. Brisbane were locked in Saturday night at the Fire Pit, producing arguably their best display of the season. Unfortunately, they once again couldn’t look after the ball nor keep opponents off the foul line, falling one-point short and dropping to 0-5.

What’s working?

Paint catches – Illawarra outscored the 36ers 43-33 across the middle quarters last round. On 25 of their 37 possessions they got a catch inside the paint, shooting 71 per cent from the field when they did. On the other 12 possessions they shot just 31 per cent. The Hawks don’t possess multiple players who can create one-on-one, even when Peyton Siva arrives, so getting the ball inside to collapse the defence and create space outside is essential.  

Cadee the starter – Coach James Duncan changed things up after four winless games, handing the keys to Jason Cadee and getting a smooth offensive drive in return. JC finished with 21 points at 50 per cent and five assists, while the Bullets shot an impressive 53 per cent from the floor en route to 88 points. If Cadee and Co can cut down on turnovers – they lead with NBL with 17.8 per game – then they will post some winning scores.

What needs stopping?

Separating Cadee & Johnson – While Cadee starting is good, it being at Johnson’s expense is not. In the 18:26 that pair played together, the Bullets scored 49 points (106.5 points per 40 minutes), shot 59 per cent and went +8. The ultra-efficient Johnson scored 13 points at 67 per cent in those 18 minutes, and the more he can play alongside the astute Cadee, the more opportunities he’ll get to impose his scoring power on the Bullets’ offence.

Fouling – Illawarra and Brisbane sit eighth and 10th respectively in defensive rating, and a large part of which is placing top two for fouls (19.4 and 19.2) and third and first for putting opponents to the foul line. The Hawks are -30 on scores from free throws in their four losses, but +3 in their lone win. The Bullets outscored South East Melbourne from inside and outside on Saturday, but gifted their hosts 26 free throws to their own 13 in a one-point loss.

Who’s matching up?

Sam Froling v Aron Baynes – Finally, the Bullets got the ball to Baynes in the right-hand block in Saturday’s third quarter, and he rolled middle for his lefty hook and then punished the overplay for a right-hand banker. He finished with 11 points at 63 per cent in his most efficient game since opening night. Can Cadee and Co find him in good spots earlier in the piece? And can Froling and Mangok Mathiang handle him if they do?

Wani Swaka Lo Buluk v Nathan Sobey – As if his pre-injury self had just clicked back in, Sobey-Wan Kenobi was a force as he rolled off eight points in two minutes late in the fourth quarter, including two dagger triples, to almost steal Brisbane’s first win on Saturday. Up to that stage he had two points on 1/11 shooting though, so Wani’s ability to force some tough shots early on Monday is important to seed doubt back in Sobes’ mind.

Tyler Harvey v Tyler Johnson – Remarkably, Harvey has shot 11/41 over the past three games, and that includes 5/22 from two-point range as he has uncharacteristically failed to punish teams running him off the arc. Johnson has had no issues with efficiency, shooting 52 per cent from the field and 59 per cent from deep, but he’s taken just 17 shots in 53 minutes the past two games, perhaps reflecting his long NBA career as a role player.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">TJ with the nasty step back ?‍?<br><br>?Tune in for the final quarter! <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@espnausnz</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RIVERCITYSTRONG?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#RIVERCITYSTRONG</a> <a href="https://t.co/apbRN6vRUH">pic.twitter.com/apbRN6vRUH</a></p>&mdash; Brisbane Bullets (@BrisbaneBullets) <a href="https://twitter.com/BrisbaneBullets/status/1583729852888190976?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 22, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

It’s only early days but the Hungry Jack’s NBL ladder doesn’t make great reading for Brisbane or the Hawks.

Illawarra, after back-to-back semi-final appearances, lost Duop Reath, Justinian Jessup, Xavier Rathan-Mayes and Antonius Cleveland, who accounted for 53.4ppg last season, a whopping 60 per cent of the team’s offence.

It’s no surprise the Hawks now sit ninth in scoring at just 79pgg – ahead of only the disjointed Melbourne United – or that they were held to 62 points by the dour Breakers last start.

However, while most would see a lack of firepower as their biggest issue, Tyler Harvey disagrees.

“Tonight definitely came down to our defence, it had nothing to do with the offensive end,” he said.

“Giving up (offensive) rebounds, that hurts. We definitely have the talent but when you have your flow messed up not getting stops and then playing set offence every single time, you can’t really get the movement of the defence.”

There’s no one in the league more dangerous in transition than Harvey, but right now he’s shooting a wayward 33 per cent, with most of his heaves heavily contested in the half-court.

“If there’s one thing I know about myself it’s I don’t have a problem scoring, it’s nothing really I worry about too much,” he said.

“We have to figure out as a team how to get everybody involved and get our (transition) offence going.

“For me individually, I don’t worry about scoring, it will come to me – it always has and always will and my track record proves that. We’ve got to get some wins, and it starts with defence with us.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Davo Hickey with the hands and the JAM! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HawkNation?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#HawkNation</a> <a href="https://t.co/7xprwOOfDE">pic.twitter.com/7xprwOOfDE</a></p>&mdash; Illawarra Hawks Basketball (@illawarrahawks) <a href="https://twitter.com/illawarrahawks/status/1581938407517073408?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 17, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Brisbane rank last in the NBL for defence, their rating of 117.2 points well above the rest of the league, which averages 107.1 with no other team higher than 112.

Yet for the point guard Jason Cadee, the issue starts at the other end.

“There are times when our offence puts so much pressure on our defence,” he said.

“With some of our turnovers or just confusion in offence and we end up with a shot we don’t want, then we’re on our heels trying to get back and defend.”

That view is backed up by the data, with Brisbane’s turnover percentage (20%) streets above the rest-of-NBL average of 14.3.

The Bullets led by 11 shortly before half-time against the Phoenix, but in the next five minutes of play committed five turnovers which SEM converted to 11 points to jump six ahead.

“Our turnovers hurt us again, that was a big issue for us,” coach Duncan said.

“We just need to value the ball, we’re not doing that at a high level right now and that’s hurting us. We’re giving those teams extra possessions, especially when it’s a live-ball situation and they're getting easy lay-ups.

“Our half-court defence is pretty solid but we can’t guard turnovers and then them running down for easy lay-ups.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">? ICYMI Just before HT<br><br>Steal from Browne ?? Te Rangi Bucket ?<br><br>? <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> ?? <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/Foxtel?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Foxtel</a> <a href="https://t.co/eYamYXu2vK">pic.twitter.com/eYamYXu2vK</a></p>&mdash; South East Melbourne Phoenix (@SEMelbPhoenix) <a href="https://twitter.com/SEMelbPhoenix/status/1583721440440094721?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 22, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

There is no doubt the Bullets are downcast, but Cadee is trying to keep perspective that two of their past three games have been lost in overtime and by a point to quality opposition on the road.

“It’s hard to feel happy about something when your record is what it is, but at the end of the day there are more positives to take out of this game,” he said.

“We've got to go to Wollongong on Monday and add to this, and hopefully getting one win will take some pressure off.”

The Hawks have lost three on the bounce, but with three of their next four at the Sandpit, coach Jacob Jackomas knows his team must pinch some Ws with workrate as they await Peyton Siva.

That’s an area they were completely outplayed in by the Breakers last week.

“Everything you’re talking about is energy,” he said.

“We've got to create our own energy. That’s part of the game plan having to do that, and today we weren’t very good. In that space, the energy space, we’re young and we’re youthful, we should be energetic, we just didn’t get it done.”

That’s something they can ill-afford against the desperate Bullets.“I think it’s going to be two teams that need a win,” Jackomas said.

“It’s going to be the team that wants it more at the end of the day, I know that’s a bit of a cliché, but everyone’s got a little bit dented, and I think it’s going to be the strongest group that gets across the line because both teams have got a lot of talent.”