Preview: Cairns v Sydney (Round 8)

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Monday 28 November, 2022
Where: Cairns Convention Centre
Broadcast: ESPN; Foxtel; Kayo; Sky NZ

Who won last time?

Sydney 106 (Cooks 18, Bruce 17, Noi 13) d Cairns 103 (Hogg 27, Waardenburg 20, Pinder 18) – Round 5 at Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney

The Kings and Taipans have been the rivalry of NBL23 so far, playing out two thrillers at the Q. Cairns were on the cusp of pinching two in a row when they led by 11 in Round 5, as their frontcourt fired and their fast-paced offence caught Sydney napping. But some mental errors let the Kings back in, Shaun Bruce caught fire in the fourth, before firing a bullet pass to Kouat Noi who drained the game-winning three against his old team.

What happened last game?

Sydney escaped with another buzzer-beater in Round 7, Bruce this time the recipient of an Angus Glover feed before putting the Hawks to sleep. That clutch shot masked some of the issues the Kings faced without Xavier Cooks, their defence suspect against penetration. The Taipans’ defence was porous in the second half in the loss to New Zealand, leaking 47 points as their d-trans struggled to cover for some wayward decision making at the other end.

What’s working?

Big-time plays – It seems like half of Sydney’s roster lives for the big moment. In Round 1, Derrick Walton and Cooks scored 15 in the final three minutes to sink the Hawks. Against Cairns, Bruce scored 11 final-quarter points then found Noi for the clutch game-winner. Last week, Glover, DJ Vasiljevic and Justin Simon all made big plays before Bruce finished the job. The Kings are 5-2 in games decided by 10 or less, while the Taipans are 4-2.

Getting leads – Cairns haven’t lost an opening quarter in 39 days and are 4-1 in those first halves, skipping out to an average biggest lead of 9.4 points to start each game. They’ve done it with defence, keeping opponents to 16.2 points in those five first periods, while at the offensive end it’s Keanu Pinder and DJ Hogg firing early, combining for 10.2 points in the opening 10 minutes with Hogg nailing 70 per cent inside and 42 per cent from deep.

What needs stopping?

Paint raids – The Kings were +16 on points in the paint last time, converting at 56 per cent inside and getting to the foul line 30 times. Cooks scored 18 points from ‘ones and twos’, Jordan Hunter 11, Jaylin Galloway 10 and DJ Vasiljevic nine as Sydney attempted 43 of their 48 two-point attempts from inside the key. The Taipans’ starting five committed 19 fouls between them, and they need to do a better job of containment before the ball gets deep.

Cairns’ frontcourt – Sydney had few answers for the Snakes’ frontline last time, Hogg, Pinder, Majok Deng and Sam Waardenburg compiling 79 points on 13/23 shooting inside and 12/24 outside, dishing eight dimes and going17/24 from the foul line as they spread the Kings out and took them on. Fifty of those 79 points came in the first 12 seconds of the shot clock, so Sydney best be ready to track back and smack that, to quote the Goatmentator.

Who’s matching up?

Shannon Scott v Derrick Walton – Scott again struggled against pressure from good teams on Friday. The Snakes PG has averaged 7.8 assists and just 1.2 turnovers against teams below Cairns, but against Sydney and New Zealand it’s 7.0 and 3.3. Walton had similar issues in Round 5, coughing up five turnovers and going -13 in 19 minutes as Sydney closed the game out without him. Can one of this pair keep their composure and deliver victory?

DJ Hogg v Justin Simon – The long-armed Simon charged to the Damian Martin Trophy in NBL21 on the back of his outstanding dogging of ball-handlers. However, in recent times his off-ball defence has been found wanting. Tyler Harvey burned him for 32 last round, while in Round 5 Hogg dropped 27 on 7/11 from long range. With Hogg bouncing back off a four-point, 1/5 three-point shooting night against the Breakers, Simon needs to be on his game.

Keanu Pinder v Xavier Cooks – Pinder got the best of this battle in Round 3, but second time around he shot 5/15 and fouled out while Cooks almost racked up a triple-double, his 18 points on 6/9 shooting, 12 rebounds and eight assists firming his status as early MVP favourite. X is returning from an ankle injury, while Pinder dominated NZ early but had four points on 2/6 and three turnovers in the final 18 minutes as the Breakers marched away.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Putting in ??????<br><br>Watch it live on <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> via <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/Foxtel?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Foxtel</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeTheKings?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeTheKings</a> <a href="https://t.co/Px4ID65IWy">pic.twitter.com/Px4ID65IWy</a></p>&mdash; Sydney Kings (@SydneyKings) <a href="https://twitter.com/SydneyKings/status/1586296349389213697?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 29, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Plenty of people like to hype up the Cooks-Pinder marquee match-up, and for good reason, but Keanu isn’t interested in playing that game.

“I don’t really feel like it’s a challenge to me in this league. They have some good bigs but I feel like I hold my own. I don’t really feel like it’s a challenge at all honestly,” he said after the teams’ Round 5 clash.

To most it would seem like a strange comment, given Cooks outplayed him that night, shooting a blistering 67 per cent and dominating the d-boards with 10, while KP fouled out, shot a miserable 33 per cent and managed just one solitary o-board.

On a broader scale, Pinder has yet to play a single NBL playoff game, while Cooks is a reigning champion with the Larry Sengstock Medal for Grand Final MVP fresh in his trophy cabinet.

Although Pinder’s comments seem like the mindset of an irrational confidence guy, they actually reflect the mentality Adam Forde has instilled to drive his team well beyond the expectations of most.

“There’s two types of  players in the league, where you’ve got dudes that are happy to be in the NBL collecting a pay cheque, and then there’s guys that strive for greatness and they want more,” Forde said post-game in Sydney.

“Everyone wrote us off, and that was their prerogative to do so, but we've got a bunch of dudes in that room right now that are sitting there thinking we should be 6-1, dropping the games that we did.

“They feel it, we’re not just here collecting a pay cheque, we’re striving for greatness.”

It’s that mindset that left the Taipans guttered after falling by three to the Kings on the road, a result that may have been seen as a moral victory a year ago.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ice Cold Noi ?<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeTheKings?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeTheKings</a> <a href="https://t.co/0seyTrIyBb">pic.twitter.com/0seyTrIyBb</a></p>&mdash; Sydney Kings (@SydneyKings) <a href="https://twitter.com/SydneyKings/status/1587293380115054593?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 1, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“We dropped this one, this is on us,” Forde said.

“There was a time-out Sydney called and we were up 11, we talked about our championship mentality, that mindset to do what Perth did to us at our joint, when they got up 10 they got up 20, then they got up 30, have that mindset.

“We came out and they just go on their run. We had to do a better job of defending without fouling, we got excitable with some of the things we do defensively unnecessarily.”

At that point, Kings boss Chase Buford went to the small-ball line-up of Jaylin Galloway, Kouat Noi, Angus Glover, DJ Vasiljevic and Shaun Bruce – with Cooks inserted shortly after – and it threw the Cairns defence out of kilter.

“We were jumping at shadows, when for a good portion of that first half we stuck to the game plan and sinking it in and then suddenly we’re chasing non-shooters on the perimeter like they're Steph Curry,” Forde said.

“We didn’t have to make any adjustments, they didn’t put out knock-down shooters, so they were running the weave action and we were chasing it on the perimeter for some reason, dumb basketball.”

The Kings unleashed a 23-6 run over the next six minutes, holding Cairns to 1/7 from the field and forcing six turnovers behind the brilliance of Bruce.

“We were just searching for something, we wanted to come out of half-time with a mentality or mindset and we weren’t showing that, Brucey came in and flipped it for us straight away,” Buford said.

“He got into the ball, gave us a little life, a little spark, a little energy, made some shots obviously which helped, but was a real calming influence.

“I think he gave a cattle prod up everybody else’s butt to get their ass in gear and show a little pride and emotion, and pride to guard your man.”

While that stretch was outstanding, in the other 34 minutes the Taipans scored 97 points at 52 per cent and got to the foul line 25 times, highlighting Sydney’s struggles defending a versatile frontcourt and a team that attacks from the first second of the shot clock.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">????? ??????&#39;? ?????. ?<br><br>DJ Hogg with the steal at one end, and splash at the other! <a href="https://t.co/kk5fZ7q6EV">pic.twitter.com/kk5fZ7q6EV</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1586304670212816897?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 29, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“We were so bad defensively all over the place,” Buford lamented.

“We wanted to adjust to some of their shooters but we screwed up coverages on that, we blew our normal base style, we were never defending the rim, it was just a disaster defensively.”

The Kings have got the job done offensively though, and have now won four on the trot. They need to topple the Taipans to stay top however, with the Breakers breathing down their necks.

In contrast, Cairns have only won two of their past five, and will fall behind the Phoenix to fourth if they drop yet another home game on Monday.

Given that would take them to 1-4 against the Kings and New Zealand, it would leave some questions to be answered about their championship credentials.

A victory, however, moves them within a game of Sydney with Brisbane and Illawarra on the menu in two of their next three outings, and coach Forde isn’t worried about Friday’s loss dragging into Monday.

“This is a good group, a very professional group, obviously they’ll be disappointed with this, but we know we have to review it and a quick turnaround,” he said.

“Different style of play, different game plan, so it will be a quick turnaround, but the beautiful thing after a game like this is to have a quick turnaround and not have to wait two weeks or one week to play again.”