Preview: Cairns v Melbourne (Round 6)

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Friday 4 November, 2022

Where: Cairns Convention Centre

Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ

Who won the last time?

Cairns 81 (Pinder 26, Scott 19, Hogg 13) d Melbourne 77 (Rathan-Mayes 21, Tucker 19, Goulding 16) – Round 4 at John Cain Arena

Melbourne looked the goods in this Round 4 clash, leading by 11 in the second term and 14 in the fourth as they locked their visitors into half-court offence and Chris Goulding, Xavier Rathan-Mayes and Rayjon Tucker scored 38 of United’s first 55 points. But then the Snakes peeled off a 22-0 run as they found defensive bite and offensive pace, Shannon Scott’s outside fire and Keanu Pinder’s dominant drives leading Cairns to a memorable W.

What happened last game?

The Taipans’ trip to Sydney was also a memorable battle, even if a late defensive slip-up allowed Kouat Noi’s Kings to prevail. Ultimately it was a 23-6 Sydney run bridging the final break the cost Cairns, but there was plenty to like about their 97-83 dominance over the other 34 minutes. There were plenty of great signs Melbourne against Perth; early shots for Goulding, inside feeds for Humphries, post-ups for Xavier Rathan-Mayes, smart reads and off-ball cutting from Brad Newley and Shea Ili pushing United past 90 points in regulation for the first time.

What’s working?

Shannon Scott’s composure – Scott’s steadying influence has been well discussed, and it shows up statistically. In Cairns losses he averages 3.3 turnovers, while in wins that shrinks to 1.0. Last time against United, the Snakes had six cough-ups in the opening 13 minutes, including both of Scott’s, and were outscored by 11 points. They only burped it up seven times in the final 27 minutes, with Scott perfect, and were 15 points to the better.

Shea’s back – Few disrupt opponents and force turnovers better than Shea Ili, and he had an impact upon return against Perth. The stat sheet says nine points and four assists in 12 minutes, which is impressive enough, but the change in Melbourne’s intensity and speed was noticeable. Have no doubt he will be given the task of shadowing Shannon, but given Shili committed four fouls in 12 minutes on Monday, he’ll need to temper his enthusiasm.

What needs stopping?

Xavier Rathan-Mayes – Ili’s return obviously causes some adjustments to XRM’s role, but it didn’t seem to bother him against the Wildcats, going for 25 points at 62 per cent, 10 rebounds, three assists and five steals as he perhaps fed off his fellow point guard’s defensive energy. Impressively, Rathan-Mayes scored six at the cup, four from floater range, six on long twos and six from the arc. If Ili keeps hitting a high percentage of threes as he did Monday, his return might even make X’s all-around offensive game more dangerous.

Keanu’s drive time – Melbourne had no answer for Pinder’s rim runs in Round 4 – be it as the roller or on the dribble after ball movement – the athletic big man scoring 26 points from ‘ones and twos’, with all his buckets from within five feet. Melbourne’s lack of length at the four spot allowed KP to finish with ease, but David Okwera stepped up in that department against Perth, and more of the same will be needed given Pinder has shot 29/49 at 59 per cent from two-point range in wins, compared to 14/36 at 39 per cent in Ls.

Who’s matching up?

Bul Kuol v Chris Goulding – Kuol has been in defensive form recently, and he’ll need to be as CG43 is starting to find range. He has shot 8/13 from two-point range the past two games while downing 3.5 triples at 35 per cent. That clip can easily skyrocket if he keeps getting 8.5 long-range launches per night, so Kuol must limit those looks and make him a driver.

Sam Waardenburg v David Okwera – Two young guns finding their feet, the big Kiwi with 20 points at 60 per cent, four boards, three assists, two steals and two triples against the Kings, while Okwera’s four assists, three big blocks and two steals against Perth speaks of his versatility and athleticism, which will be needed against Cairns’ multi-faceted frontcourt.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">&quot;Absolutely not today&quot;<br>-David Okwera<br><br>?: ESPN via Kayo or Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/vM9gy0gOxk">pic.twitter.com/vM9gy0gOxk</a></p>&mdash; Melbourne United (@MelbUnited) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnited/status/1587020932467798016?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 31, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Humility during success can be a good thing, poking the bear usually is not.

When Melbourne hosted the Taipans in Round 4, Xavier Rathan-Mayes span baseline from the low post on Shannon Scott and scored on a reverse lay-up.

He immediately flashed a ‘too small’ signal in the direction of his Cairns counterpart, the overly-exaggerated nature of it bordering on arrogance.

In commentary, Damon Lowery said XRM should “just make the lay-up and get back down the court”, while Scott simply kept the receipts.

At that point in the second term, Melbourne led by nine and Rathan-Mayes had already racked up eight points on 4/6 shooting with two dimes, while Shannon was scoreless and had coughed up two turnovers.

After XRM’s gesture, however, Scott dropped 19 points on 8/11 to go with eight assists and Cairns outscored Melbourne 66-53 to post a memorable road win.

While those numbers are remarkable for just over two-and-a-half quarters of basketball, the veteran point guard did it without straying from his team’s offence or forcing anything.

“Shannon’s doing his job, he’s a seasoned veteran, he's a point guard,” coach Adam Forde said.

“We don’t offer out free rides because you’ve got a nice smile and we like people. He’s doing his job the way he should, and massive props to Shannon for being the massive professional he is.”

In Cairns’ decisive 22-0 run, Scott had eight points and three assists, while Melbourne fired blanks walking the ball up possession after possession after taking it out of the net.

There were no long scoring droughts against Perth, however, as United scored 21 points from turnovers, held the 'Cats to 40 per cent shooting and ran off 30 defensive boards, and got into the lane to create 21 assists.

https://twitter.com/MelbUnited/status/1587024575950618630<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">IT&#39;S TUCKER TIME!!!<br><br>Rayjon Tucker drained a corner three, then served up this <a href="https://twitter.com/DoorDash?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@DoorDash</a> Dunk<br><br>?: ESPN via Kayo or Foxtel<a href="https://twitter.com/th3flighttuck?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@th3flighttuck</a> <a href="https://t.co/rguRRJkpXq">pic.twitter.com/rguRRJkpXq</a></p>&mdash; Melbourne United (@MelbUnited) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnited/status/1587024575950618630?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 31, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

It’s no surprise that happened in the game Shea Ili returned.

“One of our struggles this year without him has just been creation,” coach Dean Vickerman said.

“We saw the effect he had on the game when he put his feet in the paint and Tuck already had a connection, if I just move and cut when he penetrates then something good’s going to happen.

“We've been lacking transition points and lacking pace, as a group we can really grow in that area and get some cheap points and he’s going to have a lot to do with that.”

The change in pace also brought out the best in Brad Newley, who struggled early in the season but was a game-high +21 against the Wildcats in a new role.

“It was a little bit of a forced one in the Wollongong game, we were down another big so let’s try him at the four,” Vickerman said.

“There’s a little bit more ball that goes through the four, there’s some opportunities for him to go downhill, and once we saw an advantage we started running some plays for him to get downhill.

“Him and Barlow had a pretty good connection when they were on together as bigs with what they were able to switch and what they were able to slide through.”

That frontcourt defence will be sternly tested in Cairns on Friday, given the versatility a line-up of Keanu Pinder, Majok Deng, DJ Hogg and Sam Waardenburg provides.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Sam Waardenburg putting in WORK in Sydney, leading all scorers at the half with 17 points! ?<br><br>Watch LIVE now on ESPN via Kayo &amp; Foxtel ? <a href="https://t.co/Vh3V86ZK1t">pic.twitter.com/Vh3V86ZK1t</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1586299952178741248?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 29, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

In the last-gasp loss to Sydney, that quartet delivered 79 points at 53 per cent, 12/24 from the arc, 21 rebounds, eight assists, eight steals and four blocks.

“Honestly there’s no one like us with how deep we are, it’s incredible,” Pinder said.

“Joky just came out and killed it tonight, Sam played awesome, DJ played awesome, all us bigs, we all played well.”

However, at the other end Melbourne have the speed of Newley, the shooting of Barlow, the size and roll-out ability of Isaac Humphries and the rapidly emerging David Okwera, who is providing all of that in one package as he plugs holes in the United defence.

“Regardless if the guy’s a little bigger and heavier he’s handled that well, if he’s a bit smaller and quicker he’s handled that ok, just the multiple guys he’s been able to guard,” Vickerman said.

“He’s initiating the offence as well, when we throw it to him just over the half and he attacks downhill, he’s doing a good job with his ball-handling creating an advantage on the first side ... love his rim protection and he really can shoot the basketball.”

It sets up a classic battle between a Melbourne side that is unbeaten on the road, and a Taipans team yet to win at home.

“It showed in that last game against New Zealand that we played tight,” Forde said.

“We did a great job defensively but we played tight and I wear that one because I unnecessarily hyped up the game so early in the season.

“We've just got to play like we did (in Sydney), play loose, play free, play for each other, not get caught up in the things we can’t control, play that Cairns Taipans style of basketball.”