Preview: Brisbane v Adelaide (Round 16)

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Thursday 19 January, 2023
Where: Nissan Arena, Brisbane
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel, Sky NZ
LIVE STATS AND BOX SCORE

Who won last time?

Adelaide 87 (Franks 18, Cleveland 13, Drmic 11) d Brisbane 84 (Sobey 24, Krebs 13, Johnson 12, White 12) – Round 13, Adelaide Entertainment Centre

Nathan Sobey caught fire and the Bullets zone befuddled the home side and held them to eight points in the third term. Brisbane were on the cusp of Greg Vanderjagt’s first coaching W when they led by six early in the fourth term. But in front of a then-record Adelaide crowd the 36ers produced a now-trademark final-quarter charge. Robert Franks and Antonius Cleveland the catalysts for an 11-0 run and CJ Bruton’s men then kept their heads from the foul line before surviving a potential Tyler Johnson game-tying three on the buzzer.

What happened last game?

There were no furious charges on the road, however, as Adelaide crashed miserably in Hobart and Perth in Round 15 to Melbourne and the Wildcats to eighth on the NBL ladder. Brisbane started Round 15 with a nightmare 49-point loss to Sydney, but showed improvement with a 10-point defeat to United, then travelled to South East Melbourne and claimed an unfashionable win thanks to Jason Cadee’s hot hand.

What’s working?

Franks, Cleveland & Drmic – In two wins over Brisbane the 36ers have had the same three leading scorers, with Franks, Cleveland and Drmic combining for 103 of their 195 points. They’ve done it with aggression too, combing for 82 of their team’s 138 points from ‘ones and twos’. Adelaide’s three-game losing streak certainly hasn’t been on Franks, who’s averaged 23ppg at 59 per cent and shot 11/20 from range, while Cleveland’s averaged 16.3ppg at 51 per cent.

Bullets backcourt – The all-Aussie duo of Sobey and Cadee is quick to cop criticism when things aren't going well in Brisbane, but with their team in danger of imploding following the slaying from Sydney they’ve responded to average a combined 32.5ppg and 7.5 assists against Melbourne and the Phoenix. Perhaps the most important part of delivering Monday’s drought-breaking win was only two turnovers between them in 63 minutes.

What needs stopping?

Giving up centuries – Brisbane only gave up 79 points on Monday, after leaking 101.1ppg in their previous 13 outings. Why so bad? One big factor is putting opponents to the foul line, having given up 27.1 free throws in the past nine contests. Another reason is Brisbane averages a league-worst -5.5 in the possession game which has resulted in fewer scoring opportunities than its opponents in 16 straight games. Against the Phoenix they won despite allowing a whopping 24 offensive rebounds, and they won’t get the job done by giving Franks, Daniel Johnson and Ian Clark second looks.

Home-only defence – With the season on the line, and two big road games facing you, you pick up the defence, right? Wrong. Adelaide were plundered for 105ppg at 52 per cent inside and 47 per cent outside in Round 15, and they were missing the defensive intensity that has saved their bacon late in games at a packed Adelaide Entertainment Centre. In their past six home games they’ve held teams to 18.3 points in the fourth period while forcing 4.7 turnovers. In their past four meaningful final terms on the road, they’ve given up 26.8 points while forcing just 2.3 turnovers.

Who’s matching up?

Aron Baynes v Kai Sotto – The flying Filipino took the honours the first time this pair met with 13 points and eight rebounds in 22 minutes, but second time around the 'Big Banga' returned fire with 10 points and 12 rebounds, including four on the offensive end. Baynes dominated the offensive glass with eight against Melbourne, and Kai will need plenty of help in order to contest Sobey’s drives without giving up easy put-backs to the NBA champion centre.

Tyler Johnson v Ian Clark – If Clark makes his game-winning triple against NZ then Adelaide are just 0.5 games behind the Breakers. They are not, of course, and IC has gone 2/14 from distance in the three-game skid. The 36ers desperately need him on song in their final games of the season. Johnson’s mid-rangers are money, but after shooting 14/24 from deep in his opening six NBL games, he’s 11/50 since, and a return to long-range form could deliver another win.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Johnson from the C?RNER.<br><br>The Bullets are ???????? through this quarter - 23-11! ?<br><br>Watch <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL23?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL23</a> live on ESPN via Kayo Sports + Foxtel ? <a href="https://t.co/AVZnOS5DN3">pic.twitter.com/AVZnOS5DN3</a></p>&mdash; NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1614170072670703616?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 14, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

In one short sentence, coach CJ Bruton summed up the 36ers’ Round 15 blues.

“It was living with them shooting two-balls which we didn’t quite get done,” he said post-game in Perth.

Of course, not quite is a little bit of an understatement. The Wildcats – who make the most threes in the NBL and the third best percentage – got what they wanted en route to 15/27 from deep and 112 points.

Tasmania, who make the second most triples in the league, dropped 13/32 as the JackJumpers ran their own 98-point offensive clinic.

Perhaps most disappointing for Adelaide fans was their team’s inability to make opposition lesser-lights beat them, with sharpshooters Brady Manek (6/9), Corey Webster (2/3), Jack McVeigh (6/7) and Milton Doyle (3/6) doing most of the damage.

It took until the final quarter of their two-game road trip to keep an opponent below 23 points, forcing nine turnovers in 10 minutes after getting just 15 in the first 70 minutes of Round 15.

“How we finished the game, we need to continue to play with that sort of pressure and effort levels,” Bruton said.

“While it wasn't their starters on the floor at the end, it doesn't matter, it's competing and playing at an elite level, playing desperate basketball and playing like you're in a war and getting after it.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A big block from Kai earns him the Haggle Co Haggles Hustle.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeAreSixers?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeAreSixers</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SwoopTheHoop?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#SwoopTheHoop</a> <a href="https://t.co/jPRyvWAd5g">pic.twitter.com/jPRyvWAd5g</a></p>&mdash; Adelaide 36ers (@Adelaide36ers) <a href="https://twitter.com/Adelaide36ers/status/1614449794860158977?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 15, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

After dropping four from their past five to slip to eighth place, the 36ers’ road home seems tough, but Mitch McCarron knows their playoff destiny is still in their own hands, and two wins this weekend could have them back in the top six.

“That’s in the past, we lost the games, now we just have to go and win these ones. If we go 5-0 there’s a very good chance we go and make finals,” he said.

“We haven’t lived up to our standards, not so much the outside pressure, but the standards from within, we haven’t executed down the stretch and in this league if you don’t do that, you don’t win.”

The Bullets finally won on Monday, breaking a five-game skid, and coach Greg Vanderjagt loved the selflessness that drove the victory, starting with Jason Cadee on a blistering 28-point night.

“I went to put him back in and he said, ‘No, don’t put me back in, this group is rolling, they're defending, Rasmus is doing a great job, stay with him’,” Vandy said post-game.

“The group’s happy for each other to have success.”

It was the same with Boomers legend Aron Baynes, who played just 11 minutes.

“If you look at Banga’s energy on the bench and his talk it’s positive, he’s up and about in the group, he’s giving advice to guys,” Vanderjagt.

“He’s still coaching from the sidelines, coming to me with advice in terms of subs and what he’s seeing, because he’s been around a long time, he knows what he’s talking about.

“He was great against United the other night, he had 21 and 11. Tonight things didn’t go his way but other people stepped up; DJ was good, Harry was good, Tyrell was good, Gak gave us good minutes, we found other guys to contribute.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">JASON CADEE ?<br><br>Catch the fourth quarter action live on ESPN via Kayo Sports and Foxtel ? <a href="https://t.co/Ow3iaL9XBg">pic.twitter.com/Ow3iaL9XBg</a></p>&mdash; NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1614933587090100229?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 16, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Of Baynes’ 21 points against Melbourne, 12 came from offensive rebounds, while another five were directly assisted.

It shows the Bullets are starting to utilise players’ strengths, with Baynes, Gorjok Gak and Tyrell Harrison finishers, not focal points, DJ Mitchell and Andrew White sharp-shooting floor-spreaders and their trio of guards the creative force.

“If you look at us on paper we’re as good as any team in the NBL, there’s no doubt about that,” Vanderjagt said.

“If you take it out of Jase’s hands and now it’s in Sobey’s hands, he’s pretty good going downhill.

“Now it’s in Tyler Johnson’s hands, he’s got one of the best in-between games in the league, his decision-making, floaters and his touch around the rim is unbelievable.”

Vanderjagt oozed confidence after the victory, and Adelaide know they must knock that out of Brisbane early or face a very long night trying to keep their playoff hopes alive.

“We will come in and make sure the game plan is tight, then go in and win the first quarter. First quarters have got away from us over the last few games,” Bruton said.

“This means making the playoffs, or not making the playoffs, every possession counts … I know that right now, we control our destiny and the first game is against Brisbane and making sure we go up there and get that win.”