Your Team's Run Home (Round 16)

The regular season run-in is here, and the competition is so tight it seems like there are dozens of permutations that could play out over the next three rounds.

We've seen through the likes of Melbourne United and the New Zealand Breakers that form can flip on a dime, and the Bullets provided one of the upsets of the season last weekend against the Phoenix.

If there's anything the last few weeks of NBL23 has told us, it's that nothing is set in stone.

With three rounds left, eight teams remain in the finals equation.

RELATED: New look finals system

NBL Media runs through each team's run home as we approach Round 16.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">With 3?? rounds left, who can lock down a spot in that top six? ?<br><br>Can the Bullets or Hawks play the villain in the other team&#39;s stories and spoil some parties? Who can get hot when it matters? ?<br><br>Round 16 is just around the corner ? <a href="https://t.co/a6TIzVMvsS">pic.twitter.com/a6TIzVMvsS</a></p>&mdash; NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1615118800017559552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 16, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Position – First
Record – 17-5
Win Percentage – 77.27
Points Percentage – 111.93

Heading into NBL23 the Sydney Kings loomed as the team to beat. Now, 15 rounds in, the rest of the competition is still chasing them.

The Kings are one win ahead of their closest contender – the Cairns Taipans – while also holding a game in hand.

Their six remaining games will be anything but smooth sailing though, as they’re coming up against teams that will be willing to throw the kitchen sink to secure a victory and continue playoff qualification hopes.

In the week leading into Round 16 Peter Hooley said this Kings squad might actually benefit from a loss to help lock them back in, but they’ll certainly be looking to prove their dominance in the final games of the regular season.

Liam Santamaria says: “As the best team in the league, the Kings will have a big say in who does and does not make the playoffs. All six of their remaining games are against teams in the mix and the reality is: Chase Buford’s crew are going to win the vast majority – if not all – of those games.”

Their Run Home:
Perth (5^th) – Away
New Zealand (3^rd) – Home
Tasmania (4^th) – Away
South East Melbourne (7^th) – Home
Adelaide (8^th) – Away
Perth (5^th) - Home

Position – Second
Record – 16-7
Win Percentage – 69.57
Points Percentage – 103.83

The Snakes keep slithering in NBL23. With or without Keanu Pinder they just keep finding ways to win.

Pinder’s absence in the last six games initially loomed as a potential death-knell for the Taipans’ hopes of a high finish, however every single player on their roster has admirably stepped up in the star’s absence.

They’ve had some scares – notably against Adelaide and Illawarra last week – and there will be some doubts around Pinder’s fitness heading into finals if he doesn’t return in Round 16 – but having three of their final five games against teams outside the top six could prove to be a blessing.

Liam Santamaria says: “The Taipans are going to be playing some hungry sides across their run home but, with three of their remaining five at home, they should be able to win enough to lock in a top-two spot.”

Their Run Home:
Tasmania (4^th) – Home
South East Melbourne (7^th) – Away
Brisbane (9^th) – Home
Adelaide (8^th) – Home
Perth (5^th) – Away

Position – Third
Record – 13-9
Win Percentage – 59.09
Points Percentage – 107.03

Every side experiences skids over the season. Unfortunately for New Zealand that skid is coming at the business end of the campaign.

The Breakers have lost three straight games to slip down to third on the ladder. While they’re still in a remarkable position heading into the final few weeks they’ll be frustrated they loosened their grip on that important top-two spot.

Barry Brown Jr’s absence has coincided with the side’s slip, so Mody Maor will want him back in the line-up as soon as possible.

They have, on paper, the best run home of any team in the competition and play each of the bottom-two twice. Big wins their could help New Zealand regain its mojo, or it could kill its confidence.

Maor labelled his team’s efforts as “average” following the Round 15 loss to Cairns, so it remains to be seen just how they’ll respond.

Liam Santamaria says: “With four of their final six games against the bottom two sides, there’s no way the Breakers will finish any lower than third. The question is: can they claw their back inside the top two?”

Their Run Home:
Illawarra (10^th) – Home
Sydney (1^st) – Away
Brisbane (9^th) – Away
Melbourne (6^th) – Home
Illawarra (10^th) – Away
Brisbane (9^th) - Away

Position – Fourth
Record – 13-10
Win Percentage – 56.52
Points Percentage – 103.43

It seems like yesterday the JackJumpers looked streets behind in the race for the top six. Now they’re streets ahead of some of the main competition for the finals places.

While they’ve played one more game than Perth – who are breathing down their necks in fifth – and New Zealand – who are sitting in third on win percentage alone – the JackJumpers could easily move clear of the wrestling for the final couple of play-in spots with a good Round 16.

While they play both of the top two, their clash with Sydney will come in front of a raucous home crowd in Hobart, and their game against Perth could become crucial in the final positioning on the ladder.

Liam Santamaria says: “With the Snakes and Kings right around the corner, Wednesday’s match-up with SEM is a big one for Tassie. That said, Scott Roth’s team is way too solid to miss out on the post-season from here.”

Their Run Home:
South East Melbourne (7^th) – Home
Cairns (2^nd) – Away
Sydney (1^st) – Home
Perth (5^th) – Away
Illawarra (10^th) - Away

Position – Fifth
Record – 12-10
Win Percentage – 54.55
Points Percentage – 100.75

Perth have done extremely well to put themselves into a strong position to play finals basketball after the side’s struggles and inconsistencies to start the season. While their destiny is very much in their own hands, their run home is looking challenging.

Two games against Sydney and one against Cairns headlines the Wildcats’ final fixtures, and games against South East Melbourne and Tasmania could easily come down to the wire.

The acquisition of Tai Webster looks to be a masterstroke for the Wildcats, and he’s added some extra offensive help that Brady Manek and Bryce Cotton have needed in recent weeks, while TaShawn Thomas is playing the best basketball of his career inside.

If Perth struggles against the best sides in the competition in these last few weeks we may be looking at a Cat-less finals series two years in a row. If they perform well though they’ll be setting themselves up well for the post-season.

Liam Santamaria says: “No matter which way you look at it, the Wildcats have a seriously tough run home. With three games against the current top two – including a couple against the Kings – Cotton & Co. will need to be outstanding to stay inside the top six. That said, the ‘Cats are playing well at the right time of year and have whacked the Taipans twice previously this season.”

Their Run Home:
Sydney (1^st) - Home
South East Melbourne (7^th) - Away
Illawarra (10^th) – Home
Tasmania (4^th) – Away
Cairns (2^nd) – Home
Sydney (1^st) - Home

Position –  Sixth
Record – 13-12
Win Percentage - 52
Points Percentage - 100

Is Melbourne the hottest team in the NBL right now? While there are a bunch of people in Far North Queensland who will happily debate the question, the answer is likely yes.

Marcus Lee has been a revelation since arriving mid-season, and he and Rayjon Tucker have strong-armed United back into finals contention.

United have played more games than any other team in the top six, so each of their remaining fixtures will count in the run in. They can’t afford to drop many – if any – games if they want to be taking part in the post-season.

They play the 36ers twice in their final three games, and if Adelaide can secure wins in both those games then Melbourne could easily find itself out of the top six at their expense.

Liam Santamaria says: “I think 15 wins will be enough to secure a top six spot and United only need to claim two of their final three to get to that mark. Considering they’ve won seven of their past eight, I have no doubt they’re going to get that done – impressive stuff from a team who were a long way behind a month or so ago.”

Their Run Home:
Adelaide (8^th) – Away
New Zealand (3^rd) – Away
Adelaide (8^th) - Home

Position – Seventh
Record – 12-12
Win Percentage – 50
Points Percentage – 100.42

If Melbourne is flying right now, South East Melbourne is flopping. The Phoenix have played more games than anyone in the competition bar their crosstown rivals, and they may need some results to go their way if they want to sneak into the top six.

Round 15’s loss to Brisbane could be looked on as a turning point in the season should they not qualify for playoffs – the full-strength South East Melbourne couldn’t dispatch a struggling Bullets side in front of a sold-out State Basketball Centre crowd.

The return to fitness of Gary Browne and Trey Kell is a massive step in the right direction, but their final two games coming against the top two could prove a stumbling block.

Liam Santamaria says: “One minute the Phoenix were knocking on the door of the top two and the next, they’re peering through the window of the entire play-in tournament. That was a bad loss to Brisbane on Monday, and it puts a whole lot of pressure on their remaining four games – all against quality opposition.”

Their Run Home:
Tasmania (4^th) – Away
Perth (5^th) – Home
Cairns (2^nd) – Home
Sydney (1^st) – Away

Position – Eighth
Record – 11-12
Win Percentage – 47.83
Points Percentage – 98.07

The Adelaide 36ers did themselves no favours in Round 15. After entering the weekend a nose ahead of the rest of the pack chasing the final play-in spots, losses to Tasmania and Perth have seriously hurt their post-season chances.

Two parts of the run-home will give hope to CJ Burton’s men though. Their two toughest fixtures – coming against the current top two on the ladder in Cairns and Sydney – both come at home.

They also play another side hoping to scrape into the final play-in places twice; Melbourne United.

Their next game comes against the Brisbane Bullets, and that looms as a must-win clash. Should they emerge with a win they should still hold some level of control over their destiny in the final games.

Liam Santamaria says: “Those Round 15 games were huge for Adelaide and dropping both has put them way behind the eight ball. It’s going to be tough to make it from here, with four of their remaining five games against the three hottest squads in the league.”

Their Run Home:
Brisbane Bullets (9^th) – Away
Melbourne United (6^th) – Away
Cairns Taipans (2^nd) – Home
Sydney Kings (1^st) – Home
Melbourne United (6^th) - Away

Position – Ninth
Record – 6-17
Win Percentage – 26.09
Points Percentage – 89.86

If the Bullets want to ruin as many seasons as possible, they might have got off to a flying start against South East Melbourne in Round 15.

Since their monster loss to Sydney last week the Bullets have looked a different side. They pushed Melbourne all the way before defeating the Phoenix, and they’re likely to have taken a massive amount of confidence out of the drought-breaking win.

While they’re mathematically out of the finals equation, don’t expect the Bullets to sit on their hands and let other sides walk all over them. There are guys who still have the rest of the season to play for a contract. Expect them to keep playing hard until the end.

Liam Santamaria says: “There will be a pep in Brisbane’s step after that win over the Phoenix so hopefully they can grab another couple of scalps over the next three weeks. Of course, their most important clash is this Saturday against the Hawks. There’ll be plenty of pride on the line in that one.”

Their Run Home:
Adelaide (8^th) – Home
Illawarra (10^th) – Away
New Zealand (3^rd) – Home
Cairns (2^nd) – Away
New Zealand (3^rd) - Home

Position – Tenth
Record – 2-21
Win Percentage – 8.7
Points Percentage – 87.98

The Hawks have been well-removed from all post-season calculations for some time now. That being said, you can’t fault the effort they’ve been putting into each and every game.

There are plenty of positives the Hawks can take out of their recent run of losses. They’re pushing teams well above them on the ladder all the way and even getting into winning positions. The big negative though? They can’t hold onto those winning positions for love nor life.

The near constant season-ending injuries have seen the Hawks become the hard luck story of the season, but don’t expect them to look for sympathy – or for the opposition to give it.

Liam Santamaria says: “You’ve got to be impressed by the way the Hawks are fighting out this season. The respect they’ve shown for each other and their fans – and most importantly, the game – by staying together and competing, despite all the adversity they’ve faced, has been tremendous. Here’s hoping they can grab another win before the season comes to a close.”

Their Run Home:
New Zealand (3^rd) – Away
Brisbane (9^th) – Home
Perth (5^th) – Home
New Zealand (3^rd) – Home
Tasmania (4^th) - Home