R9 Preview: New Zealand Breakers v Cairns Taipans

When: 5pm (AEDT), Wednesday 10 March

Where: John Cain Arena, Melbourne

Broadcast: ESPN; Sky Sports NZ; SBS On Demand; Twitch

The last time
Cairns 84 (Deng 21, Noi 18, Machado 13) d New Zealand 69 (T Webster 13, Delany 11, Loe 10), Round 4, Cairns Pop-up Arena

This was the second in a Round 4 double at the Snag Pit, and after Cairns gifted the Breakers their opening meeting down the stretch, they put on a defensive masterclass in the return bout, holding the Webster brothers to 8-of-26 shooting and just 4 assists between them. Scott Machado dished 13 dimes as his supporting cast had the balls to knock down open looks, Majok Deng, Kouat Noi and Jordan Ngatai going a combined 8-of-17 from range.

The now
Is it fair to say Cairns are like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re going to get next? Last Thursday they put 96 points on the Kings – who rank second in the NBL in defensive rating – in an outstanding win, then two nights later score a paltry 71 against an Adelaide side missing their chief rim protector. Their best is good enough to trouble any team in the competition, but at 4-10 it’s time to win or start planning an early off-season, and with Cam Oliver struggling there is immense pressure on their role players to deliver.

The one blessing of New Zealand’s early-season run is they’ve only played 10 games thus far, the fewest in the league and three less than Illawarra, Brisbane, Sydney and the Phoenix. Had they been able to eke a win over United last Friday the Breakers would be just 1.5 games off fourth place, but a loss to Cairns would leave them facing a potentially season-defining stretch against Perth, SE Melbourne and the Bullets over the next 10 days. Their offence is clicking though, and the Webster brothers are almost impossible to stop.

The stats

 - In their past three games, the Breakers have averaged 95.7ppg at 53 per cent from the field and 63 per cent from two-point range. Prior to that they were scoring just 80.1 per game at 41 per cent from the field.

 - The Webster brothers have contributed 48 points and 8.7 assists per night in those past three games, shooting at 54 per cent from the field

 - In Taipans wins, Cam Oliver is averaging 11.3ppg, compared to 18.6ppg in losses

 - Scott Machado is nailing 3.8 three-pointers in Cairns wins, compared to 2 triples in defeats


The key men

Tom Abercrombie – Coach Dan Shamir has shown a tendency to use the Breakers skipper’s length to curtail dangerous opposition guards. Abers was particularly effective on Nathan Sobey last round – helping hold the superstar to a 6-of-17 shooting night – and given Machado has controlled proceedings and amassed 38 points and 26 assists in his two meetings with NZ, if the championship veteran can curtail his influence it could be a match-winning performance.

Cam Oliver – Every fan of the NBL loves the Cam Oliver show, but anyone watching Oliver’s body language of late – and seen his combined production of just 20 points and 11 boards in the past two games – would have to be concerned for Cairns. His lack of defensive effort in particular is hurting his team, but the positive is he had similarly poor moments to start NBL20 before turning his season around, and Taipans fans will be praying for a case of déjà vu beginning on Wednesday.



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="fr" dir="ltr">Cam Oliver with his dunking protégé ? <a href="https://t.co/T4t46qg7F4">pic.twitter.com/T4t46qg7F4</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1368114146798018561?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 6, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
The quotes

Breakers coach Dan Shamir doesn’t mind being open and honest in a press conference, and it sounds like a documentary about his team’s Australia-bound season would be quite intriguing.

Asked about the sudden shift from struggling cellar-dwellers to a team that annihilated Adelaide, dodged the red-hot Bullets and ran ladder leaders Melbourne to the line, he chuckled and answered the best he could.

“I think it’s another TV show to answer the difference between two weeks ago, I’ll try to give you a few bullets,” he said.

“First of all you get better with the games, and there is no other way. It took us a long time to get those games, you come after almost 11 months without playing, a lot of players are out of shape, it takes time to get into rhythm. We were in a unique situation we couldn’t bring a lot of players to New Zealand, so these things take time.

“Second thing, I think we had to face the difficulties, we were facing tough circumstances, not an excuse, but I knew we were going to have to face tough circumstances and overcome it.

“The beginning was a little bit tougher than we feel right now, I think everybody is feeling a little bit better about our overall situation, and that translates to the court.

“There are a lot of things we can do more, definitely, we have a lot of work, we are just at the beginning of the process for us. We have more players that can contribute and have a role and give us something.”

Reading between the lines, however, that sounds like a case of addition by subtraction.


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Said it once and we&#39;ll say it again<br><br>0?9? <a href="https://t.co/FPgHXMA5CD">pic.twitter.com/FPgHXMA5CD</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1367780225245798400?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 5, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


Like last season, when Corey Webster’s departure clarified the team’s roles by handing the keys to Scotty Hopson and Sek Henry, so this year Lamar Patterson’s absence has made the offensive picture clearer.

“Every team has a story, and right now our story, and it’s not a secret, I think it’s an interesting story having Tai and Corey playing together at a high level,” Shamir said.

“This is the main thing that happens, they are playing well together and I don’t have to interfere too much, they have good chemistry … they will have to take the team on their shoulders and get us to where we want to be.”

They're doing that, as the Breakers’ remarkable offensive turnaround over the past three games has shown, all driven by their dynamic duo and a group of disciplined role players.

Of course, subtraction doesn’t work for every team, and Taipans coach Mike Kelly finally addressed the elephant in the room – the loss of DJ Newbill – when asked about the immense pressure Scott Machado faces each night.

“They were aggressive with Scott and we were slow to react offensively and just couldn’t get it going,” coach Kelly said after the Round 8 loss to Adelaide.


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Machado putting the team on his shoulders ? <a href="https://t.co/fph1vB3M9V">pic.twitter.com/fph1vB3M9V</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1368104745647239173?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 6, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


“Mostly Scott has reacted very well to it, and either attacked defensive aggression and turned it in his favour and our favour, or gotten rid of the ball quickly and got it to teammates.

“I think it’s similar to the attention he got in the second half of last year, maybe DJ Newbill was there last year to diffuse some of it, but mostly we’ve depended on Scott being great, and he’s been great, and tonight the load was too big.

“We’re a different team so we’re trying to do it different ways, last game it was Fab (Krslovic) and Nate (Jawai) especially down low and inside.

“We had some of those touches down there tonight and we had some attacks on the rim that were good, then we had other looks for Mojave (King) and Kouat (Noi) and Mirko (Djeric) and Jordan Ngatai, and we depend on those guys to make shots and we didn’t knock them down consistently as a group tonight.”