R7 Preview: Brisbane Bullets vs SE Melbourne Phoenix

When: 5.30pm (AEDT), Saturday 15 January 2022

Where: Nissan Arena, Brisbane

Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Sky Sports NZ


Who won last time?
Brisbane 94 (Patterson 19, Sobey 16, Drmic 16) d South East Melbourne 84 (Creek 17, Broekhoff 14, Sykes 13) - Round 21, 2021 at Nisssan Arena

The Phoenix had clinched a playoff berth earlier in the final round, and apart from a second-quarter burst, they rarely had control of this contest, Brisbane finishing their season with a W thanks to five players in double figures, led by Nathan Sobey and Lamar Patterson in what was a farewell for coach Andrej Lemanis.


What happened last start?

The Bullets couldn’t get control at all last week as a desperate Breakers hit them hard early with a series of Yanni Wetzell rim attacks, and closed them out late via Jeremiah Martin. In between, Brisbane’s sloppiness with the ball gave New Zealand plenty of fuel to maintain the fire.

South East Melbourne’s last start came way back on December 18 when they crashed to Sydney. After their humiliation in Melbourne, the Kings simply played at a higher level of intensity, and the Phoenix must find a spark after 28 days sidelined to match a scorned Brisbane side.


Who’s in form?

Anthony Drmic – After scoring just 10 points in his opening four games on 4/20 shooting, Drmic found his mojo against New Zealand with 14 points on 6/9, his off-ball movement superb. The Bullets need that extra offensive threat, and they’ll need his D on Saturday to help stymy Xavier Munford, who averages 20 points in wins but had just 8 in South East Melbourne’s loss to Sydney.

Zhou Qi – His past two games have delivered 39 points on 16/22, 23 rebounds, 12 blocks and nine o-boards, highlighting his teammates’ growing understanding of his game. This week’s challenge comes from Tyrell Harrison, who at 216cm matches Zhou’s height and will force adjustments at the rim. Look for Munford and Co to punish his drops defence with pull-ups.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">.<a href="https://twitter.com/officialzhouqi?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@officialzhouqi</a> cleans up ?? <a href="https://t.co/3NDWzxEK6b">pic.twitter.com/3NDWzxEK6b</a></p>&mdash; South East Melbourne Phoenix (@SEMelbPhoenix) <a href="https://twitter.com/SEMelbPhoenix/status/1472110354826027008?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 18, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who needs to be?

Nathan Sobey – No doubt Sobes brings a lot, but his 10/41 from range so far this season won’t deliver a playoff berth. The past two games, Sobey has shot 7/10 from two-point range and 11/13 from the foul line while dishing 12 dimes, and his penetration, finishing and decision making against Qi’s shot-blocking will be crucial. A few triples won’t hurt either.

Ryan Broekhoff – Rowdy is facing similar issues, hitting just 3/15 from range thus far. While that part of his game will be crucial for any Phoenix title run, this week perhaps his most important job is defending Lamar Patterson. When Lamarvellous shoots 45 per cent or better for Brisbane their record is 24-11, compared to 13-26 on his less efficient nights.


Who’s statting up?

 - The Phoenix scored just 26 points in the paint in their Round 3 loss to Sydney and were -16 in that category. In their three wins they averaged 47.3 PIPs and were +15.3 per game

 - South East Melbourne’s bench scored 9 points at 13 per cent from range against the Kings – all from Kyle Adnam – compared to 23.8 at 38 per cent from deep in their opening three games

 - Brisbane gave up 70 points on ‘ones and twos’ to New Zealand, who had averaged just 54.2 from inside the arc in their opening six games

 - The Bullets’ defence  allowed Jeremiah Martin and Yanni Wetzell to score New Zealand’s opening 14 points of the final term last Sunday, all from inside the paint


Who’s matching up?

Robert Franks v Mitch Creek – It seems like Franks grows in confidence with every outing. Even on a quieter game against New Zealand, his pair of stroll-up threes kept the Bullets in the game. The versatile American is 11/24 from range in the past three games, but is also averaging a whopping 3.8 o-boards, a combination that will keep Creek occupied.

Mitch has made 12/20 from distance in his past three games, and he is probably the biggest challenge Franks has faced to date, especially with his ability to make quality drive-or-shoot decisions on the move. Creek is just 8/21 from two-point range the past two games, and a return to his usual conversion rate will force the D to collapse and open up South East Melbourne’s shooters.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Robert Franks x <a href="https://twitter.com/AnthonyDrmic?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@AnthonyDrmic</a> for <a href="https://twitter.com/rorkprojects?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@rorkprojects</a> Play of the Game<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL22?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL22</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BRISBANEBULLETS?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BRISBANEBULLETS</a> <a href="https://t.co/capk46MHOQ">pic.twitter.com/capk46MHOQ</a></p>&mdash; Brisbane Bullets (@BrisbaneBullets) <a href="https://twitter.com/BrisbaneBullets/status/1480413583015960582?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 10, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s talking the talk?

Let’s talk intensity. Once the defensive whipping boys of the competition, the Phoenix showed some serious spine at the end of NBL21, and picked up where they left off in the new season.

With low-scoring, physical battles the name of the game in NBL22, Simon Mitchell’s men had been on the front foot, allowing just 41 per cent shooting, forcing 15.2 turnovers and grabbing 70 per cent of their d-boards.

But come their last game in Sydney, way back before Christmas, and it was the Kings who were landing all the blows.

“I thought we were pretty poor to be honest. The obvious thing was we shot the ball poorly, finished around the rim poorly, but they weren’t really the indicators that we pride ourselves on,” coach Mitchell said.

“What I was disappointed in was probably it seemed like we were manhandled, they were harder at the ball, I didn’t like us giving up so many offensive boards, which is a key for us.

“It was a real key focus for us going into the game to make sure we looked after the ball and we kept them off the boards.

“We figured after what happened to them in Melbourne, they’re going to come back pretty hard.”

Once figuratively punched in the face, the Phoenix became tentative offensively, with even the red-hot Creek passing up open looks before regaining his mojo later.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The 3&#39;s are coming (finally) by Izayah and Creeky ? <a href="https://t.co/VvMUH4p0vD">pic.twitter.com/VvMUH4p0vD</a></p>&mdash; South East Melbourne Phoenix (@SEMelbPhoenix) <a href="https://twitter.com/SEMelbPhoenix/status/1472116363539795971?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 18, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

They’d better be ready for a similar response from Brisbane, who produced their worst performance of the season against New Zealand coming off a long COVID-induced layoff.

“We need to be better in the first quarter and not put ourselves in a hole like that,” coach James Duncan said.

“For sure a little bit frustrating from where we came from 21 days ago to now.”

The game seemed almost lost when the Bullets trailed by 15 in the shadows of half-time, after coughing up 11 turnovers in the opening 17 minutes.

“We just seemed flat, we didn’t really seem like we had a rhythm for the game, we had 20 turnovers and it’s hard to win any game when you turn the ball over 20 times,” Duncan said.

“So we’re not making any excuses, we prepared the best we can and we had opportunities to win the game but execution-wise throughout the course of the game we just didn’t have it.”

Duncan will be looking in the mirror after he allowed the Jeremiah Martin and Yanni Wetzell to own the fourth quarter without any effective adjustments to disrupt supply, double-team the ball or clog driving lanes.

That pair scored New Zealand’s first 14 points of the final term, then Martin assisted Will McDowell-White for the next triple, Brisbane’s defence failing to make someone else beat them.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Layby J-Mart ?<br><br>Smooth euro finish by Jeremiah Martin.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL22?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL22</a> live on 10 Peach + Kayo Freebies <a href="https://t.co/Ed1XluEhT0">pic.twitter.com/Ed1XluEhT0</a></p>&mdash; The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1480055899523731457?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 9, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

South East Melbourne, who like the Breakers are expert at running action leading into their high ball-screens, will have noticed that lack of change-up and will test whether adjustments have been made in the meantime.

While that may give them an edge late, the challenge for the Phoenix is staying close after not playing for four weeks, something coach Mitchell is well aware of.

“Watching Brisbane (against NZ) certainly teams that have had a bit of a lay-off there’s going to be some sort of rust getting your momentum back and that’s going to be an issue for us,” he said.

“We've had guys come back into the fold, not all at once, we've had to bring everyone along each time so our sessions haven't been too much up and down the floor, we haven't had the numbers to get up and down.

“There’s going to be some issues for us getting our momentum and getting our legs under us, but we’re confident we can overcome that with depth.”

One player who hasn’t been disrupted is star guard Xavier Munford, who avoided isolation and has been spending serious time getting ready to make up for his poor night in Sydney.

The battles between Munford and Sobey, Broekhoff and Patterson and Creek and Franks will be worth the price of admission alone.

“I'm just using this time with the extra break to sharpen up, reading the plays and getting more familiar with the guys,” Munford said.

“They're good a nice little squad, they’ve got some tough guards in Sobey and Lamar Patterson who is versatile, I'm looking forward to getting out there and competing.”