Preview: Tasmania v New Zealand (Round 7)

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Friday 18 November, 2022

Where: Silverdome, Launceston

Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ

Who won the last time?

New Zealand 94 (Brown 24, Pardon 15, McDowell-White 13) d Tasmania 62 (Doyle 22, McVeigh 11) – Round 5 at Spark Arena

When New Zealand led 46-43 with just over four minutes remaining in the third term, this looked like being yet another ultra-tight, low-scoring ‘island clash’, but from there the Breakers manhandled Tasmania defensively and behind Barry Brown got rolling from the three-point line to inflict the biggest loss in JackJumpers history.

What happened last game?

That defensive starch was missing early for New Zealand against the reigning champs, Sydney racing to a 22-point lead as Xavier Cooks put on a clinic. But with X sidelined in the second half the Breakers refused to quit and were almost in a position to challenge late in the fourth term. Tassie challenged late against Brisbane, Jack McVeigh with the chance to tie it at the death, but they weren’t their usual disciplined selves, spending much of the game complaining to the officials. JJ fans will be hoping for a return to business as usual after the FIBA break.

What’s working?

Armed and dangerous – Brisbane got what they wanted offensively in the first half, and the JJ’s were fired up coming out of the sheds, initiating defensive arm contact on the ball-handler 29 times in the third term and 46 in the second half as they held the Bullets to 28 points and forced 14 turnovers. It’s a part of the FIBA rulebook Scott Roth recognised is rarely enforced in Australia, and when the JJs exploit it as a unit they are hard to score against.

Lane raids – The Breakers went to the foul line a whopping 52 times in their past two contests, after averaging just 17.6 across the opening seven games. Imports Barry Brown, Dererk Pardon and Jarell Brantley account for 58 per cent of their charity shots and combined for 23 of 30 attempts against Sydney. New Zealand now average 19.4 FTA on the season, compared to the last-ranked JackJumpers who get to the stripe just 14 times.

What needs stopping?

One-track offence – Tasmania were -31 on scoring from ‘ones and twos’ in their past two losses – going -70 across five defeats this season, compared to break-even in wins – and given they have made just 7/27 and 7/33 from outside at a combined 23 per cent in two games against New Zealand, they need to find a way to get some cheap paint points. In losses, the JJs are landing 9.4 treys at 31 per cent, compared to 13.8 at 39 per cent in Ws.

Ball movement – During the Breakers’ 44-10 second-half run against Tassie in Round 5, they allowed just 2.7 passes per half-court set as they bodied up cutters, switched proactively and jumped out into passing lanes.  The result was Tasmania playing one-on-one from the top of the arc, shooting 2/16 and committing six turnovers in that 12-minute stretch. Can New Zealand repeat that physicality with a rabid Launceston crowd providing some serious noise of affirmation?

Who’s matching up?

Josh Magette v Izayah Le’afa – Jet was more like a paper plane in Auckland last time, with just seven points on 2/9 shooting and one dime. That defensive effort was led by Rayan Rupert, who is now sadly sidelined with a broken wrist. Can Le’afa fill that gap to block the straw that stirs Tassie’s drink? And will Tom Abercrombie also hound Magette? If the Tassie PG can get the ball out of hard shows to the short roller, the JJ’s outside game will open up.

Jack McVeigh v Jarell Brantley – McTrey is heating up, averaging 16.8ppg on 11/23 outside shooting his past four games. He’s been solid against New Zealand despite his team’s struggles, averaging 15ppg at 46 per cent, but has made just 2/8 from deep. Can the JackJumpers execute more pick-and-pop when NZ shuts down their ball movement to get McVeigh involved? And can Brantley exploit his strength advantage as he did in Round 2, when he scored 13 of his 19 points when Rashard Kelly was on the bench.

Barry Brown v Sam McDaniel – Brown’s past four games have delivered 23ppg at 56 per cent and 10/23 from deep. He tortured Tasmania last time with 24 points on 5/5 inside the paint and 4/5 outside the arc as he punished every defensive front the JackJumpers tried. McDaniel only played 15 minutes that day, his second game on return from injury, but he stood tall in the second half against Brisbane, and will need to from tip-off with Matt Kenyon out.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">That&#39;s how you end a half! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNBREAKABLE?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNBREAKABLE</a> <a href="https://t.co/C37jutRFUj">pic.twitter.com/C37jutRFUj</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1586568717290606592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 30, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

After scoring just 63.5ppg at 35 per cent in two games against New Zealand, the Tasmania JackJumpers now know exactly what awaits them on Friday night in Launceston.

“I’ve learnt that my scout hasn’t been that good on them, I’m 0-2 against them this year,” associate head coach Jacob Chance said.

“I still think they're the best team in the comp right now.  Their physicality is off the charts and they do a really good job of pushing you out of your spots, so we tried to replicate that this week, but it’s always hard.”

Chance is probably being coy, because the reality is Mody Maor and New Zealand have emulated the JackJumpers’ physicality as they look to build something new from the ashes of two horror COVID-impacted seasons.

Chances are both Breakers and Tassie training sessions look very similar, with a huge focus on physicality and the fundamentals of team defence, all built around the pillar of outworking your opponent on every possession.

“You always want to win the effort war and that’s why they're second on the ladder,” Chance said.

“They’ve got multiple guys that bring it and we have to make sure we win our individual match-ups, but collectively it’s the things we can control.

“Can you get on the glass and can you look after the effort stuff and if we can do that we’ll put ourselves in a good spot to win the game.”

The Breakers and JackJumpers dominate the NBL’s effort areas, ranking second and third respectively in offensive rebounding percentage.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Dererk Pardon brought the fizz last night! <br><br>He finished with a double double <br><br>15pts &amp; 14reb <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/workrate?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#workrate</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNBREAKABLE?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNBREAKABLE</a> <a href="https://t.co/KZaZWmy1ke">pic.twitter.com/KZaZWmy1ke</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1586900770087178240?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 31, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Tasmania force the second most turnovers in the competition and rank first in defensive rebounding, while New Zealand are number one for defensive field-goal percentage.

Yet while that constant effort was the JJ’s undoubted trademark last season, it has been a little up-and-down in NBL23.

They wilted under the Breakers’ physicality in Round 5, capitulating for just the third time in their 44-game history, while they didn’t bring the workrate early last round against Brisbane.

“They were a little Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde kind of halves there but we held them to 28 in the second half and got back to what we need to be doing,” coach Scott Roth said.

“When you're playing defence at times and the ball's not going in, you can lose track of just continuing to defend and I think that happened to us, and we got a little anxious with some open shots that missed.”

They haven’t made many shots at all against New Zealand, open or contested, and Roth is delighted to have captain and sharpshooter Clint Steindl finally back into the line-up.

“It’s great to have Clint back, he’s moving well and his inclusion has really lifted the group this week,” Roth said.

“He’ll likely be on a lighter playing load but we’ll see how he goes in shoot around and with the flow of the game.”

The other big inclusion is centre Will Magnay for his first game since February, but the good news is tempered by the absence of Milton Doyle, Jarrad Weeks and Matt Kenyon.

Doyle was the only JackJumper to break the Breakers’ shackles in Round 5 with 22 points at 50 per cent, Weeks has been the team’s leading three-point marksman, while Kenyon is the heart and soul of their defence, meaning every other JJ will need to stand up at both ends.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Block O’clock AWST ?? <a href="https://twitter.com/MDLU35?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@MDLU35</a> <br><br>Watch live now on <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> via <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> &amp; <a href="https://twitter.com/Foxtel?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Foxtel</a> <a href="https://t.co/fabsP7nF7e">pic.twitter.com/fabsP7nF7e</a></p>&mdash; Tasmania JackJumpers ? (@JackJumpers) <a href="https://twitter.com/JackJumpers/status/1588122680439762944?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 3, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

New Zealand failed to show up in their blow-out home loss to SE Melbourne, and the same occurred in the first half last round against Sydney, but their late fightback left coach Maor unconcerned.

“I don't have concerns, concerns is when you think something is wrong. What we saw today is the normal progress for a young team,” Maor said.

“When you go and play against the defending champions, sometimes they play better than you. In the process of us coming together as a unit and bringing in young and new players, we never expected this to be linear. 

“That's not how progress looks like. It's a good lesson for us, and it's something we learn from and get better from.”

For relentless import centre Dererk Pardon, who brutalized Tassie’s interior in Round 5 for 15 points and 14 rebounds, including six o-boards, the ability to respond to a poor start against the Kings only reaffirmed his belief.

“That shows what we’re capable of,” he said.

“We knew that before the game, we knew that during the game, and after we walked away knowing we need to bring that type of fight in the second half for 40 minutes.”

That’s what they’ll have to do against a proud JackJumper team desperate to avoid three-straight beatdowns from their NBL22 bunnies.

“It’s a big week, man,” he told Stuff media.

“First and foremost we have to take care of Tasmania. They’re a hard-nosed team, we’ve played them twice already and they’re going to come with adjustments, so we have to as well. We have to be ready for the challenge.”