Preview: Tasmania v Cairns (Round 11)

When: 5.30pm (AEDT), Saturday 17 December 2022

Where: MyState Bank Arena, Hobart

Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ

Who won last time?

Cairns 106 (Deng 26, Hogg 17, Kuol 17) d Tasmania 84 (Kelly 15, Doyle 13, Krslovic 13) – Round 1 at MyState Bank Arena, Hobart

Tasmania led their home opener by 11 midway through the second term before a Majok Deng triple sparked a ridiculous 63-32 Snakes run over the next 16 minutes as the visitors silenced the sold-out MyState Bank Arena crowd. Deng finished with 26 points on 9/11 as Cairns shot 62 per cent inside, 41 per cent outside and 26/32 from the foul line.

What happened last game?

The JackJumpers locked down the arc in Sydney last round, holding the Kings to 3/16 and then giving up only six points in the final term as Jack McVeigh and Milton Doyle shot them back from a 14-point deficit for their first-ever win in Sydney. The Taipans faced the bottom two in Cairns the past two games and scraped their way out with two wins, Tahjere McCall’s energy the difference maker, going +19 while his team was -9 in his 23 minutes of rest.

What’s working?

Digging deep – It’s no coincidence Cairns found a way to win those games, Adam Forde’s men now 7-3 in contests decided by single figures as their coach pumps them full of self-belief. However, the Snakes are 0-5 and -30 in fourth quarters of their losses, and given Tasmania are +41 in their past three fourth terms – allowing just 11 points per 10 minutes – if it’s close at the last break then Cairns’ offensive weapons will have to stand tall.

Getting inside – Coach Forde said three games ago his team needed a better balance – after leading the league in three-point attempts but struggling to connect – and they listened, the past two games seeing 93 two-pointers, 55 triples and 50 free throws. The Taipans had a +25 free-throw differential in those games, after being +27 in total across their opening 11 games. Tasmania shoot the fewest free throws in the NBL (15.6) while Cairns give up the second fewest (17.4) setting up an area of advantage for the Snakes to set up their D.

What needs to be stopped?

Milton Doyle – It’s easy to set up your D when the ball goes through the net, which is happening more often than not when Doyle shoots it right now. His past three games have delivered 27ppg at 57 per cent from the field, 12/25 from deep and an impressive 10/16 on two-point pull-ups. The relentless Bul Kuol is likely to get this job, and while flopping isn’t Doyle’s style, selling an early call to get Kuol’s hands off could be important to create space.

Transition triples – With four minutes remaining in the second quarter in Hobart in Round 1, the Snakes trailed by four points. Over the next 14 minutes they trained six triples in transition or early offence as they peeled off a 52-28 run. They were at it again on Wednesday, their opening three scores against Brisbane coming from open-court threes. The Snakes’ speed and spacing in transition is outstanding, and all five JackJumpers must be ready to stop the ball early, allowing the help to stay close to the  in-flow shooters.

Who’s matching up?

Jack McVeigh v DJ Hogg – Jack was crook last Sunday and having a howler, but he produced a hell of a ‘flu quarter’ with three huge triples in the final five minutes delivering victory over the Kings. Sam Waardenburg’s absence means Hogg will likely spend more time at the four-spot, and while McVeigh is sure to see whether he defend the block, DJ’s ability to handle the rock and score inside and out will challenge Jack’s D at the other end.

Will Magnay v Keanu Pinder – Magnay played a season-high 21 minutes in Sydney and grabbed six d-boards in a good sign of his improving conditioning. Given Pinder’s dominance this season finishing athletically at the rim – averaging almost 17ppg from the paint or free-throw line – the ability for big Will to stay between KP and the basket and contest without fouling will be crucial, especially if he can extend to 25 minutes on the floor.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Pinder putting the hammer DOWN ??<br><br>Watch LIVE on ESPN ? <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/OrangeArmy?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#OrangeArmy</a> <a href="https://t.co/kf7RMrl3hb">pic.twitter.com/kf7RMrl3hb</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1598600172572811264?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 2, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

While the Cairns Taipans bettered Brisbane on Wednesday to move to 9-5 and back within striking distance of the top two, coach Adam Forde was certainly not content.

Interestingly, for a coach who has earned much respect for instilling belief in his young group, his first act post-game was one of self-reflection on how he can get the best from his team.

“It’s on me to be better and coach these guys the way I feel like they’re going to thrive in. There’s moments on the floor where we impact body language, I play a role in that,” he said.

“I need to be better, because if I'm constantly beating someone down and taking withdrawals from them and not placing deposits, then we’re at the foul line and we’re up 10 and I can see the guys’ body language is concerning, and that’s on me.

“I’ll review myself more than anything out of this game.”

There’s no doubt Forde cut a frustrated figure on Wednesday night as the determined Bullets made things a grind, and again showed a key area where the Snakes are yet to click.

“That’s the most frustrated I've felt this season. I feel like that’s the last hurdle for us to overcome … execution at the offensive end. We have glimpses of it,” Forde said.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Throw it to Tahjere, he&#39;ll handle the rest! ?<br><br>Watch LIVE on ESPN ? <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/OrangeArmy?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#OrangeArmy</a> <a href="https://t.co/HWM2HVKYhk">pic.twitter.com/HWM2HVKYhk</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1602969019920748545?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 14, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“We've got the number one defence in the league right now … but we've got the second-worst offence, and that’s really starting to frustrate me, really starting to annoy me.

“It’s nothing to do with the personnel, because we’re capable, it’s trying to get key guys into particular positions. I want to be further down the track than what we are.

“The good thing is we've for a string of games coming up that’s going to help us build a bit of momentum rolling through.

“I'm also conscious of the fact we've got nine wins, and I don’t want to be beating on the guys in the sense of creating negative energy.

“I’ll take a day to process it, we’ll do a review before we fly to Tassie, but it’s a great prospect to know that this area of improvement that we have to achieve, right now we’re a work in progress that’s sitting third on the ladder, and that’s pretty cool.”

They won’t be third on the ladder for long if they can’t execute against the JackJumpers, who sit just one game behind.

While in Round 1 in Hobart the Taipans ran Tasmania off their feet, Scott Roth’s men are a different proposition 10 weeks later, as they showed in their epic win in Sydney.

“Just relentless,” Roth said post-game.

“It wasn’t pretty, they had some break-out moments there where we just missed assignments, but it was a gritty effort in the fourth quarter …

“Our entire group just fought like heck, and to hold this team at this level to six points in the fourth quarter is a great credit to my group.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BIG moment from Milton Doyle in the 4th <a href="https://t.co/JCWHYnsm3p">pic.twitter.com/JCWHYnsm3p</a></p>&mdash; Tasmania JackJumpers ? (@JackJumpers) <a href="https://twitter.com/JackJumpers/status/1601832972097064960?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 11, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

While the defence was gritty, the offence was spectacular as Milton Doyle continued to show he belongs in the upper echelons of the Hungry Jack’s NBL talent table.

“This guy’s been playing phenomenal,” Roth said.

“It’s the comfort level of playing with our guys, finding his niches where he can score and we can get him the ball in certain areas that are beneficial to him.

“Having Magnay on the floor has been helpful to him having a big target and McVeigh spacing the floor, they're gelling.”

That sets up a brilliant battle between Doyle and Bul Kuol. While coach Forde might be tempted to use Kuol’s length to disrupt Josh Magette, Milt’s recent hot run surely makes him target number one.

Kuol was on target offensively against Brisbane too, dropping 4/5 triples and 5/5 free throws en route to 23 points and a game-high +12.

“He was electric, he was defensive, his offensive game was flowing, he was playmaking, he was attacking the rim and finding his teammates,” Forde said.

“When you look at the top five for steals in the (league), Tahj is number one, DJ is number three and Shannon is number four, so unfortunately Bul doesn’t always get the recognition for what he does on the defensive end.

“He’s by far my (best) pit bull out there and he does it weekly with everybody, and people who are MVP contenders are having an off night coincidently when he’s defending them.”