Preview: Sydney vs New Zealand - Play-In Qualifier, NBL24

Monday, February 26, 2024

Who can continue their Finals dream in a rematch of last season's Championship Series?

Wednesday, February 28 at 7:30pm AEDT | Qudos Bank Arena

Watch: Live on ESPN via Kayo | Sky Sport in NZ - International viewership details
Box scores: Download the free NBL App
Tickets: Click here

Sydney
Sydney head coach Mahmoud Abdelfattah has says he’s not feeling any pressure ahead of his team’s do-or-die Play-In Qualifier with New Zealand. Abdelfattah cited his eyes are on winning the championship, as opposed to one individual game within a Finals run.

Import guard Denzel Valentine admitted that the side did not meet expectations in the regular season, and as a result has a chip on its shoulder to prove their quality.

Next Star Alex Toohey has said although his form has dropped in the latter half of NBL24, he believes enduring the highs and lows of this season so far will help set him up for a successful career. Toohey has since been listed as the potential 48th pick in ESPN’s 2025 Mock Draft.

Club captain and two-time champion Shaun Bruce asserted his confidence in his side, and cited the Kings’ knack for locking in on big games during the season as a key reason as to why he believes in Sydney’s chances of beating New Zealand.

The Kings’ 55-point victory over South East Melbourne to secure post-season qualification is the biggest win in the NBL’s 40-minute era.

New Zealand
New Zealand head coach Mody Maor said people are “right” to write the Breakers off for Wednesday’s clash, and revealed he thought his side’s win over the Kings earlier in the season was “lucky”.

Maor also rubbished claims that there are any demons to exorcise from last season’s Championship Series loss, and said he sees last season's Championship Series defeat as a learning curve and a learning experience.

Breakers CEO Lisa Edser confirmed club captain Tom Abercrombie’s jersey will be retired by the club. Abercrombie has announced his decision to retire at the end of NBL24, after 16 years of representing the club.

If the Breakers lose this will be Tom Abercrombie’s final career NBL game.

Parker Jackson-Cartwright was named the Breakers’ club MVP, following his third-placed finish in the NBL MVP race and All-NBL First Team selection.

Sydney
122-67 win over South East Melbourne
95-106 loss to Illawarra
78-85 loss to Adelaide

New Zealand
70-76 loss to Adelaide
103-87 win over Brisbane
81-94 loss to Melbourne

Jaylen Adams
There have been plenty of questions asked of Jaylen Adams during Sydney’s indifferent run over the back half of NBL24, and although most of those have been centred around intangible aspects of his game like defensive effort, care factor and determination, there’s been zero doubting his quality.

There aren’t many players who have been named the MVP, and Adams is one of just three players not named Bryce Cotton to have won it since 2018. Incidentally the other two – Andrew Bogut and Xavier Cooks – also did so with the Sydney Kings.

Jaylen Adams is one of the most talented players we’ve seen in the NBL over the course of the 2020s, and you could probably extend that time period out even longer. He’s an offensive savant and seems to always know when to cut and slash or slow things down.

His numbers this season obviously haven’t been at the same level as his MVP season in NBL22, but they’re not as far off as you might think. He averaged 0.6 points, 2.0 rebounds and 0.8 assists more than this season in his regular season MVP campaign – however a marked difference is he shot almost 10 per cent better from three, two years ago.

There have been flashes and performances akin to the more efficient Jaylen Adams that played under Chase Buford, and it feels like he’s been ramping up towards the back end of the season. His likely two best performances of the campaign came in the Round 20 clash with the Phoenix (24 points, nine assists) and the Round 15 smashing of New Zealand (39 points).

Adams has already done it against the Breakers this season, but with the chances of Sydney’s three-peat hanging in the balance, can he do it again?

“The Sydney Kings at their best are extremely dangerous, led by Jaylen Adams. Hearing Jaylen Adams’ press conference where he said ‘it’s kind of up to me to get this thing rolling, to get it started’, uh oh. A consistent, an aggressive, a determined Jaylen Adams could be dangerous.” – Damon Lowery on NBL Now.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Jaylen Adams doing what Jaylen Adams does best ?<br><br>He’s got 10 first-quarter points. <br><br>Catch the action live on ESPN via Kayo ? <a href="https://t.co/UvYoqQlXfB">pic.twitter.com/UvYoqQlXfB</a></p>— NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1758751469098922200?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 17, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Parker Jackson-Cartwright
It could only be Parker Jackson-Cartwright, right? New Zealand’s diminutive import has just continued to go from strength to strength in NBL24, and that’s a trend that has followed him for his entire career.

Jackson-Cartwright’s career to date is filled with stepping up to challenges at a higher level, showcasing his immense talent, rinsing and repeating. In the space of just five years he’s gone from G-League reject, through England and the second division of France to German Bundesliga MVP glory, EuroLeague hoops and now the NBL.

With all that in mind, it feels like it’s almost an inevitability that the NBL24 MVP nominee will elevate once again in the face of adversity. Anthony Lamb is already confirmed to miss New Zealand’s entire Finals run. Will McDowell-White’s fitness status is murky at the time of writing. Someone needs to step up, and PJC looks like the obvious candidate.

This NBL season has shown while the era of the big guard is thriving in the NBA, there is still a place at the table for smaller, faster, technically sound combo guards like Jackson-Cartwright. He can run the point, he can run the two, and whether he’s playing the role of scorer or creator, he can put you to the sword.

“I think it’ll be fun, he’s a talented player and they’re a talented team but to beat them we need to lock into all five guys on the floor and lock into the scout as a collective unit.” – Jaylen Adams on Parker Jackson-Cartwright at the NBL Finals Launch.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Parker Jackson-Cartwright in Friday night's W:<br><br>?? 31 points (NBL career-high)<br>?? 7 assists<br>?? 2 steals<br>?? 62% FG<a href="https://twitter.com/unrulymino0?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@unrulymino0</a> was unstoppable ? <a href="https://t.co/W8CbC4nA4V">pic.twitter.com/W8CbC4nA4V</a></p>— NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1756465919449247954?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 10, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Denzel Valentine vs Mantas Rubstavicius
The battle between Denzel Valentine and Mantas Rubstavicius looms as an intriguing one, largely because both players are quite stylistically different, but there’s one key skill both players have that could turn the tide of the game. Their three-point shooting.

Rubstavicius started his season being played as a genuine small forward by Mody Maor, but as New Zealand’s injuries piled up and he found his niche, he’s often been shifted to the shooting guard position alongside Parker Jackson-Cartwright.

The Lithuanian Next Star experienced a hot run of form through the middle of the regular season, but he’s struggled to get his shot falling in recent outings. In fact, he’s made just two of his past 11 three-point attempts.

Where his shooting has faltered though, he’s found other ways to contribute. He’s started to rack up the rebounds and find ways to get to the free throw line more in order to still impact the scoreboard. But in that mid-season run of form, he went through a purple patch where he shot over 50 per cent from three across five games.

Valentine’s story of the seasons is similar, however his added age and top-level experience means he’s a more polished and well-rounded offensive contributor than Rubstavicius is at this early point in his career.

He’s in the top 20 of all-time three pointers made for the Chicago Bulls but, like Rubstavicius, he’s endured an up and down shooting season.

He hit just one of ten three-point attempts in Sydney’s Round 16 defeat to Perth, and two of 10 in the Round 18 loss to Adelaide, but he went five for six from the arc in Round 19 against Illawarra, and five for 10 in the Round 13 win over Cairns.

Where Rubstavicius turns to the one percenters and effort plays as his areas of impact when his shot isn’t falling, Valentine turns to passing the ball. He’s racked up some big assist numbers in NBL24 and has been one of the main triple-double threats on the season across the competition.

Both Valentine and Rubstavicius have the sharpshooting ability that, if they’re on a hot night, they can single-handedly decide a game, but they both have the tendency to be streaky, and they both can find other ways to contribute.

If one gets hot from three though it could go a long way to establishing a margin that could prove unassailable.

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Mantas Rubstavicius and Denzel Valentine.

Sydney has won seven of its last eight Finals games at Qudos Bank Arena. The only loss in that stretch came in Game 1 of last season’s Championship Series against the Breakers.