When: 6.30pm (AEDT), Sunday 25 December, 2022

Where: Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney

Broadcast: 10HD (Melbourne & Sydney); 10 Peach; 10 Play; ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ

Who won the last time?

Sydney 87 (Cooks 14, Soares 14, Hunter 12) d Melbourne 69 (Tucker 20, Goulding 14, Humphries 10) – Round 4 at John Cain Arena, Melbourne

United walked into this clash determined to atone for their Round 2 home embarrassment, when the Kings held them to a remarkable low of 23 points in the opening half. They started like a team on a mission, leading by 12 in the opening term and still in front in the middle stages of third, but their energy started to wane and Sydney’s class took over, finishing on a 45-24 run in the final 17 minutes as the United offence ran dry.

What happened last game?

Melbourne’s offence sizzled early against the Snakes, but struggled once Cairns hugged Chris Goulding and dared the rest of the roster to shoot, United managing just 40 points in the final 24 minutes. They found a way to win though, and moved to within 1.5 games of the top six. It’s been all about finding ways to win for Sydney, with eight of their past nine games decided by single figures. They were on the wrong end of a double-overtime classic with South East Melbourne last round, and must beat United to stay atop the NBL ladder.

What’s working?

Derrick Walton – There’s no questioning Walton’s scoring prowess, averaging 22.4ppg at 50 per cent in his past five games – including an unforgettable 45 on South East Melbourne – while shooting a near-perfect 22/24 from the foul line. Impressively, he’s also dealt 7.4 assists in that quintet of clashes, and that seems to be his key marker. The Kings are 4-0 when Walton scores in single figures and 3-3 when he hits more than 20. But when he drops seven or more dimes his team is 5-1, with the only loss being in double-overtime to the Phoenix.

Lockdown United – Melbourne’s defence has been brutal the past three games, giving up just 78ppg at 37 per cent, including a stingy six triples at 25 per cent. Their D needs to keep opponents to a low score, however, considering United are 0-8 when they score 83 points or less this season, but 9-3 when they reach 84. The Kings have averaged 89ppg in two match-ups, scoring 39 points from the arc in the first and 50 in the paint in the sequel.

What needs stopping?

Paint points – Xavier Cooks, Tim Soares and Jordy Hunter combined for 40 points in the key on 15/20 shooting (75%) in that second meeting as the Kings won points in the paint 50-26. There was no Marcus Lee or Mason Peatling in United blue back then, however, and that pair now have their team’s best two defensive ratings, with both capable of switching ball-screens and protecting the paint, combining for 12 blocks in the past three games.

Transition Tuck – Rayjon has averaged 20.5ppg in his past 10, and while his 46 per cent three-point shooting has been game-changing, United are 7-5 when he has seven or more boards, but 2-6 when he doesn’t. They're also 5-2 when he shoots six or more free throws, those two Ls against the Kings. When Tucker sparks transition off the glass, and forces opponents to play slow by getting o-boards or to the foul line, United are a better team. His athletic battle with Justin Simon will be the perfect Christmas pudding to finish off the day.

Who’s matching up?

DJ Vasiljevic v Chris Goulding – Bubbles has had his troubles against Sydney this season – scoring 10.5ppg on 3/13 from deep – and that’s because DJ has shut down the man whose Boomers spot he wants. Goulding’s nailed 4.2 triples at 40 per cent his past five games, but was blanketed by Mirko Djeric on Friday after a fast start. Can Vasiljevic spin the same defensive web? And can he remedy his 6/41 long-range woes from the past seven games?

Xavier Cooks v Mason Peatling – Cooks’ 18.5ppg at 60 per cent, 9.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists in two meetings with Melbourne reads impressively enough, but they don’t describe just how much he dominated those games. Peatling will lead the defensive charge, and while United showed a much-improved team approach to subdue Keanu Pinder on Friday, Cooks’ ability to turn opportunistic plays into points requires another level of defensive concentration.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">XAVIER COOKS OMG! ? <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL23?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL23</a> <a href="https://t.co/WeuInOTmeF">pic.twitter.com/WeuInOTmeF</a></p>&mdash; Telegraph Sport (@telegraph_sport) <a href="https://twitter.com/telegraph_sport/status/1578986125284495360?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 9, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Melbourne toppled the Taipans on Friday to move to 9-11 and within touch of the top six, but there’s still plenty to work on.

“Our best was great, our worst was punished,” coach Dean Vickerman said.

“I thought rebounding was an area we’re continuing to improve in, we’re getting second chance opportunities, but taking care of the basketball is still our kryptonite right now and we've just got to wipe five or six turnovers off.”

Before Friday, the reality was United beat the Breakers in their season-opener, but gone 0-4 against the top three since with an average losing margin of 16.8 points.

Overcoming the high-flying Taipans for the first time was a major step forward. Beating the Kings on Christmas Day would be too, and coach Vickerman thinks Friday night’s game has them well prepared.

“Sydney’s defence is going to be similar to what we saw tonight,” Vickerman said post-game.

“They're going to guard some people, they're going to play off some people, so how can we continue to get the effective shots we want.

“Tonight was a good step towards playing well against Sydney.”

After Chris Goulding exploded out of the blocks, the Snakes suffocated his supply, packed the paint and dared other Melbourne players to beat them from outside.

It might have pinched them a W if not for Rayjon Tucker’s 27 points, which came from a full gamut of fast-break scores, rim raids, catch-and-shoots and rhythm triples as he dropped 4/7 from deep.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">LID&#39;S OFF!!!!!!<br><br>(literally)<a href="https://twitter.com/th3flighttuck?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@th3flighttuck</a> <a href="https://t.co/poJqYU0HeY">pic.twitter.com/poJqYU0HeY</a></p>&mdash; Melbourne United (@MelbUnited) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnited/status/1606236918202585088?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 23, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“It was a game where we he needed him to make shots,” Vickerman said.

“We've seen last time we played them and Sydney, he probably wasn’t as aggressive as we wanted him to be, but he’s just super-confident right now shooting the basketball and he deserves to be, he’s put a whole lot of work in.”

The Kings will drop on ball-screens and dare Tucker to fire from midrange, or sky over their twin towers of Tim Soares and Jordi Hunter.

Another man who’s a key to exploiting that defence is Xavier Rathan-Mayes, who is one of the NBL’s best pull-up shooters when in sync.

However, he’s gone 0/11 from the field in his past two games, and managed just eight points on 3/15 shooting in two meetings with the Kings.

Despite those struggles, he’ll keep getting the green light from his coach.

“We really wanted him to come in and have an impact, he has his four assists and three steals, I thought he had a couple of really good looks, he’s been working so hard at his shot,” Vickerman said.

“There were some things in transition, maybe he can get to the rim a little bit more, get to the foul line, (but) I'm not too worried about X, I know it’s going to click soon.

“We trust him carrying the basketball, we trust him making decisions out of the on-ball, we trust him on defence, and we trust his shot, so he’s just got to keep backing himself.”

Sydney back themselves to win the paint battle against any team in the NBL, but Marcus Lee’s shot-blocking brings a new dimension to that contest, and has allowed United to finally play the defence that sets the likes of Tucker and Shea Ili free in transition.

“He’s tremendous, he gives us the confidence to really climb into guys,” Tucker said.

“Knowing that (Lee is) back there and we have that rim protection, we can play the style of basketball that we really want to play, make it hard on guys and not let anyone have anything easy.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="es" dir="ltr">Defense fueling offense! ??<a href="https://twitter.com/JustMarcusLee?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@JustMarcusLee</a> / <a href="https://twitter.com/shili___?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@shili___</a> <br><br>Tune in: ESPN via Kayo or Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/dr4FK26QxM">pic.twitter.com/dr4FK26QxM</a></p>&mdash; Melbourne United (@MelbUnited) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnited/status/1606229771066564609?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 23, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That’s the style Sydney want to play too, and it sets the scene for a high-speed battle on Christmas Day.

For the Kings to succeed at speed, however, they best have Xavier Cooks in uniform, and point man Shaun Bruce is hopeful his star’s troublesome ankle will be ok.

“I think he’s feeling pretty good,” Bruce said

“At this time of year, everyone’s dealing with little niggles and stuff. It just happened that he couldn’t get through Sunday’s game … he’s a competitor and I’m sure he’s going to be ready to go.”

Regardless, after giving up 113 points in 50 minutes to the Phoenix, along with 54 points in the paint, 42 free-throw attempts and going -7 in the possession game, the Kings know their effort must lift a level to defeat United.

“We’ll go back and watch the tape and see a number of areas we wish we could have been better defensively, we weren’t great all night,” coach Chase Buford said in Traralgon.

“We’re trying to find that balance of playing fast and doing what we do well and also getting good shots and running some clock, obviously we haven't quite found the balance.”

While a win will keep Sydney in first place, a United triumph will put them within a game of the top six, and every win is crucial now the tennis is moving into Melbourne Park.

“We only have one home game left, so … we take confidence from what we did in Perth about putting ourselves in a position to win, we know we’ve got to execute better down the stretch, but there’s a belief growing in this team,” Vickerman said.

“We believe we’re good enough to beat anybody if we can just fix a few areas.”