Preview: Perth v Adelaide (Round 15)

Friday, January 13, 2023

The NBL's oldest rivalry finds a new stage as Perth and Adelaide battle for a place in the top six under the open roof at RAC Arena.

When: 8pm (AEDT), Saturday 14 January, 2023
Where: RAC Arena, Perth
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel, Sky NZ
LIVE SCORES & STATS

Who won last time?

Perth 98 (Cotton 32, Thomas 22, C Webster 22) d Adelaide 90 (McCarron 20, Franks 19, Cleveland 13) – Round 10 at Adelaide Entertainment Centre

Perth found form and a new starting five in New Zealand and brought that new-found execution to Adelaide, shooting 65 per cent on two-pointers, including 55 per cent from midrange, to run up 98 on the 36ers. Bryce Cotton, TaShawn Thomas and Corey Webster provided 76 of those, including 26 in the final term as the Wildcats pulled away late.

What happened last game?

Adelaide found themselves in another shoot-out in Hobart on Thursday and couldn’t keep up with Jack McVeigh and Co in the fourth quarter. It was their third loss to top four opposition in their past four games, leaving them outside the top six.

Perth can now move 1.5 games clear of their storied rival in Saturday’s open-air game, after they outworked the Breakers on Tuesday to pinch a come-from-behind victory. So tight is the ladder, however, that a loss will drop the 'Cats to eighth should Melbourne overcome the Bullets.

What’s working?

Three-point party – Long-range shooting had been Adelaide’s Achilles heel, but they’ve nailed 40 per cent in their past four games – 11.3 at 47 per cent against Tassie, Cairns and the Hawks – with Robert Franks (10/18), Ian Clark (9/17), Antonius Cleveland (5/11), Daniel Johnson (3/7) and Mitch McCarron (3/7) all on song. They're just 13/47 in two meetings with Perth and -18 on points from the arc, so a hot shooting night could be the difference.

Foul discipline – Mody Maor was frustrated his men couldn’t get to the foul line against Perth, but he needs to get in line. The Wildcats have the NBL’s best foul discipline, committing league-lows of 15.5 fouls and 16.5 opposition free-throw attempts, down from the rest-of-NBL average of 20.5. That’s a big reason why Perth commit a league-low 10.6 turnovers, rarely allowing opposition defences to set up their press from stoppages.

What needs stopping?

TaShawn Thomas – When Adelaide beat the Wildcats in Round 8, Thomas had just eight points at 36 per cent. When the 'Cats won the rematch, he blistered with 22 points at 71 per cent, with all 10 of his buckets coming within four feet. After averaging 8.8ppg at 45 per cent leading into that game, TT has been a scoring machine ever since with 17.9ppg at 70 per cent, dominating opposition interiors with his poise and touch on both side of the body.

Antonius Cleveland – The 36ers want to play at a high pace, but when Cleveland has eight points on 2/10 like he did in Tassie on Thursday, it’s hard for them to prevail in a shootout. Most notably, he had just two rebounds and one defensive board in 24 minutes, robbing Adelaide of their primary weapon for sparking transition scores. Given he averaged 16.6 points and 7.6 caroms in his previous seven games, expect a big bounce-back performance.

Who’s missing key men?

Both teams are expected to be at full strength for Saturday’s blockbuster, despite a scare for the Perth Wildcats.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">? TEAM UPDATE ?<br><br>Bryce Cotton has PASSED his fitness test and will play in tonight’s game. ? <a href="https://t.co/p7XjBlSTjl">pic.twitter.com/p7XjBlSTjl</a></p>— Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1614171440294817792?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 14, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s matching up?

Bryce Cotton v Sunday Dech & Cleveland – Do you want to guard Bryce after he had a 3/17 night against New Zealand? After Adelaide held him to 5/14 shooting in a Round 8 home loss, he made a statement with 32 points, six assists and +18 in the rematch a fortnight later. Dech and the Sixers have had multiple successes slowing the perennial MVP, but Perth showed on Tuesday they have the firepower to post a winning score without him firing.

Brady Manek v Daniel Johnson – Adelaide have seen the best and worst of Manek, his 25-point outburst on 6/8 from deep keying the Wildcats’ Round 6 win. In two meetings since he’s shot a wayward 1/9 outside and gone -23, Perth +17 with their import resting. Johnson had 17 points at 60 per cent in the 36ers’ win over the old rival, but just 7ppg at 33 per cent in two Ls. Which of this pair can open up the floor for their teammates on Saturday?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The ol' one two. <br><br>? - <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> + <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> <a href="https://t.co/J3MsqwIxz9">pic.twitter.com/J3MsqwIxz9</a></p>— Adelaide 36ers (@Adelaide36ers) <a href="https://twitter.com/Adelaide36ers/status/1613466067619434497?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 12, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what

When he was asked whether he was pleased his team no longer relies on Bryce Cotton to win games, coach John Rillie’s answer was emphatic.

“Let’s not been mistaken, we rely on Bryce Cotton,” he said.

“(New Zealand) did a great job with him, but in saying that he still creates a lot of gravity from the defence, creates a lot of opportunity.

“So is it comforting that we can win when Bryce has what people would consider a below-Bryce Cotton game? Absolutely. But his value, you can’t measure it when he’s out on the floor.”

In some ways it can. Last season, Cotton’s on-off differential was a league-best +21 points per 40 minutes. In NBL23, it’s a second-ranked +16.1, behind only Chris Goulding.

Bryce is undoubtedly the straw the stirs Perth’s offensive drink, but what’s been different in the past few weeks – as the 'Cats have gone 6-3 after a 5-7 start – is they're no longer relying on just their offence to get it done.

“We just stayed aggressive with our defensive coverages,” Rillie said after beating the Breakers.

“Corey Webster getting on the ground, those little things we've been talking about and trying to highlight coming to fruition.

“They’re the kind of plays and the style that excites me, we hung with it and man, what a great emotional win for us and onto the next one.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The game-sealing dunk from LT!! <br><br>How about that team hustle. ? <a href="https://t.co/t21uQhPttd">pic.twitter.com/t21uQhPttd</a></p>— Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1612787969714458625?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 10, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The Wildcats were outshot 53 to 45 per cent in that game, chucking up a wayward 7/23 from the arc as Bryce sprayed 1/7, but they still racked up a match-winning 93 points.

That was on the back of winning possession scores – points from turnovers and second chance points – 39-24 in a three-point victory.

There wasn’t much pretty about it, Perth just made the plays that were needed down the stretch.

“Everyone talks about winning, but how many people really want to win and tonight you saw a team that really wanted to win, getting on the floor, deflections, talking, asking questions, the communication was at a great level,” Rillie said.

“Everyone wants to win in some way, but everyone who is successful is prepared to go a little further and do the things that are uncomfortable to do.

“It’s not easy, we showed it tonight, but can we come back against Adelaide and show the same grit?”

That’s the question Tasmania, Perth, SE Melbourne, Melbourne and Adelaide are all asking themselves as they battle for the final three post-season spots.

The 36ers simply didn’t show enough grit at the defensive end in Tasmania, allowing the JackJumpers to run up 98 points at 55 per cent inside and 40 percent outside.

“They're a team that does very good at controlling the tempo and moving the ball and taking the select shot that they want to get ... I wanted to take away a few of their shots which we were unable to do,” coach CJ Bruton said.

“Defensively we had some breakdowns here and there and giving up o-boards which got kick-out three-balls which kept us at a point where we weren’t able to be in front.”

Adelaide only scored 82 points despite a red-hot 24-point performance from Roberts Franks, who shot 72 per cent from the field and 5/7 from range.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Man on ????.<br><br>? - <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> + <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> <a href="https://t.co/W5Hswu6ox5">pic.twitter.com/W5Hswu6ox5</a></p>— Adelaide 36ers (@Adelaide36ers) <a href="https://twitter.com/Adelaide36ers/status/1613479445217841152?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 12, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

While Franks could understandably be disappointed he didn’t get more than 11 shot attempts, he understands that came down to the lack of zip at the defensive end.

“It just comes down to us moving the ball and sharing it, and obviously you’ve got to get stops,” he said.

“We weren’t getting stops so they were able to set up their defence and pick us up full court.

“I think it comes down to getting stops and running, that’s when we’re at our best and we’re able to share the ball and everybody gets to feel good.”

The 36ers are now 11-11 and in eighth spot. Had they prevailed in their pair of one-basket losses to Cairns and New Zealand they would be 0.5 games off second.

That’s the reality of NBL23, and a loss in Saturday’s open air game could leave them 1.5 games outside the top six, while a win gives them the chance to head to Brisbane next and put heat on fourth place.

The late-season maths can leave your head spinning, but Bruton simply wants his team back to the high-energy defence that sparks their deadly running game, as tough as that may be backing up in front of a sold-out Perth crowd.

“We've got some work to do and we need to be ready to go, there’s no excuses, you can travel and play (hard),” Bruton said.

“We’re about to go into an environment where every possession counts, we know what we’re playing for and we need to be ready.”