Preview: Cairns v Tasmania (Round 16)

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Friday 20 January, 2023
Where: Cairns Convention Centre
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ
LIVE STATS AND BOX SCORE

Who won last time?

Cairns 91 (Pinder 34, McCall 23, Scott 12) d Tasmania 82 (McVeigh 17, Doyle 15, Magette 13) – Round 11 at MyState Bank Arena, Hobart

For the second straight time the JackJumpers jumped Cairns in the first half and led by nine points on three different occasions surrounding half-time. But in another repeat of the Taipans’ Round 1 barnburner Adam Forde’s crew charged back and secured a clutch win with a 16-2 run in the final four minutes. Keanu Pinder was unstoppable with 34 points as the Snakes dominated interior scoring 68-41, while Tahjere McCall adding 20 of his 23 inside the arc.

What happened last game?

It was the Taipans weathering a blistering late burst last Sunday, but weather it they did to record their sixth straight win minus Keanu Pinder - they're now 2.5 games clear in second spot. McCall’s pressure defence was a key factor in holding New Zealand to 83 points. Tasmania brought the intensity a little late against the Phoenix. They gave up six offensive rebounds in the opening six minutes of the game to fall 11 points behind, a margin they never recovered despite challenging all night.

What’s working?

Physical, athletic defence – Remarkably only two teams - Perth twice and the Kings once - have reached 90 points against the Snakes in regulation. It’s an outstanding achievement for the NBL’s second-ranked defence, who don’t get it done the fundamental way. They rank mid-table in defensive field-goal percentage and opposition three-point clip, but sit first in turnovers forced, first in blocks and second in steals thanks to their long, athletic line-up.

Hands-on defence – The JackJumpers don’t have Cairns’ athleticism, but they do have their physicality. They've been inconsistent and have conceded a ninth-ranked 47 per cent from the field and given up 90 points or more five times in the past 13 games, after doing so just four times in the entire NBL22 regular season. They held South East Melbourne to 39 per cent shooting on Wednesday though by initiating arm contact on the ball-handler 63 times in the final 30 minutes. Will they be permitted that amount of physicality in front of a loud Cairns crowd?

What needs to be stopped?

Straight-line Snakes – If the JackJumpers can’t get physical on the perimeter there could be a lot of whistles at the hoop. Cairns have shot 54 free throws in the season series to be +30. McCall and Pinder have taken 33 between them – nine more than the whole Tasmania team – and DJ Hogg, Shannon Scott, Sam Waardenburg and Majok Deng have all made multiple trips. Tasmania gave up 25.8 foul shots in their past five losses, compared to 18.6 in their previous five victories.

Sloppy turnovers – Cairns and the JackJumpers rank first and second in turnovers forced and steals, but in two trips to Tassie this season the Taipans have coughed it up just 20 times, and they won points from turnovers 15-8 in their nine-point Round 11 win. In their past three wins Scott Roth’s men have forced an average of 21 turnovers and outscored opponents 71-32 from those errors, while Cairns lead that category 116-70 in their six-game winning streak.

Who’s missing key men?
Both teams are expected to be at full strength on Friday night.

Who’s matching up?

Tahjere McCall v Milton Doyle – He may as well be known as Tahj Mahal, so palatial has his form been in recent weeks. The Taipans’ spiritual leader has not only averaged 19.4ppg, 6.3rpg and 4.3apg in the past nine outings, he’s had two or fewer turnovers in seven of those, and committed just one in 61 minutes in Round 15. Then there’s his defence, and that will be well-tested by Doyle, who after averaging 14ppg at 33 per cent in two clashes with Cairns, will be looking to get off the chain via the Will Magnay ball-screen.

DJ Hogg v Jack McVeigh – While Pinder’s return means this pair won’t spend as much time head-to-head, their roles and importance to their respective teams is very similar. Hogg has scored 15 or more in nine of the Snakes’ past 11 games, shooting 38 per cent from deep and hitting all sorts of clutch shots. After a lean patch, McVeigh has averaged 19ppg in the past four at a blistering 57 per cent from outside. Who will get hottest on Friday?

Keanu Pinder v Rashard Kelly – Pinder was simply too quick for Magnay last time, and with Kelly inserted into the starting line-up to give extra athleticism in recent weeks expect this to be his match-up. Pinder returns after being subdued by excellent team defence in his past few games, so don’t expect to see Kelly left on an island. At the other end Kelly is making a late-season stand averaging 16.3ppg at 58 per cent, 5.7rpg, 1.7apg, 1.3 steals and a block in his past three, while bringing the above-the-rim action Tassie had been lacking.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Rashard Kelly is making sure to get his share of Christmas stuffing early ?<br><br>Catch the final quarter of action live on ESPN via Kayo Sports and Foxtel. <a href="https://t.co/InMoXSlRCJ">pic.twitter.com/InMoXSlRCJ</a></p>&mdash; NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1605864384017797120?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 22, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

It was Ian Matthews who announced to the world in 1974 that ‘Some days you eat the bear, and some days the bear eats you’, and in the gripping NBL playoff race, Scott Roth agrees.

“When the games are going back-and-forth and everyone’s juggling around the standings, one team is going to inflict in their style of play, how they want to play, and the other team is going to react to that or succumb to it. We succumbed to it,” he said following their loss to the Phoenix.

A sloppy first few minutes cost the JackJumpers, and from there South East Melbourne expertly controlled the tempo, just as United did in Hobart ?? weeks earlier.

“They just man-handled us for most of the game and beat us in the effort and energy areas,” Roth said.

The way they lost would be of some concern to the Tassie boss, given it was a JackJumpers-style game and his team couldn’t have manhandled the Phoenix much more without being whistled out of the gym.

Yet Gary Browne and Co absorbed their physicality, executed calmly and were able to exploit their own strengths.

“It was everything we discussed the last two days about playing them,” Roth said.

“Trying to keep them off the foul line and you have to gang rebound against them, we did both those two things poorly.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">????? = <a href="https://twitter.com/alantwilliams?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@alantwilliams</a> ?<br><br>? <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> ?? <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/Foxtel?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Foxtel</a> <a href="https://t.co/manNVo2Sg2">pic.twitter.com/manNVo2Sg2</a></p>&mdash; South East Melbourne Phoenix (@SEMelbPhoenix) <a href="https://twitter.com/SEMelbPhoenix/status/1615646784625463299?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 18, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That’s not a recipe for success in Cairns either, and in two meetings this season the Snakes have imposed their will on Tasmania.

While Adam Forde has confessed to his affection for firing the three-ball, in Round 11 his team exposed the JackJumpers’ defensive underbelly and took a season-low 14 long-range attempts.

“We recognised we could get to the foul line if we stayed aggressive and feeding Keanu in the block,” Forde said post-game.

“It was purely based on a match-up where we knew we could get out in the open court in transition and put heat on the rim, attack the paint. It just happened to be the shots were inside the three rather than beyond it.”

Tassie’s chief tormentor that game was Keanu Pinder, who racked up 34 points on 9/15 in the paint and 10/10 from the charity stripe to prompt Tahj McCall to label his big man “unguardable”.

The JJs did find a way to slow him down, but Cairns were ready.

“He's been tough, especially in that low block. We can get our offence going with him and we knew they were going to make some adjustments,” Forde said.

“We talked about that at half-time, we knew there was going to be a little bit more pressure, there was going to be a little bit more of guys trying to fill the gaps and potentially look to run and double, so making sure we had those options available.

“He had 20 of our 45 at half and then everybody else took care of business. It was a lot of maturity from not just Keanu but the whole group to recognise that and pick their moments.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A powerhouse performance from Keanu Pinder has led the <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CairnsTaipans</a> to their third victory in 7 days. <a href="https://t.co/XnBxGbQwNM">https://t.co/XnBxGbQwNM</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/emmaha11iday?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@emmaha11iday</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/7NEWS?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#7NEWS</a> <a href="https://t.co/KIl0pFLEKm">pic.twitter.com/KIl0pFLEKm</a></p>&mdash; 7NEWS Cairns (@7NewsCairns) <a href="https://twitter.com/7NewsCairns/status/1604748709580767232?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 19, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Pinder has picked the right moment to return, the Taipans with a five-day break to get him reintegrated into their red-hot outfit.

“His game’s built on speed and downhill and more importantly touch and rhythm, so it’s important we get a full week on the training court in the open floor so he feels confident within himself,” Forde said.

While sitting 16-7 with a three-game break inside the top two and only five contests remaining seems pretty comfortable for the Taipans, Forde knows how quickly fortunes have changed for sides underneath them, and wants no part of that dogfight.

“We’re not going to sit here and say 16 wins is great and put our feet up because we've still got five more to go,” he said.

“We can find ourselves back on the plane if we don’t take care of business, especially at home.”

If they take care of business on Friday night they will set a new franchise-best streak of seven victories, and match their win total from the past two seasons combined.

They’d better be ready to go, however, because the Jackies will be.

“We've got to put our footprint on the game straight away and make sure at least that first quarter we’re playing on our terms,” captain Clint Steindl said after the SEM game.

“That will go a long way and hopefully over the course of 40 minutes it will pay it’s reward towards the end of that.

“We have to build pressure in the first quarter to reward ourselves later in the game, as long as we don’t start the same way we did tonight we’ll be ok.”