Preview: Adelaide v Melbourne (Round 16)

When: 8pm (AEDT), Saturday 21 January, 2023
Where: Adelaide Entertainment Centre
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ
LIVE SCORES & STATS

Who won the last time

Adelaide 74 (Drmic 21, Franks 21, Cleveland 15) d Melbourne 101 (Tucker 23, Rathan-Mayes 15, Peatling 11) – Round 7, John Cain Arena
This Round 7 contest was almost a microcosm of Adelaide’s season, falling behind early, unleashing a 14-0 run to lead by double-figures before quarter-time, switching off to trail in the second stanza, jumping 15 ahead in the third term before letting Melbourne back within a bucket in the final period. The 36ers held on to win this one, overcoming a night out from Rayjon Tucker thanks to some near-perfect 9/10 free-throw shooting down the stretch.

What happened last game?

Adelaide weren’t quite so accurate in crunch time in Brisbane, shooting 3/7 from the charity stripe in overtime to waste a golden chance to move back within a game of sixth place, their slow start particularly costly. It’s only percentage keeping Melbourne out of the top six at the moment after seven wins from their past eight games, Round 15 delivering triumphs in Christchurch and Brisbane, where Tucker, Chris Goulding and Xavier Rathan-Mayes combined for 71 points to overcome a soft night on the defensive glass.

What’s working?

Melbourne United – Despite losing frontcourt pillars Isaac Humphries and Dave Barlow, Melbourne found a way twice in 48 hours some 2300km apart last round. They forced 32 turnovers across those two games, scored 43 points from those errors, allowed just 42 per cent from two-point range and only gave up 17 free throws per night. At the other end, XRM made a welcome return to form with 40 points at 58 per cent to guide them home.

Playing at home – Adelaide are 5-1 from their past six home games, averaging 94.7ppg and giving up 85.2ppg. They are 0-6 from their past six road dates, averaging 87.5ppg while leaking 100.2ppg. This side seems to be a different proposition depending on which side of the South Australian border they’re on, but they now need to win all four remaining games, and they must ride the energy of Saturday's sell-out from tip-off to get their defence going.

What needs stopping?

Leaving it to Antonius – In the 36ers’ four-game home win streak, Cleveland averaged a whopping 3.5 steals per night, inevitably turning the game with his defensive intensity. In their current four-game skid they’ve given up 25 points or more in seven of the 16 quarters, and AC desperately needs more help making defensive stands when opposition teams get on top, because without run from their D the Sixers struggle to score consistently.

Leaking o-boards – Where Adelaide have been impressive is on the glass, ranking second in offensive rebounding percentage and third on the defensive boards. That mixed with the 36ers’ speed is cause for concern for Melbourne, who gave up 17.5 o-boards at 43 per cent in two fast-paced meetings with Brisbane that averaged 167 possessions. In two walk-up clashes with Tassie and NZ, with just 146 possessions, they allowed 11.5 o-boards at 29 per cent. Expect Dean Vickerman’s men to be selective about when they run-and-gun at the offensive end.

Who’s missing key men?

Dave Barlow and Isaac Humphries remain sidelined for Melbourne, while Ian Clark is a game-time decision for the 36ers. Mitch McCarron will return for the home team.

Who’s matching up?

Antonius Cleveland v Rayjon Tucker – While AC likes to dog ball-handlers and create fast-break points from steals, he’ll be needed primarily for the job on Tucker, who’s scored 20 points or more in 10 of his past 15 contests and burned Brisbane with 30 points at 66 per cent in the paint and 8/9 from the foul line, going +15 in a 10-point triumph. These are the two in-form small forwards of NBL23 and this duel should be worth the price of admission.

Kai Sotto v Marcus Lee – There probably isn’t anyone as long as the 218cm Sotto in the NBL, but Marcus might come the closest. Kai had nine points, seven boards and two blocks in 16 minutes in Brisbane, but this match-up will test his defensive decision-making. There’s no better lob threat than Lee, and Melbourne’s guards know where to throw it. Similarly, when United’s shooters draw opposition bigs to contest on the perimeter, Marcus makes them pay with 3.4 o-boards in his past eight games. If only he could consistently master the NBL whistle.

Sunday Dech v Chris Goulding – The shooter who’s usually stretching the defence to open up driving and rebounding lanes is CG43, whose landed 25 triples in his past six games. Brisbane kept him to just seven long-range heaves last round and almost pinched the W, with United 4-11 when their skipper has single-figure attempts compared to 7-1 when he has 10 or more. Can Dech and Anthony Drmic stay in his shorts for long enough on Saturday? Goulding only had 10 points on 2/7 from range in Adelaide’s Round 7 triumph.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A pair of CG threes &amp; one from Tuck keeping us in the lead!<br>Tune in: ESPN via Kayo or Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/6Me2fgRK7V">pic.twitter.com/6Me2fgRK7V</a></p>&mdash; Melbourne United (@MelbUnited) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnited/status/1614171774517915652?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 14, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Right now, Melbourne United look like a playoff team.

When the fell to Sydney on Christmas Day to start their holiday season road trip, their 9-12 record suggested the post-season was almost out of reach, but four wins in hostile territory since have put them on the finals doorstep.

Impressive grind-out wins in Hobart and Auckland showed a new element of toughness to this version of United, and they weathered a Bullets second-half storm expertly to stay on track.

“Pretty composed fourth quarter from us. Foul trouble, different people playing different spots, we end up playing the game out a little bit smaller,” coach Dean Vickerman said in Brisbane.

“There’s been good composure from this group recently about our process. CG’s a great one in leading that from the playing group, we’re not getting too high or too low in situations.

“I love the way we've just handled things, got back to our defensive rules, make sure we’re sharing the basketball, screening well and trusting each other and that’s building with our group.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Mase gets scoring underway in NZ. <br><br>?: ESPN on Kayo or Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/4ntGa3xeTe">pic.twitter.com/4ntGa3xeTe</a></p>&mdash; Melbourne United (@MelbUnited) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnited/status/1613425528618496001?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 12, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Right now, Adelaide do not look like a playoff team.

Well, they do at times, but usually it’s consistent teams who progress while patchy outfits watch the post-season on television.

“We've been Jekyll and Hyde all season and clearly we had our patches again tonight where we looked really good and moved the ball,” coach CJ Bruton said after his team fell to the improved Bullets.

“Like every game there’s some breakdowns from each individual and as a team with the concepts we were trying to get done.”

The 36ers recruited a team to play high-energy, fast-paced basketball, but Bruton and the entire team have grown visibly frustrated with that tap being turned on and off in games.

They’ve won a number of contests by charging home late on the back of their defence, but their lethargic starts and sulky moments have cost them just as often.

“It’s supposed to be that way all the time, to be able to play a certain style of basketball, change the brand, change the culture, it’s how I want to play,” Bruton said.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Steal and 3. It was the Fantastic Noodles Play of the Day.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeAreSixers?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeAreSixers</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SwoopTheHoop?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#SwoopTheHoop</a> <a href="https://t.co/vm9Ij7D2Ro">pic.twitter.com/vm9Ij7D2Ro</a></p>&mdash; Adelaide 36ers (@Adelaide36ers) <a href="https://twitter.com/Adelaide36ers/status/1616231661322002438?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 20, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t (frustrated), but in saying that my job is to lead these guys and show them every way we can win the ball game, try to keep them from being frustrated with each other or how things are playing out on the floor.

“Sometimes it’s in your control, sometimes it isn’t, but the things you can control you're supposed to go after a little more.

“There’s been some times when I feel like we haven't given that (our) all ... and that’s come back to bite us on the butt.”

Of course, the 36ers have beaten Sydney, Cairns, Perth, Tasmania, SE Melbourne, Melbourne, Brisbane and Illawarra, and went within an open Ian Clark triple of toppling the Breakers, showing they are more than capable of doing damage at the pointy end.

“It sucks right now, I think the boys are hurting a little bit, but we've got to recoup and bring it for 40 minutes against Melbourne,” Anthony Drmic said.

“It’s going to be a tough run home but I truly believe we can beat anyone in this league when we show up and play the right way.

“It’s just putting it together for 40 minutes and doing that. Tough run but I think we can do it, we've just got to come and play.”

A win in front of sold-out crowd could have Adelaide within 0.5 games of the top six by round’s end, but they’ll have to earn it against a Melbourne team who have found the mindset the 36ers are craving.

“Super desperate,” Rayjon Tucker said.

“That’s what we've been playing with for the last couple of weeks, just that relentless and desperation to give ourselves the best opportunity to make that playoff berth, because we feel we are a championship-calibre team.”