Preview: Adelaide v Cairns (Round 9)

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Friday 2 December, 2022

Where: Adelaide Entertainment Centre

Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel, Sky NZ

Who won last time?

Adelaide 83 (McCarron 21, Bairstow 12, Dufelmeier 10) d Cairns 57 (Pinder 15, McCall 14, Kuol 12) – Round 16, NBL22, Adelaide Entertainment Centre

You don’t win many games of basketball when you shoot 27 per cent from the floor, and that’s exactly what the NBL22 Taipans did last time they headed to Adelaide. The Snakes did a great job on the o-boards, but those kick-outs juts added to the misery as they bricked 4/25 from long range. The 36ers weren’t blistering themselves, but Mitch McCarron’s 21-point, 10-rebound, three-assist, three-steal night kept the scoreboard ticking over.

What happened last game?

If there was any doubt, Cairns confirmed they’re a totally different package this season, charging from 14 down in the final term to force OT and topple the Kings. Tahj McCall and Bul Kuol were huge defensively, Keanu Pinder was omnipresent throughout and DJ Hogg made the shots when it mattered most. Adelaide made their own statement in Perth with a record 14-point road win over the Cats, their star-studded starting five combining for 74 points at a sizzling 67 per cent from inside the arc as they dominated the paint.

What’s working?

Sharing is caring – In four games without Craig Randall, the Sixers are averaging 20.3 assists to 13.5 turnovers for a 3-1 record, compared to a woeful 14.5 and 14.8 and a 2-4 return. That’s resulted in easy scores and +73 on ‘ones and twos’, compared to -27 with Randall. When CJ Bruton says he’s waiting for the right replacement import, it’s because he wants a player who will add to that selfless culture, not detract from it like their predecessor.

Applying heat – When the Taipans win they force 18.1 turnovers per night and are +46 on points from miscues. When they lose, the Snakes force 13.5 cough-ups and are -18 on points from turnovers. In victories, the Taipans shoot 23.4 free throws per game, compared to 17.5 in defeat. It’s no secret Cairns are a work in progress as a half-court offensive team, so right now their ability to apply heat at both ends is crucial to them posting a winning score.

What needs stopping?

Keanu downhill – Pinder had a staggering 20 free-throw attempts against Sydney, his downhill attacks in transition deadly with the change of officiating that’s recently taken place. In total, 19 of his points and seven of his fouls drawn were in the first 12 seconds of the possession as Cairns fed him on the move, and Robert Franks will need to be dedicated to this defensive job, as Pinder will exploit anyone who can’t contest his shot.

Robert Franks anywhere – Without Randall, the 36ers have become Franks’ team offensively and he’s responded, averaging 20.3ppg at a stunning 61 per cent from inside, his length a real challenge for opposition four-men. It hasn’t all been about him though, dishing 2.5 dimes per night to help his teammates also shoot 61 per cent on twos, while Franks has also nailed 36 per cent from deep in that four-game span to help spread the floor.

Who’s matching up?

Antonius Cleveland v DJ Hogg – It’s almost a travesty we’ve had to wait until Round 9 to see this match-up. Hogg has shot just 7/28 in his past two games, but true to his clutch form nailed two triples to force OT against the Kings, and is the Taipans’ clear plus/minus leader as the man their offence revolves around. He must connect early from deep on Friday to draw Cleveland away from the glass, where he sparks Adelaide’s running game.

Daniel Johnson v Sam Waardenburg – If there’s ever been a ‘baby DJ’ in the NBL it’s Waardenburg, and his all-court offensive game that is so reminiscent of the Adelaide legend is starting to shine, averaging 14.5ppg at 56 per cent from the field and 6/14 from deep in his past four. He’s making strides defensively too, and he’ll need his wits about him against Johnson, who bounced back to form with 17 points at 60 per cent in the win over Perth.

Mitch McCarron v Shannon Scott – The money maker is in a rich vein of all-around form, averaging 8.7ppg at 53 per cent, 7.3rpg, 5apg and 3.3spg in his past three contests. Scott’s recent shooting form hasn’t been good, producing just 4ppg at 18 per cent in his prior three, so look for a bounce-back, but the key will be which point guard can create great looks without turning the ball over and sparking their opposition’s deadly open-court games.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Waardenburg starts us off with a BANG! ?<br><br>Watch LIVE on ESPN ? <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/OrangeArmy?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#OrangeArmy</a> <a href="https://t.co/0sVhghyAo6">pic.twitter.com/0sVhghyAo6</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1597149051539296256?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 28, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Going into last Monday’s clash with Sydney just 1-3 against the top two, and trailing by 14 early in the fourth term, it appeared the Taipans belonged in the ‘next best’ category of NBL23 as we approached the midway point of the season.

From there, however, they unleashed a remarkable 39-19 run in the next 12 minutes to secure a memorable overtime win and pull within one game of the Kings in second place.

In that burst, the Taipans scored 30 points from half-court offence at an ultra-efficient 65 per cent, a significant performance given their inconsistency in this aspect of the game so far.

DJ Hogg had 14 of those half-court points, but with six different Snakes scoring down the stretch, coach Adam Forde was delighted with his entire team’s high-IQ execution.

“DJ struggled all game and he's a big-time player, and he made the big-time shots when it was needed,” Forde said.

“I felt real confident going into overtime and I felt momentum was in our favour. They went to that small ball line-up so we targeted where we wanted to put that ball.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">WE&#39;RE GOING TO OT!!! ?<br><br>Watch LIVE on ESPN ? <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/OrangeArmy?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#OrangeArmy</a> <a href="https://t.co/rV6ifshGzZ">pic.twitter.com/rV6ifshGzZ</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1597177310611849216?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 28, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

It’s not a case of problem solved, however, given Cairns scored just 55 points at 29 per cent over the opening 33 minutes.

“I won't lie, it was kind of frustrating. There was a couple of times earlier in the game when we had some really good looks, some wide-open looks,” Forde said.

“We get a bit of momentum which was good but then sort of went away from it again, and then went to our default of trying to shoot ourselves out of it.

“I wouldn’t put it down to poor shot selection because I'm real particular about what our shot selection is, but the thing about it is what else can we go to when it's not dropping?”

Thankfully, Forde’s team knows the answer to that question – up the defence.

They forced the Kings into 21 turnovers on Monday to win the possession game by 14, which was ultimately the decisive factor.

“What's great about this team is that we're able to generate turnovers,” Forde said.

“That's what the team's designed to do. If he shot drops, great, but if it doesn’t we find other ways to win.”

The good news for Adelaide is they are becoming a far more organised offensive unit against pressure.

“We don’t want to be giving teams run-outs and fast breaks and easy scores and lay-ups to get them going,” McCarron said.

“We want to stay aggressive, we are going to turn the ball over, but we just don’t want to spark the other team.”

Instead they are using their improved defence to spark themselves.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Unbelievable this, thanks to Fantastic Noodles.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeAreSixers?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeAreSixers</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SwoopTheHoop?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#SwoopTheHoop</a> <a href="https://t.co/kSjefacQDr">pic.twitter.com/kSjefacQDr</a></p>&mdash; Adelaide 36ers (@Adelaide36ers) <a href="https://twitter.com/Adelaide36ers/status/1595892516179566592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 24, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“It’s great to see guys having fun in transition and that is the team we want to be,” McCarron said.

“Locked in defensively, get stops, rebound and push the ball. We are going to be unselfish, we are going to let the ball pop ahead and then go a have some fun.

“Now we are finding that consistency of effort on the defensive end and offensively we can reward ourselves.”

With McCarron now in charge of the ball more, it is getting to Robert Franks and Daniel Johnson more often and finding Antonius Cleveland on reversals where he can explode to the basket.

“I think we are getting better as a whole,” McCarron said.

“We are going to need different guys at different times. That might mean that certain guys don’t play (much) one game and play a lot more in the next one due to match ups.

“We need everyone bought into that.”

There appears to be good buy in, because the better utilisation of their stars is forcing defences to adjust, and allowing capable role players like Anthony Drmic, Sunday Dech, Kai Sotto, Hyrum Harris and Kyrin Galloway to make their mark.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Bangin&#39; it down from the baseline.<br><br>? - <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> + <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> <a href="https://t.co/0bliJVKyjP">pic.twitter.com/0bliJVKyjP</a></p>&mdash; Adelaide 36ers (@Adelaide36ers) <a href="https://twitter.com/Adelaide36ers/status/1595737487414267904?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 24, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“Kai has come back in with great effect, KG (Galloway) has been showing his stuff and Nick Marshall has been good in bursts,” McCarron said.

“Kai is a great defender for us and is a great rim protector. That is something we probably have missed at times which is what we need to do and that is to keep people out of the paint.”

Those are likely to be the two pivotal battles on Friday, who can generate speed without opening the back-door for easy opposition transition scores, and whether it’s Pinder's and Co or Franks’ crew that owns the inside.

It’s an intriguing battle between the Taipans, who can move to a 6-1 away record – their most road wins in a season since NBL15 – and a 36ers side that is just 1-3 at the Adelaide Entertainment Centre but went 3-1 on the road in November.

“They are clearly playing good basketball right now, so trying to slow them down, their transition has been elite, Hogg has been amazing for them and Keanu Pinder has been the most outstanding player this past week,” coach CJ Bruton said.

“We haven’t been amazing at home but it’s been a very long time between drinks, and we are only here for a couple of days until we get back on the road.”