R9 Preview: Perth Wildcats v New Zealand Breakers

When: 5.00pm (AEDT), Friday 12 March

Where: John Cain Arena, Melbourne

Broadcast: ESPN; Sky Sports NZ; SBS On Demand; Twitch

The last time

Perth 80 (Plumlee 23, Cotton 23, Kay 20) d New Zealand 79 (Ashley 21, Delany 16, Hopson 13) – January 25, 2020, RAC Arena, Perth

It has now been almost 14 months since the latest instalment in this amazing rivalry between Perth and New Zealand, but it's perhaps only fitting that the last clash was a one-point thriller going back to January of last year. Bryce Cotton was brilliant and new Perth arrival Miles Plumlee kept throwing down dunk after dunk, but still the Wildcats could never shake off the Breakers in front of the Red Army. Plumlee had a remarkable 23 points and 17 rebounds, but still New Zealand had a sniff. The Breakers forced a turnover giving them a chance at the last shot of the game and a potential winner. But Sek Henry and Finn Delany both turned down shots and eventually the clock expired without them putting it up and the 'Cats held on for the one-point win and ultimately, they went on to win the championship, and the Breakers narrowly missed the playoffs.

The now

This is the rivalry that has defined the NBL over the last decade and now both teams come into their first clash ever in Melbourne and their first of #NBL21 in hot form and looking to set the tone for a strong finish to this tournament within a season.

No matter the circumstances, having played one another in the Grand Finals of 2012, 2013 and 2016, and semi finals of 2011 with so many remarkable regular season battles along the way too, it's always special any time Perth and New Zealand hit the floor against one another. And more often than not, something remarkable and memorable takes place too.

The Wildcats come into Friday night's game in the box seat to still take out the NBL Cup as well. They will return to the top of the table with a win on Friday against the Breakers and then they can close the deal on Sunday against their other fierce rivals, the Adelaide 36ers.

If Perth's last up showing is anything to go by as well, they are going to take some stopping after a dominant performance against the Illawarra Hawks on Sunday where the final winning margin of 17 points didn’t tell the full story of how emphatic of a performance it was. John Mooney, Jesse Wagstaff, Todd Blanchfield and Bryce Cotton all scored in double-figures in a superb response to a last up loss to the Brisbane Bullets.

That leaves Perth holding a 7-4 record overall this season now and to be 5-1 at the NBL Cup and really, it's their NBL Cup to lose. If they beat the Breakers and then the 36ers, they are going to claim yet another trophy.

New Zealand is having the season from hell in so many ways. They have been away from home now since early December. Rob Loe is not with the team still at the moment, Lamar Patterson is still out injured and now Corey Webster is about to miss another game with a knee complaint. They then lost six of their first seven games this season including a couple of heavy losses to begin life at the NBL Cup to the Hawks and Kings. 

But guess what? Despite everything working against them, the Breakers are now in some outstanding form and full of confidence having won three of the last four games, and that one loss could have easily gone their way too.

It all started to turn around with a 44-point demolition job on the Adelaide 36ers before also beating the now on-fire Brisbane Bullets. The Breakers then narrowly lost to Melbourne United but hit back with a dominant first half on Wednesday against the Cairns Taipans before then winning on the buzzer with the most remarkable of finishes as captain Tom Abercrombie collected the offensive rebound and swished home the three ball.

That improved the Breakers to a 4-7 record overall on the season and to be 3-3 at the NBL Cup. A win over the Wildcats and then another against the South East Melbourne Phoenix on Sunday, and they could even find themselves in a top thee finish in Melbourne and take home a piece of the prizemoney on offer.

The stats

- This is a remarkable rivalry over the last decade and New Zealand is up two to one in their Grand Final face offs, but Perth has won eight of the last nine meetings including all three last season.
 
- Bryce Cotton is leading the scoring at the NBL Cup with 26.2 points a game and has led the Wildcats in scoring the last six matches. John Mooney is also leading the rebounding at the NBL Cup with 11.5 boards a game and he's led his team in rebounding in all 11 games in #NBL21.

- Colton Iverson has risen to the challenge in the absence of Rob Loe for New Zealand at the NBL Cup. In Melbourne, he is putting up 11.3 points and 8.8 rebounds a game which is up on the 4.6 points and 6.0 boards he had over the opening five rounds.

- Only two players in the league are averaging over 20 points and five assists a game – Bryce Cotton and Tai Webster. Cotton is delivering 24.5 points and 6.3 assists, and Webster 21.3 points and 5.6 assists setting the tone for quite the battle.

The key men

Tai Webster – Well who else really for the New Zealand Breakers? Without his brother Corey for a second straight game, Tai is going to have the ball in his hands a lot, he is going to put up a lot of shots, he is going to be aggressive attacking the basket and he's not afraid to dish off and set up his teammates either. He has every chance to deliver a match-winning performance for the Breakers but what is most important and what has become his Achilles Heel, is that he must avoid getting into foul trouble. The Breakers just won't be able to win if he has to spend too much time riding the bench. But make no mistake, he will be ready and willing to take it right to Bryce Cotton in his first chance to do so in the NBL. The Wildcats, though, will throw Mitch Norton into hounding him defensively too.

Todd Blanchfield – It's too obvious to say that Bryce Cotton is the key for the Perth Wildcats. And in actuality, Bryce is likely to deliver a similar performance whether or not the 'Cats go on to win or lose the game, he is just that good. What the Wildcats success will be predicated on this season and the proof is already in the pudding, is the number of other players who step up to make big contributions. John Mooney has proven himself reliable and consistent, and now Todd Blanchfield needs to make sure that just about on every given night he is aggressive, looking to score and is among Perth's top three scorers. When he does that, they inevitably win games of basketball and that's proven by the fact that he's averaging scoring 16.7 points in wins this season with Perth and 11.8 in the losses.

The quotes

The Wildcats might be in prime position to win the NBL Cup, but at least publicly that's something coach Trevor Gleeson is not going to be focused on. 

What he is focused on is ensuring his team finishes the time in Melbourne in good form and with momentum to take home with them next week for games at RAC Arena against the Cairns Taipans and Adelaide 36ers.

"We haven't talked about it at all. All we're talking about is New Zealand and Friday night's game. On the horizon for us is getting back to RAC Arena and that's how we are looking at it," Gleeson said.

"We came in here and wanted to come out with a winning record, and we now want to come out of it with some momentum to get back home so we're just locked into New Zealand and that's all we're worried about.

"It's always good to have a finish line instead of not knowing what you're doing from week to week. We've enjoyed this moment and we get to play basketball which is something we love doing. We get to play a lot of games in a short amount of time which is fantastic. 

"Now we want to head home with the right momentum. We are playing at a good level now and it's up to us to stay at that level, and if not keep improving. That's a challenge for every team to keep improving throughout the season and that's where our challenge lies in front of us."

While never easy to be away from home, nobody is dealing with anything close to what the Breakers are and the Wildcats aren't looking for excuses. Instead coach Gleeson feels being able to settle in Melbourne has been good for them.

"Being in one spot especially with us when there's so much travel involved from Perth and we are often travelling every weekend, so to take that out of equation has been a good thing to be in the one spot just playing games," Gleeson said.

"At the same time, this is week six or seven that we've been away from our families in Perth so we want to leave this in a really, upbeat way and to have it as a good memory for us to call back to later on in the year. It has been good for our team morale building our unity and comradeship while over here in Victoria."

The Wildcats and Breakers were scheduled for two games earlier in the season in Perth. While they didn’t go ahead, Gleeson had done his scouting so he feels somewhat prepared for them come Friday night in Melbourne.

"We had prepared well for them because we were going to play them in Perth earlier in the season when they couldn’t make the flight under protocols because they were sick. I haven’t really watched much more of them until now," Gleeson said.

"They have been banged up with a few injuries but I can tell you this one things, anywhere Perth or New Zealand are on the ladder doesn’t matter and is irrelevant, the games are hotly contested all the time. We have a rich history with games against the Breakers and I expect much the same on Friday night. 

"Corey Webster has been there through most of it and so has Abercrombie, and we've got Jesse who was well and truly here before I was with Perth. It's a great history that we've got and it's something that we look forward to the challenge of every year."

It's hard not to be happy to see the Breakers now playing good basketball after what they are going through to play this season, and now coach Dan Shamir hopes they can build on the momentum from that remarkable win on the buzzer against the Taipans on Wednesday.

"Everybody will remember obviously that shot from this game and rightfully so. Sometimes games are decided over big plays or little things like that and I'm really happy for Tom to make a shot like that," Shamir said. 

"It's probably an amazing feeling, I don’t know how it feels. In the big picture, we obviously need to reinvent ourselves a little bit or redefine ourselves because we are a different team without two of our main creators. 

"The main thing is that we stopped them on 73 points and this is what eventually gave us a chance to win the game. We played a very nice first half and it's expected that at some point either shots won't fall or you run out of rhythm and won't make the right plays. Obviously we made a few mistakes but I'm really happy that we won, we'll take it and move on."

While his rotation has shrunk without Rob Loe, Corey Webster and Lamar Patterson, Shamir has been delighted with how the rest of his experienced players have stepped up including imposing centre Colton Iverson.

"It's obviously an individual thing about people stepping it up and Colton has really stepped it up in I don’t know how many games now. For me it's a joy to have a guy like that," Shamir said.

"I haven’t had a lot of players like that who have so much presence and impact on the game with all the little things they do. I think the guys are playing together and in that last game, they had to dig in and defend, and make a lot of plays like that offensive rebound. 

"The ball was loose and we tipped it to Tom and this is how the little things that players do can win games. I'm extremely happy for that."

And then captain Tom Abercrombie delivered a performance for the ages in the win over the Taipans. Not just with the game winner, but what he did all evening and now Shamir wants to see more of it.

"We have been waiting for that version of Tom for quite some time. He gives us a lot even when he doesn’t impact the stat sheet like he did in this game and obviously that's why he's on the floor almost every minute of the game," Shamir said. 

"But we need that kind of quality from him and he had a very nice game in a lot of aspects. He's always focused and defends well, and he impacted the game with good plays and post ups, some good reads and we will need a lot of that. Mr Abercrombie has got 48 hours to recover and do that again."