R9 Preview: Cairns Taipans v SE Melbourne Phoenix

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Friday 12 March

Where: John Cain Arena, Melbourne

Broadcast: ESPN; Sky Sports NZ; SBS On Demand; Twitch


The last time
Cairns 103 (Machado 24, Newbill 23, Deng 20) d SE Melbourne 102 (Creek 32, Trist 16, Roberson 15), Round 17, 2019/20, State Basketball Centre, Melbourne

If the Taipans can remember back to their last meeting with SE Melbourne it might bring some much needed optimism – holding on in the face of a ferocious Phoenix charge and a cacophonous home crowd to record an epic win and move themselves within reach of the playoffs. DJ Newbill and Scott Machado keyed a Cairns offence that was simply unstoppable, shooting 64 per cent from inside and 13-of-26 from the arc. Mitch Creek alone made this a ball game for the Phoenix with his relentless attack on the rim, but it wasn’t quite enough.


The now
Those were the days, Taipans fans would surely say, gazing back to the time when their team hadn’t lost five of their past six to sit three games clear at ladder’s end. Mike Kelly’s men will now likely have to win at least 15 of their final 22 games to feature in the post-season, and given their next three games are in front of hostile crowds in Melbourne, Perth and Sydney, there looks to be little relief in sight.

Phoenix fans would be feeling quite different, coming off their team’s ultra-impressive Throwdown win over Melbourne despite having just six regular roster players in uniform. Reuben Te Rangi has rediscovered his best form, Ryan Broekhoff is potentially in uniform on Friday night and their next three games are at John Cain Arena, but the men in green are still without Keifer Sykes and Adam Gibson in the backcourt.


The stats

 - Despite their injury woes, the Phoenix have averaged 5.7 players scoring 8 or more points in their past seven games, the team dishing a whopping 21.4apg in that stretch
 
 - In these teams’ last meeting Mitch Creek scored 24 of SE Melbourne’s 58 points in the paint, shooting 12-of-15 inside the keyway

 - The inconsistent Taipans’ past seven scores have been 101, 81, 69, 95, 96, 71 and 73. Their made three-pointers in that stretch are 18, 9, 7, 10, 10, 7 and 7

 - Cairns non-import supporting cast hit just 4 triples at 25 per cent against New Zealand on Wednesday. In the Snakes’ four wins they’ve averaged 8.8 treys at 44 per cent


The key men

Mitch Creek – Let’s just put it out there, Mitch Creek is playing like the LeBron James of the NBL. His numbers don’t lie – 21.2ppg, 7.2rpg, 3.5apg, 56 per cent from the floor and 47 per cent from the arc, and his past six games have produced 24.8ppg, 9rpg and 4.2apg. He tormented Cairns last season to the tune of 24.3ppg at 54 per cent, 8.7rpg and 3.7apg and the question for coach Kelly is how to reverse that trend? None of his bigs can cover Creek’s shot and penetration, and the Boomers forward is expert at slicing through zone defences.

Scott Machado – SE Melbourne’s backcourt defensive woes were well-known last season and Machado made the most of it, averaging 26.5ppg at 59 per cent and 8apg in their final two meetings, nailing a ridiculous 10-of-13 from the arc. The problem for Scotty is he needs to produce similar form for Cairns to win at all this season – in their four victories he’s averaged 21.3ppg at 45 per cent along with 8.3apg, having to take 16.5 shot attempts. With Sykes and Gibson out he can reproduce that against the Phoenix, but he needs more help.



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Scott Machado went halfway back to Cairns for this one ? <a href="https://t.co/8clXyHeNFD">pic.twitter.com/8clXyHeNFD</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1369532798327877634?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 10, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The quotes

It might have been fair to expect doom and gloom at the Taipans press conference after Tom Abercrombie broke their hearts on Wednesday, but that wasn’t the case.

Yes the Snakes fell to 3-11, yes they haven’t been able to find much consistency this season, and yes there is a tough run ahead, but coach Kelly found a number of reasons for optimism.

The first, of course, was the outstanding performance of Next Star talent Mojave King.

“I've got high praise for Mojave, he’s stuck with everything whether he’s played a few minutes or like tonight played 20 minutes, and for me it was hard to take him off the floor and I love it when a player makes it really hard for me to sub for them,” he said.

“When he did come out he came back in and earned all those minutes and did it at both ends.

“It wasn’t the frilly stuff or the filler stuff, he was defending, making guys go through his chest, really getting up and going after shots without fouling, did a great job on both ends.”

While some observers used this as evidence that King should have received more court time sooner in the season, they missed the obvious point that ‘Mo’ has worked incredibly hard behind the scenes to bring his defensive game to NBL standard and earn more minutes.

“Just definitely putting more emphasis on it,” King said.

“Being a lot more locked in and focused defensively, talking, listening to my teammates helps a lot as well, and just trying to make sure I'm aware of what’s going on and seeing everything all the time.”



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Young Mojave King with the hoop and harm ?? <a href="https://t.co/pUT4H1iVFZ">pic.twitter.com/pUT4H1iVFZ</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1369540834048143365?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 10, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>



It was a recipe that worked for one of his more fancied teammates, Cam Oliver, who broke out of his long intensity funk.

“I just thought he had more energy tonight,” coach Kelly said of his star big man.

“There is going to be times when he misses shots, as long as he attacks the rim and doesn’t settle for shots, and then defensively does his best to contest, rebound the ball and talk, then I’m happy.

“I thought he had better energy on the defensive end.”

Now here’s the poser for Kelly and Co, does Nate Jawai get more burn at centre against Yani Wetzell to allow Space Cam to match up more often on Mitch Creek on Friday night?

While there is the risk of foul trouble for Oliver, there is also the chance it brings out his competitive beast, because certainly players like Kouat Noi, Fabian Krslovic and King would be overmatched defending Creek.

Whichever way Cairns go won’t bother the Boomer, who reinforced his standing as a legitimate MVP candidate by relentlessly going at Melbourne big boys Jock Landale and Jo Lual-Acuil on Wednesday.

“You’ve got to try and beat that length and athleticism with timing,” Creek said.

“I think I did a pretty good job of mixing up one-footed floaters, off-hand floaters, stutter step, quick hesitations, mixing up whether I keep it or drag and pitch it, chase, slip, screen, go left, go right, spin, up fake, do all the things you try and do because you know they're longer and more athletic and they can get to so many shots.”



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Mitch doing good things on the basketball court <a href="https://t.co/nLnksk3kR5">pic.twitter.com/nLnksk3kR5</a></p>&mdash; South East Melbourne Phoenix (@SEMelbPhoenix) <a href="https://twitter.com/SEMelbPhoenix/status/1369802795893755906?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 11, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>



While Creek is in match-winning form, and the Taipans struggles to stop him, this is a massive danger game for the Phoenix.

They are coming off a heroic win, but players like Creek, Cam Gliddon, Reuben Te Rangi and Kyle Adnam have carried a huge load throughout the NBL Cup and are sure to be fatiguing.

While coach Simon Mitchell is loving his team’s efforts, he desperately wants some more troops in uniform – starting with Kendall Stephens and Ryan Broekhoff on Friday – and more consistency in his team’s on-court discipline.

“Hopefully Kendall and hopefully Ryan, and that will give us a little bit more depth in that backcourt which is what we need right now,” he said.

“There are some key areas of our game we need to be better at, and sometimes when we fall over during the course of the game I can’t take a guy out to talk to him about it because of the rotations and we have to make sure guys get through the game.

“If we get that depth and we get everybody on board we’ll be able to hold guys a little more accountable to the things we value, it will just make us stronger as a team.”