R7 Preview: Brisbane Bullets v Cairns Taipans

When: 4.30pm (AEDT), Sunday 28 February

Where: John Cain Arena, Melbourne

Broadcast: SBS Viceland; Sky Sports NZ; SBS On Demand; Twitch

The last time

Brisbane 105 (Sobey 30, Law 29, Cadee 11) d Cairns 103 (Machado 23, Oliver 21, Deng 15) - January 30, Nissan Arena, Brisbane

This was one of the games of the season in Brisbane marking the only time the Bullets have won back-to-back games while it was in the middle of a six-game losing slide for the Taipans. It went to overtime and ultimately it was a Vic Law drive to the bucket and finish on the last possession that won the game for Brisbane. Plenty happened before that with Cam Oliver and Majok Deng hot early for Cairns before Scott Machado and Jarrod Kenny kept them in it late. In the end, the one-two punch of Law and Nathan Sobey combining for 59 points got the Bullets home in the extra period.

The now

Brisbane and Cairns both took part in the Friday night NBL Cup action for differing results as they now resume hostilities for their first ever meeting outside of Queensland less than 48 hours later.

The Queensland rivals have already played out one overtime thriller this season and now this game shapes as a potentially defining contest in the last match of the second week of action at the NBL Cup in Melbourne.

The Bullets produced a strong performance on Friday night on the back of another big Vic Law showing to defeat the Illawarra Hawks 97-91 and improve to an overall 4-5 record on the season. They are now 1-1 at the NBL Cup having claimed 6.5 points from the 14 available to them over those two matches.

The Taipans had appeared to have got their season on track. They ended their six-game losing streak with a win at home against the New Zealand Breakers which turned out to be their last game before the NBL Cup. Then following a near two-week break, they opened up things at the NBL Cup nicely beating the Illawarra Hawks last Saturday 101-95 with a lot to like about the performance.

But they couldn’t keep it going despite a strong showing two days later against Melbourne United and losing starting power forward Majok Deng along the way to a knee complaint. They were still playing good basketball but things came undone a little in the second half on Friday night against the Perth Wildcats and the end result was a 20-point defeat.

That leaves the Snakes precariously placed overall this NBL season with a 3-8 record coming into Sunday's game and at the NBL Cup, they are 1-2 with eight points from the 21 that have been available to them.

The stats

- The Taipans rely on their starters more than any other team in the league as they averaging 68.8 of their 84.2 points a game, 3.4 of their 4.2 blocks, 13.2 of their 18.1 assists and 27.0 of their 37.9 rebounds. Cam Oliver and Scott Machado are a huge part of that with that pair combining for 34.5 points, 1.8 blocks, 10.2 assists and 14.4 rebounds.

- It's fascinating that in games where Cam Oliver puts up big numbers, the Taipans lose. That can be explained by the fact that he tries to get his team back into the game and that also when the Snakes play well, it's because of others stepping up. Oliver is putting up 11.0 points and 11.3 rebounds in Cairns' three wins, and 19.6 points and 10.4 boards in their eight losses.

- The Bullets are conceding the most points a game at 92.0 and also the most assists by their opponents at 20.1 a game. They are also last in conceding three-point shots with their opponents knocking down the three ball at 38.9 per cent.

- Then we come back to Vic Law and how he is the barometer for the Bullets. In Brisbane's four wins, he is delivering 28.0 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2.5 blocks while shooting at 54.2 per cent from the floor and 40.0 per cent from downtown. In the Bullets' five losses, he's going at just 14.2 points, 8.2 rebounds and 1.2 blocks while shooting at 42.6 per cent from the field and 18.8 per cent from beyond the arc.

The key men

Vic Law – What the last two games have emphasised more than anything is just how much the fortunes of the Bullets rest on what he produces. Two games ago in the loss to the South East Melbourne Phoenix, he had just nine points on 3/10 shooting and Brisbane lost by 16. Then against Illawarra on Friday, he came up huge with 29 points, nine rebounds, three assists and two blocked shots, and the Bullets won. There's no obvious match up for him from a Cairns point of view, he dominated them last time and if he does so again, the Bullets will be tough to stop.

Kouat Noi – He is only in his second season in the NBL and almost half his rookie campaign was lost to an ankle injury, but he does seem to be a barometer for the fortunes of the Taipans. When he plays well, he offers great energy at both ends, he's a good and athletic rebounder and a real team lifter. But like most young players, he can have his off nights too. He had a career-best 27 points against Melbourne United but struggled on Friday against the Perth Wildcats. Without Majok Deng, he's going to have to spend time as undersized power forward and will have to spend time trying to keep Vic Law in check. His scoring punch is important, but there's plenty resting on his shoulders in this one.

The quotes

Vic Law came out with redemption on his mind following a down performance in the loss to South East Melbourne, but he came out with an aggressive mindset against Illawarra which he now hopes to build on.

The Taipans might need to hope that he has shaved his moustache for Sunday's game.

"I think against South East Melbourne I took it easy on them and wasn’t aggressive early," Law said.

"I gave them a break but in this game I made a point that I was going to come out and be aggressive whether that was by shooting or just attacking the defence and drawing two defenders, and getting my teammates. 

"I just had to put my stamp on this one to get a Bullets win. There's a stat that I don’t know if anyone has taken it, but we are undefeated when I have a moustache, and it's back and we won. That's all I'm going to say."

While Bullets coach Andrej Lemanis acknowledges Law was pivotal, he doesn’t want the influence of Matt Hodgson or Jason Cadee to be lost either.

"Let's not overlook Hodgy's performance. He fouled out again in 17 minutes, but he's a difference-maker and when you talk about stats and Vic's 27 points, I think in games where Hodgy plays we are 4-1 and in games he doesn't play we are 0-4," Lemanis said.

"For me that shows the influence that he has on games with his presence defensively, his ability to rebound and he's just such a focal point for us, and a steadying focal point for us giving us the ability to throw it into the block and get higher percentage shots off him. All of that just makes a difference.

"Whilst Jason's ankle injury looked horrendous in the Phoenix game, apparently it was on the best scale in terms of being able to recover in the shortest amount of time, and what he showed against Illawarra that was most evident was his organisational skills. He brings a sense of calm to the group particularly when the game gets tough or goes against us. 

"His ability just to put people in spots, see what's going on, run the appropriate play at the appropriate time which gives everyone a sense of direction. With that comes certainty and calmness. When he's not on the floor and when things go against us, we can get a little bit chaotic and disrupted. He really does a great job with that and in terms of huddles and ensuring everybody is on the same page, that's where he brings tremendous value to this group for sure."

Taipans coach Mike Kelly noticed a significant drop off from the Snakes in the second to third quarters on Friday night against the Wildcats, but the positive is it provided some clear teaching points as they now look to tidy up things against the Bullets.

"I did like our second quarter. We played really hard, we tried to defend even though we still gave up some open looks, we rebounded the ball and we were able to push when we got stops and that translated into some good looks at the offensive end," Kelly said.

"Flip that around to the third quarter and Perth did a good job of pressuring us a little bit which changed our flow offensively, and we didn’t run a lot in the second half. Perth's defence had something to do with us not shooting as well from three. Some of our shots were contested that we missed and we got some good looks, and I'm picturing Mirko and Cam knocking down some threes, and Scott got some good looks and Fab got some open shots. 

"I think if we have open shots from three we are going to continue to take them. If we move the ball and run some offence that we will get good look whether it's inside or outside the three. We didn’t do that in the third quarter so it wasn’t so much that we missed shots or that we should change what we are looking for, it's more we should run some offence so that we get better shots."

Now looking ahead to Sunday's clash with the Bullets, Kelly is just desperate to get his team closer to finding that elusive 40 minutes of consistent basketball.

"I think we need to learn and continue to strive for playing 40 really good minutes," Kelly said.

"We had some good flashes there against Perth and we had some good physical defence for a while, and boxed out and rebounded the ball. We need to extend that over 40 minutes and that's what we'll look to do now against Brisbane."