R17 Preview: Perth Wildcats vs New Zealand Breakers

Sunday, May 9, 2021

New Zealand have pinched two thrillers on the trot from Perth, but the Cotton-Mooney combo hummed in Melbourne and the Cats are primed for vengeance to keep them within reach of the minor premiership.

When: 5pm (AEDT), Sunday 9 May

Where: RAC Arena, Perth

Broadcast: SBS Viceland; Sky Sports NZ; SBS On Demand; Twitch

The last time
New Zealand 86 (Randolph 19, Abercrombie 14, T Webster 12) d Perth 84 (Mooney 25, Blanchfield 21, Cotton 19), Round 16, Silverdome, Launceston

In the latest instalment of what seems like hundreds of classics between these two teams, Levi Randolph was the hero at the death, capitalising on a rare defensive slip-up from Mitch Norton to hit a tough game-winner. Before that, Tai Webster and John Mooney had made clutch plays, and afterwards Bryce Cotton almost added another chapter to his book of heroics, but his game-winning triple attempt went wide and the Breakers stayed alive.

The now
They're on life support now though, four games behind the Phoenix with just 10 to play, along with a percentage deficit of 4.04. Following this trip to Perth, however, their next four games are against SE Melbourne, Illawarra and Sydney twice, so if they can pinch their third win off the Cats for the season there is still the slightest glimmer of hope for the run home, but the likely absence of Randolph and Corey Webster on Sunday make this a tough ask.

There was something ominous about the defending champs on Wednesday, holding United to just 41 per cent from the field, 9 o-boards from 36 misses and 9 free-throw attempts, while forcing 19 turnovers. They dominated points in the paint, second chance points and points from turnovers in a championship-like display they’ll be desperate to repeat on New Zealand to move back within 1.5 games of Melbourne ahead of next Thursday’s rematch.

The stats

- Perth average 5.3 three-point makes from 18.2 attempts against the Breakers, compared to 9.8 from 30 against the rest of the NBL

- The Wildcats pull in just 9 offensive rebounds against NZ, which is 26 per cent of the available o-boards. Against other teams those numbers are 12.2 and 33 per cent

- New Zealand won points from turnovers 10-5 in their Round 16 win over Perth. In their first three meetings, the Wildcats won that category 67-28

- In two wins over Perth, the Breakers shot 63 per cent from two-point land, including 10-of-16 from mid-range. In two losses, they hit 52 per cent from inside the arc, and just 4-of-9 from mid-range

The key men

Tom Abercrombie – Bryce Cotton’s shooting slump is no secret, his inconsistent technique telling the story of a man sadly lacking rhythm, but what Abercrombie and the Breakers have done well in the past two meetings is restrict him to just 36 per cent from two-point range, well down on his 52 per cent in the teams’ first two meetings, both won by Perth.

Cotton has also shot just 5 free throws in the two NZ wins, compared to 23 in the first two games of the season series, showing the job Abercrombie has done chasing over screens to force the MVP to attack the paint, and the job of Colton Iverson and Co to make him shoot over a hand. Expect plenty of re-screens on Sunday to make NZ guard him a different way.

John Mooney – Of course, Melbourne brutally exposed the Breakers’ ball-screen defence in Round 16 thanks to Jo Lual-Acuil’s short rolls, quality decision making and ability to finish or find the open man. Perth had similar success making Mooney their focus in the last meeting with NZ, the sneaky MVP contender scoring 25 points at 67 per cent, all inside the paint.

Mooney has averaged a remarkable 20 points, 11.8 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 steals in his past five games, shooting 64 per cent from the field and 7-of-11 from long range. He’s only taken two three-point attempts in three games against the Breakers, and Dan Shamir’s men must choose between taking away his three-ball or letting him dominate on the roll again.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">M?NEY from M??NEY!<br><br>John has now recorded a double-double against every team in the league. 21 points + 13 boards and counting! <a href="https://t.co/vhMLUbf3pI">pic.twitter.com/vhMLUbf3pI</a></p>— Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1389894688421736450?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 5, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The quotes
Expect the unexpected has been a pretty good slogan for NBL21, and indeed for the Perth-New Zealand season series.

You could just as easily invoke a bit of Forrest Gump to describe what these rivals produce game after game – it’s like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re going to get next.

That was certainly the case last week in Launceston, with three clutch buckets inside the final 10 seconds, culminating in what seemed like a stunning match-winner from Levi Randolph.

Not so fast. Upon review, the referees put 0.5 seconds back on the clock, and you know that’s more than enough time when Bryce Cotton is involved.

“And he got his look, right?” Breakers boss Dan Shamir smiled afterwards.

“He probably had a better look than the previous game when he made the shot and took it to overtime. This is the beauty of the game, the little things that decide games at the end.

“Overall it was a good game for everybody who watched it, great game winner by Levi, just a good basketball game."

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">DOWN TO THE WIRE!<br><br>What a clutch play by Levi Randolph to secure the Breakers an 86-84 win over the Wildcats! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL</a><br><br>? via <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NBL</a> <a href="https://t.co/cH8gxQTqNt">pic.twitter.com/cH8gxQTqNt</a></p>— ESPN Australia & NZ (@ESPNAusNZ) <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ/status/1388426516069961732?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 1, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

After the Wildcats broke open the teams’ first meeting in the third quarter, the three encores have been gripping contests that could have gone either way, in the tradition of the rivalry that first took hold with Rob Beveridge and Andrej Lemanis at the respective wheels.

The Breakers and Phoenix are the only teams to topple Perth twice this season, and New Zealand have done it by relentlessly chasing the Cats off the three-point line.

In Round 16, Trevor Gleeson’s men managed just 12 attempts from the arc – down from their average of 28.2 – and incredibly made just one.

“We played hard, but when you shoot (less than) 10 per cent from the three-point line you’re not going to win too many games and we certainly were in it.

“We played what's in front of us, there was a lot of action going towards the rim, we had (12 three-point attempts), we weren’t shooting them, we weren’t making them, so we had to find scoring elsewhere.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">PERFECT PASS ? PERFECT FINISH <a href="https://t.co/ggwBrRFe9P">pic.twitter.com/ggwBrRFe9P</a></p>— Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1388413738533801995?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 1, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

By picking that poison, the Breakers have been able to hold their defensive structure, leaving Colton Iverson and Co in defensive rebounding position, and limiting the number of long rebounds off triple attempts that invariably find their way to Cotton or Blanchfield for an open look.

Where the Wildcats had struggled with that strategy in the previous two contests, they thrived offensively in Launceston, even if they didn’t get the W.

“The end of the game there are certain things we’d like to have again, but I was very proud how we adjusted to some schemes we put in during the week,” point guard Mitch Norton said.

“I thought we did pretty well with that, obviously coming away with a loss hurts, but there was a lot to learn from and a lot to like.”

Perth shot 55 per cent from two-point range and scored 56 points in the paint as Mooney and Blanchfield combined to go 20-of-27 inside the arc, with all of those makes inside the key.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Game-high 19 points for Blanch! <a href="https://t.co/sEKfdLim0h">pic.twitter.com/sEKfdLim0h</a></p>— Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1388416220009881600?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 1, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Despite the win, the ball is now in New Zealand’s court to make some adjustments at both ends of the floor.

Randolph has been the key against the Cats, scoring 42 points on 17-of-23 from two-point land in the two wins, and if he is sidelined NZ will need Tai Webster on top of his penetration game.

At the defensive end, how do the Breakers solve the riddle of Perth’s inside dominance without unlocking their three-point game?

“Tom did a great job on Bryce Cotton again, he's a guy who is tough to limit and you have to spend a lot of energy, and Tom did that for us. He was 8-of-24 so he had to work hard for a lot of his looks,” Shamir said.

“We gave up a few backdoor cuts, and obviously Mooney and Todd Blanchfield had good games today, you invest a lot of energy and attention and coverages on Cotton and you pay somewhere else.”