Preview: SE Melbourne v New Zealand

Saturday, October 15, 2022

SE Melbourne have three of their four key absentees back as they welcome a New Zealand side with a newly-discovered penchant for defence.

When: 8pm (AEDT), Saturday 15 October
Where: John Cain Arena, Melbourne
Broadcast: ESPN; Foxtel; Kayo; Sky Sports NZ

Who won the last time?

South East Melbourne 99 (Munford 25, Qi 22, Le’afa 18) d New Zealand 89 (Dieng 22, Abercrombie 17, Wetzell 14) – Round 19, NBL22 at Bendigo Basketball Stadium

The Breakers’ horror NBL22 season went from bad to worse in Bendigo, the Phoenix building a 24-point third-quarter lead as Zhou Qi proved a handful inside and Xavier Munford had a day out with 25 points at 57 per cent and eight assists. New Zealand added some respectability to the scoreboard late, Ousmane Dieng continuing his charge up the NBA Draft board with 22 points, six rebounds and six assists off the bench.

What happened last game?

The nightmare of 11-straight losses ended in Round 2 as the Breakers finally returned home, scraping past Tasmania in a dour affair. No one on that side of the Tasman cared about the aesthetics though, as New Zealand held off the fast-finishing JackJumpers. The Phoenix were once again the slow finishers, continuing a worrying trend as a double-figure final-quarter lead turned into defeat. The good news is there are reinforcements on the way for Simon Mitchell’s men.

What’s working?

Defending the paint – Dan Shamir’s strategy of shutting down the three-point line left New Zealand vulnerable inside, coughing up a league-high 54 per cent on twos in NBL22. But things have changed under Mody Maor, the Breakers giving up 12.5 threes at 35 per cent – up from 7.7 over the previous two seasons – but allowing just 44 per cent on twos, and a league second-best 40 per cent defensive field-goal percentage, down from 48 last season.

Inside beasts – The Phoenix are making a mere 5.7 three-pointers at 27 per cent, so it’s a good thing their beasts are excelling. They racked up 52 points in the paint and 67 points from ‘ones and twos’ against Cairns, shooting 54 per cent inside with Mitch Creek and Alan Williams combining for 18/23. Unfortunately, the rest of the squad went 8/25, but Zhou Qi’s huge presence, and Ryan Broekhoff and Trey Kell spreading the floor, should help.

What needs stopping?

Fade-outs – Troublingly for South East Melbourne, they have been outscored by 17 points in the final four minutes of their three contests to date, sparking memories of last year’s string of fade-outs that cost them a playoff berth. Amazingly, they have made just five field goals in those 12 minutes, and Simon Mitchell will be praying Kell is as good as advertised as a closer.

Who knows – The Breakers can do all the scouting they want, but no one really knows what a Phoenix team with Broekhoff spreading the floor, Zhou manning the middle and Kell creating off on-balls will look like. And how will that impact Williams, Creek and Kyle Adnam’s touches? Expect Izayah Le’afa to be in Kell’s shorts as he comes up against his former team.

Who’s matching up?

Alan Williams v Dererk Pardon – The bonus from South East Melbourne’s injuries is the opportunities it has created for Williams, who has been outstanding with 31 points, 19 rebounds and nine assists in 46 minutes the past two games. After a quality NBL debut in Melbourne, Pardon incredibly took just one shot last week against Tassie, and New Zealand need to get their centre the ball on the roll to put heat on Williams and induce foul trouble.

Mitch Creek v Jarell Brantley – Creek burned the Taipans for 27 points on 12/15 shooting inside, and this will be an excellent test of Brantley’s versatile defence, which has stood up well so far. Without much help, Mitch wore down against Cairns, but with key troops back in uniform, New Zealand will need to wear him down at the defensive end. Given Brantley is shooting 67 per cent but taking just 7.5 shots, getting him more of the ball is a good idea.

Trey Kell v Barry Brown – Finally we get to see the man South East Melbourne’s brains trust were so delighted to lock away in the off-season. He was smooth and efficient in Italy last season, averaging 15.3ppg at 40 per cent from deep, but is an unknown at NBL level just yet. His defence will get tested straight up defending Brown, whose long loping strides and quick change of direction have delivered 18ppg, but whose 36 per cent conversion needs lifting.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Barry takes his defender for a dance!<br><br>Sky Sport 4<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNBREAKABLE?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNBREAKABLE</a> <a href="https://t.co/2FbJppd1YP">pic.twitter.com/2FbJppd1YP</a></p>— Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1578285109480140800?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 7, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

New Breakers coach Mody Maor would see promising signs as he reviews his team’s offence to start the new NBL season.

New Zealand are shooting the ball at a second-ranked 47 per cent from the field and scoring 60ppg from ‘ones and twos’, up from 51.9 last season.

If they can lift their three-point shooting up from a wayward 28 per cent – which is quite likely given solid shooters in Barry Brown, Tom Vodanovich and Will McDowell-White are all shooting in the teens – then some winning scores are sure to follow.

That isn’t Maor’s priority though, because scoring and shooting percentages come and go across periods of the season, as was the case against Tasmania last round when they managed just 71 points.

“When your anchor is your defence there are no bad days and you can kind of weather the storm through the challenges that come,” he told Stuff NZ media.

“That’s what we saw. We dug deep, got stops, and it was enough.”

With captain Tom Abercrombie sidelined, new import Jarell Brantley has stepped up enormously as the team’s defensive leader and the enthusiastic American is loving his teammates’ energy.

“That’s the kind of team we have,” Brantley said.

“Even when the offence isn’t going well we still can defend. We’ve got a skilled team, a talented team, with a lot of versatility on both sides of the ball. It’s special being with this group.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">JB put on a show for the home crowd with 19pts and 6rbs on 7/8 fg!<a href="https://twitter.com/PhotosportNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@PhotosportNZ</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNBREAKABLE?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNBREAKABLE</a> <a href="https://t.co/5pEE4HWs5d">pic.twitter.com/5pEE4HWs5d</a></p>— Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1578502607282196481?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 7, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Brantley has been important at both ends with his ability to play inside and out, sliding between the three and four spots covering the huge hole the underrated Abercrombie leaves.

“We have a little bit of a structural issue. We’re either big with Jarrell Brantley at the three, or really small,” coach Maor said.

“Until we get Tom back, there is going to be a trade-off.”

A close to full-strength Phoenix is not a side you want to make that trade-off against.

Zhou Qi’s return means they can go massive at times with Williams at power forward, they can roll out their expected, dangerous forward line-up of Mitch Creek and Ryan Broekhoff, or they can even slot Creek to the three spot.

Early on, expect Brantley and Broekhoff to go head-to-head in an intriguing battle.

Listening to the former Boomer and Maverick speak during the week, there is a huge sense of anticipation in the Phoenix camp, who almost feel like they are starting the season afresh with Kell, Qi and Broekhoff finally on board.

“I'm really excited to get out there with my teammates, it’s been an interrupted and a bit of a bad pre-season for me, but I've had a few good weeks of training , I'm feeling fresh and ready to go,” Broekhoff said.

“It will take some time to build some chemistry and get to know each other but it’s just exciting, we've got a really strong roster, now it’s just time to put it all out on the court.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Trey Kell with the POSTER!<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/7DAYSMagicMoment?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#7DAYSMagicMoment</a> <a href="https://t.co/aTBOffEeqR">pic.twitter.com/aTBOffEeqR</a></p>— Turkish Airlines EuroLeague (@EuroLeague) <a href="https://twitter.com/EuroLeague/status/1484584088891711497?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 21, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Shooting guard Trey Kell doesn’t sound like he plans on taking any time to get his new club back into playoff contention.

“We asked a lot of the young guys, they did a great job while we were out but at the same time we were brought in with expectations for us to be a big part of the team,” Kell said.

“It will be fun to get out there with everybody again, we've got two losses in a row so try to stop it at two and get back on the winner’s side.”

Yet while there is excitement for those returning, for the players who experienced that late-game capitulation against Cairns there is a genuine chip on the shoulder to reward the Fire Pit faithful better this time around.

“It's extremely disappointing,” Williams said.

“Any time you get a lead like that, get the crowd into it like that, and not be able to finish the job is very disappointing, especially for us in that locker room. We know what we let slip out of our hands today, it’s something you can’t get back.

“Fresh bodies are coming in and we’ll get a new look and get some more depth and I think it will do well for us.”