Preview: Perth vs Tasmania – NBL Playoffs, Game 1

Thursday, March 7, 2024

Who can take an advantage into MyState Bank Arena, and who will be left with their backs against the wall?

Friday, March 8 at 9:30pm AEDT | RAC Arena

Watch: Live on ESPN via Kayo | 10 Peach 10 Play - International viewership details
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Perth
Damian Martin has called on Wildcats captain Jesse Wagstaff to play on in NBL25, not only because of his strong contributions this season, but also to cement his legacy as an all-time great at the club.

JackJumpers head coach Scott Roth has said “it’s tough to defend Bryce Cotton if you can’t touch him”, and praised the Wildcats’ star’s ability to draw fouls while stating his side needs to be more disciplined defensively.

Hyrum Harris is set to play his first career Finals game after 93 games in the NBL, but he said he is more focused on getting through Game 1 and challenging for the ultimate prize.

Ben Henshall believes he can implement the ‘do everything to a gold standard’ mentality he picked up while on Boomers duty with the Wildcats.

Tasmania
The JackJumpers have revealed Marcus Lee’s shoulder injury is not as bad as first feared, and he is ‘day-to-day’ ahead of Game 1 of the series against Perth.

Anthony Drmic says his side hasn’t changed any of its processes ahead of the Playoffs, and that Tasmania has trained hard all season, so it doesn’t matter what stage of the season it is.

Liam Santamaria labelled the JackJumpers as the NBL’s form side on NBL Now, and said the JackJumpers could be “starting to sniff a championship”, and that the Wildcats should be nervous ahead of Game 1.

Perth
72-86 loss to Tasmania
92-108 loss to Illawarra
117-88 win over Cairns

Tasmania
92-76 win over Illawarra
86-72 win over Perth
94-76 win over South East Melbourne

Bryce Cotton
It doesn’t matter what the context of the game, the season, the opposition or the Wildcats is, Bryce Cotton is always a player to keep an eye on. But the fact this will be his first game since being named the NBL’s MVP for the fourth time in his career, coupled with Scott Roth’s recent comments on how well the Wildcats star draws fouls, make how he plays in this game an even more intriguing equation.

Cotton was absent for Perth’s final round defeat to Tasmania due to a knee injury, which has led some people to declare that recent result has little to no bearing on the upcoming Playoff Series. A Bryce-less Perth is still a dangerous side, but they’re hobbled in comparison to when he’s involved and firing.

Scott Roth spoke to SEN earlier in the week and stated “it’s hard to defend Cotton if you can’t touch him”, and went on to praise the superstar’s ability to make the referees make a call. Roth, of course, has a deep insight into Cotton’s game due to his status as an assistant coach at the Wildcats prior to taking the JackJumpers role.

Cotton shot 29 more free throws (214) than any other player in the competition and made 21 (190) more than anyone else. Nathan Sobey sits second in both categories. We’ve already seen how calm, clutch free throw shooting can change the face of the Finals in Justin Robinson’s Play-In performance against the Breakers where he hit all 14 of his attempts.

If there’s two things we’ve learned about Bryce Cotton over his NBL journey it’s how he has an innate ability to step up in the big moments, and he has multiple ways of putting defences to the sword and find ways to score.

Whether it’s at the basket, from the free throw line, or from three-point range, the JackJumpers will have their work cut out in stopping Cotton in the Playoff Series opener, and if they do – will they have found the blueprint for a series win?

“Bryce, I was lucky enough to be around him, he’s a tremendous scorer, MVP, multiple championships, but he is difficult to deal with when you can’t touch him. It’s very difficult to guard someone who is getting a lot of incidental fouls over the course of the game and our foul discipline will have to be really on point… we have to take care of ourselves and have great foul discipline, it is one of our Achilles heels that we constantly talk about it.” – Scott Roth on SEN.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Bryce Cotton’s sporting greatness extends beyond basketball ??<br><br>Listen to NBL Now: <a href="https://t.co/uyEBuhY1BO">https://t.co/uyEBuhY1BO</a> <a href="https://t.co/9ERgepaWug">pic.twitter.com/9ERgepaWug</a></p>— NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1760114400361689557?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 21, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Will Magnay
For all the false starts and injuries Will Magnay has experienced over his professional career to date, last week’s Seeding Qualifier against Illawarra was a perfect snapshot of just how incredible he can be on both ends of the floor when given a clean run.

It didn’t matter that he was up against fringe Boomer Sam Froling. It didn’t matter that Marcus Lee exited the game after 22 seconds with a shoulder injury. It didn’t matter what the stage was, what the pressure was, or the fact Tasmania’s season could have been on the line. Will Magnay was an imperious, unstoppable force.

His 25 points and four blocks took the headlines, but his pair of steals and four offensive rebounds somewhat flew under the radar in what was one of the most dominant individual performances in recent NBL memory. He was a titan in front of the MyState Bank Arena crowd, and he was unstoppable.

Those 30 minutes were the most he’s played in a game all season, and with Marcus Lee still listed as day-to-day, the role the JackJumpers’ usual starting center will play in the opening game of this series is murky.

Derek Rucker called for Lee to strip his game back to the bare bones and give 15 minutes of strong basketball over intermittent periods to allow Magnay short breathers across the game.

Another dimension to this game is it's Magnay's Finals return to Perth, with whom he tasted Championship Series defeat with against Melbourne United.

Keanu Pinder and Alexandre Sarr are as equally a dangerous post pair as Magnay and Lee. While the Wildcats pair are both great defenders in their own right – and Magnay and Lee are strong offensive threats - it’s almost a case of offence first vs defence first in the post.

Scott Roth will be hard-pressed to give Magnay any fewer than the 30 minutes he played against Illawarra purely because he was so dominant. The two leading questions heading into this clash and Magnay both have little evidence to procure an answer to though.

How will Tasmania manage with an absent or injured Lee, and can Magnay maintain a higher game load if Lee isn’t fit to play?

“This is the first time we’ve seen him play extended minutes like this … the main thing is can he play these types of minutes and be effective? He comes out and gives them the performance, almost, of his career when they needed it most. He’s starting to put it all together and if he plays like this that takes the burden off Marcus Lee having to recover quickly.” – Derek Rucker on the Coca-Cola Cool Down.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">THAT. IS. HUGE.<br><br>Will Magnay catches a BODY! <br><br>Watch the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL</a> Finals LIVE on ESPN! ? <a href="https://t.co/1dz43buEGD">pic.twitter.com/1dz43buEGD</a></p>— ESPN Australia & NZ (@ESPNAusNZ) <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ/status/1762756034693873727?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 28, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Tai Webster vs Milton Doyle
Both Tai Webster and Milton Doyle have the ability to be scoring superstars for their teams, but they’ve both taken on the role of creative forces within their teams across the duration of NBL24.

Webster’s switch into a pass-first, high-energy point guard has come out of necessity, after all, no one but Bryce Cotton is going to be the first option on any team that has Bryce Cotton. The New Zealand-born guard has shown his true colours this season and become a much-loved and integral member of the Wildcats.

Doyle, on the other hand, has had plenty of the explosive scoring performances that saw him take the NBL by storm last season, but the shift in Tasmania’s offensive game plan has seen him be able to more smoothly hand off some of the scoring load to the likes of Jack McVeigh and Jordon Crawford when his shot hasn’t been falling.

Webster’s assist numbers of 2.6 per game may not jump off the page, however his importance to Perth’s offence goes far beyond the box score. Only Cotton and forward Kristian Doollittle have a better assist/turnover ratio of players on Perth’s roster who have dished at least five assists for the season.

For Doyle, his ability to switch into that passing role is no more perfectly personified than Tasmania’s Seeding Qualifier win over Illawarra. He only scored five points on 2-11 shooting, but he dished 10 assists en route to the win.

Given their comparable sizes, it’s entirely likely that Webster is the first player thrown at Doyle in this game. How Tasmania defends Cotton is a little murkier, but Doyle will almost certainly spend an extended period of time defending Webster as well.

All four likely starting guards – Webster, Doyle, Cotton and Crawford – will have crucial roles to play on both ends of the floor, but such is the versatility and switchability of Doyle and Webster, they could be the pair that holds the keys to victory.

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Tai Webster and Milton Doyle.