Preview: New Zealand v Cairns (Round 15)

When: 2pm (AEDT), Sunday 15 January, 2023
Where: Spark Arena, Auckland
Broadcast: 10 Peach; 10 Play; ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ
LIVE SCORES & STATS

Who won last time?

New Zealand 82 (Brantley 20, Brown 20, Pardon 15) d Cairns 71 (Waardenburg 15, Pinder 14, McCall 13) – Round 8 at Cairns Convention Centre

For the second straight time the Taipans jumped New Zealand in the Snakepit, but the Breakers applied some serious defensive screws in the second term, holding Cairns to six points in the opening 9:50 of the quarter, and the visitors continued to dominate in the third. But Tahjere McCall and Shannon Scott sparked a furious Snakes run that had them within a point with 5:14 to play in the game, only for massive triples from Izayah Le’afa, Jarell Brantley and Barry Brown to deliver NZ consecutive road wins in Cairns.

What happened last game?

The road hasn’t been so good for the Breakers lately, their December COVID break resulting in four games in eight days, for three losses, leading into Sunday. They lacked zip against Melbourne, and will be hoping two nights in their own beds will bring rejuvenation. Cairns have played five games in 14 days without Keanu Pinder and remarkably won them all, but on Friday they were the latest team to have a near-death experience against the plucky Hawks.

What’s working?

Locking down Snakes – Cairns have scored 67.5ppg at 37 per cent against New Zealand this season, compared to 90.2ppg at 44 per cent against the rest of the league. The Breakers have allowed the Taipans only 16.5 twos at 45 per cent and 8.0 triples at 27 per cent, well down from their rest-of-league averages of 21.2 deuces at 54 per cent and 10.5 treys at 33 per cent. Impressively, NZ have also pulled in 77 per cent of their d-boards in those games.

Getting to the stripe – Another key area has been the Breakers putting the Taipans to the foul line just 16.5 times per night in the season series. While the disciplined Wildcats have only gifted the Snakes 16 free throws in two games, against all other teams Cairns have averaged 22.7. In the five games without Pinder they are +38 on free-throw attempts, and +38 on points from the foul line in five wins by a total of 50 points.

What needs stopping?

Tahjere McCall – When the Taipans scored just 64 points in a brutal Cairns-New Zealand battle in Round 4, McCall was sidelined. In the rematch he was just second game back and shot 5/13. He’s a different beast now and the Snakes’ free-throw king, shooting 82 in the past 11 games while averaging 19.6ppg, 6.3rpg, 4.5apg and 1.8 steals. New Zealand haven’t yet dealt with primetime McCall, and that could be a job for the length of Tom Abercrombie.

Jarrell Brantley – The Breakers’ power forward only built on his reputation by getting off the plane from Perth and crushing in Christchurch, dropping 17 points at 60 per cent and 2/3 from deep to go with five boards and two steals as New Zealand were +1 in his 23:27 and -13 with him resting. That bench time was due to foul trouble, and JB needs to refine his front-foot, hands-on defence to avoid the cheap ones that leave his team without his two-way game.

Who’s missing key men?

Barry Brown and Keanu Pinder remain sidelined for this game.

Who’s matching up?

Will McDowell-White v Shannon Scott – WMW was outstanding in his return game in Perth, but the sophomore blues struck on a two-day turnaround with 2/11 shooting and five turnovers against United. His control is a key to getting the Breakers’ bigs involved, and Scott will look to emulate the pressure of Shea Ili and Rayjon Tucker, while continuing the form that’s delivered 17.4ppg at 58 per cent from deep and 5.4apg in his past five outings.

Dererk Pardon v Sam Waardenburg – Pardon’s grabbed 16 defensive rebounds in two games against Cairns as NZ dominated the d-boards, and led the clampdown that kept Pinder to 10ppg at 42 per cent. Big Sam has upped his glass game with KP sidelined, his past four delivering 7.5rpg including 6.3 d-boards, up from his prior averages of 3.5 and 2.9. Sunday’s question is can he execute the ball-screen D needed to negate Pardon’s roll game?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">How good is it having this guy run your point!?? <a href="https://t.co/sLjcwqVJ27">pic.twitter.com/sLjcwqVJ27</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1612779483806986240?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 10, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

During the second term on Thursday, two of the ceiling lights at Christchurch Arena went out.

While it made little difference inside the building, Breakers coach Mody Maor was pleased to hear about it.

“Honestly I didn’t notice, but if that’s the reason we missed shots then great, that means next time we’ll make it so I’ll take it,” he joked post-game.

The Breakers shot just 13/36 per cent from two-point range (36%) as Melbourne forced its guards into indecision on penetration, with Marcus Lee’s length a big factor.

While no doubt backing up from a game in Perth less than 48 hours earlier had its impact, coach Maor knows they also struggled for answers to the United defence.

“Playing three games in five days is a real challenge and I think for big stretches in the game you saw our guys really, really tried. They really, really competed. We didn’t have all the solutions,” Maor said.

“Obviously we need to find more solutions on offence. Our defence in the second half was very good, I think we held them to 34 or 35 points in the second half, that’s good, Melbourne have been firing on all cylinders on offence.

“We need to find more solutions on offence and get some more easy shots. That’s 100 per cent on me.”

With Barry Brown sidelined, the performance highlighted the importance of emerging local guards Izayah Le’afa and Will McDowell-White.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Le&#39;afa with the hot hand in the third <a href="https://t.co/XF9ZpURpLA">pic.twitter.com/XF9ZpURpLA</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1613447415788621826?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 12, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Both players have been impressive executing ball-screen action this season, but they struggled with Melbourne’s covers, shooting a combined 4/12 on twos and having six turnovers to seven dimes.

“My thoughts on Izayah have been the same for a very long time and he knows them. He’s been very good for us,” Maor said.

“He’s made a leap in almost evert aspect of the game since joining us but we’re not satisfied, and there’s more in him in every aspect. For us to achieve great things Izayah needs to be great.”

True to form, Le’afa’s response to back-to-back losses is to get more physical, even if it is the Breakers’ fifth game in 11 days.

“It’s a test and we've got to do a better job, come out stronger and more physical and I'm sure we’ll do that on Sunday,” he said.

“Defensively in that first half we were giving up easy looks and looks that we didn’t want them to get and they made us pay.”

New Zealand isn't the only team facing travel challenges, however, the Taipans having to travel 4000km after Friday’s tough win over Illawarra, arriving in Auckland late at night just 14 hours before tip-off.

“It poses it’s challenges but from my standpoint I'm ecstatic about the timing of it. You can look to try and make excuses about why we might be flat or sore or hurt or whatever it may been, but this is where it becomes a mental game,” coach Adam Forde said.

“We've done a great job this week with our high-performance team preparing for how the next 40 hours works, knowing that 40 hours from now we’re jump ball against New Zealand.

“What we do individually and as a team between now and then is going to best prepare ourselves for how that’s going to look. It’s an exciting challenge, you play into the mental side of it which has come at the perfect time for us.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">DJ steals it ?? DJ splashes it!<br>That&#39;s his THIRD triple of the night!<br><br>? <a href="https://twitter.com/Dj_hogg1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Dj_hogg1</a> | ? <a href="https://twitter.com/espn?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@espn</a> <a href="https://t.co/ReCx6kDNkZ">pic.twitter.com/ReCx6kDNkZ</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1613828441182441472?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 13, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

A win will move the Snakes 2.5 games clear in second place and put one foot squarely in the semi-finals, but Cairns haven't had the answers for the Breakers’ physicality so far this season.

“New Zealand’s tough and we haven't beaten them yet,” Forde said.

“Twice we've built a lead and then we lost it down the stretch and we’re going into the joint without Keanu, so we’re going to rely on everybody to step up and get a deserving win.”

There is an ace up Forde’s sleeve though, with Tahj McCall fit and firing like he wasn’t earlier in the season, and his disruptive defence and high-speed offence is going to be critical in breaking the Breakers’ shackles.

“That’s Tahj right, that’s the energy that he brings,” Forde said after his star guard’s double-double with four steals against the Hawks.

“He closed it out brilliantly for us, and that’s why he’s the gaffer.”

New Zealand will again be without their closer in Barry Brown, who has averaged 22ppg against Cairns, but coach Maor has belief in the rest of his line-up to turn around their run of five losses from their past seven games.

“All of our players are important. There isn’t one player in our rotation if you take out I say, ‘No problem, we can keep going’,” he said.

“We’ve been through games without Barry and won, and we will go through games without Barry and win again.”