Preview: Melbourne v Tasmania (Round 8)

When: 8pm (AEDT), Saturday 26 November, 2022
Where: John Cain Arena, Melbourne
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ
LIVE SCORES & STATS

Who won the last time?

Tasmania 74 (Kelly 13, Krslovic 13, Magette 10) d Melbourne 64 (Rathan-Mayes 18, Tucker 15) – Round 3 at John Cain Arena

This was a beatdown from Tasmania to confirm that last season’s semi-final win at John Cain Arena was no fluke. Their lead reached double figures early in the second term and extended to 16, before Xavier-Rathan Mayes led a furious fightback that tied the scores in the third. It was all JackJumpers from there though, Melbourne held to 22 points in the final 17 minutes as their visitors cruised to victory despite an off-shooting afternoon.

What happened last game?

Tassie couldn’t throw a beach ball into the ocean last week against New Zealand either, and not just because Launceston is inland. Take out the returning Clint Steindl and the JJs were a pitiful 2/19 from deep, while aside from Rashard Kelly and Jack McVeigh they were 12/32 inside. Things were also ugly for Melbourne last round with too few contributors, held to a Throwdown-low 69 points and trailing by as many as 24 during the third period.

What’s working?

The import duo – While Melbourne struggled to score last time against Tasmania, Rathan-Mayes and Rayjon Tucker combined for 33 points at 50 per cent and 4/9 from deep, while all their teammates managed just 31 points at 37 per cent and 3/13 outside. They outscored their teammates against South East Melbourne too, delivering 35 points at 50 per cent while the rest of the roster added 34 at 32 per cent. Melbourne need to find them some more helpers.

Pressure defence – Tassie held Barry Brown to 12 points at 33 per cent, kept the Breakers to 39 per cent and won points from turnovers 21-15 to tick some important boxes last round. The JackJumpers have now forced 34 turnovers in their past 60 minutes, from which they’ve generated 40 per cent of their score, an ominous sign for Melbourne given the Tasmanians have outscored them 46-24 on points from turnovers in their past two meetings.

What needs stopping?

Fouling – The JackJumpers put New Zealand to the line 36 times, and while Will Magnay should play more than 14 minutes this week, Melbourne must hit Marcus Lee and Isaac Humphries on the roll every chance they get. Melbourne went 0-2 last round by a combined 20 points and were outscored by 27 from the foul line. South East Melbourne shot 28 freebies and Adelaide 29 as United struggled to contain Alan Williams and Robert Franks. Lee should help inside, but they must also replace the ball pressure that’s absent without Shea Ili.

Glass roller-coaster – Tasmania are 4-1 when they score above 80 points and 1-5 when they don’t. Interestingly, in wins they hit 13.8 treys at 39 per cent and in losses 8.5 at 30 per cent, but their offensive rebounding numbers are near-identical and they score more second chance points in Ws, despite missing far fewer shots. That speaks to the organisation of their offence on good nights, but also tells a story of letting offensive struggles curb their effort plays, something that wasn’t the case last season.

Who’s matching up?

Rayjon Tucker v Milton Doyle – Tuck averaged 22.5ppg in Round 7 at 54 per cent from the field and 7/13 from deep in a super-impressive display. If Tassie again play off him and he shoots with confidence, Rayjon could be the game-breaker. Tuck helped keep Doyle to seven points on 3/8 shooting last time, and given the JackJumpers have averaged just 73ppg in their past four meetings with Melbourne’s they’ll look to get their import going early

Marcus Lee v Will Magnay – While Tassie have held United to 70.8ppg the past four games, Melbourne are +34 on points in the paint, shooting 55 per cent inside. Magnay could be a big factor to address that, while Dean Vickerman is hoping Lee will help answer his team’s frontcourt defensive woes, which has seen them leak 22.7ppg to star opposition bigs over the past six games, Mitch Creek scoring 20 points from ‘ones and twos’ alone last week.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">FLEX ON &#39;EM MAGNAY ??<br><br>This battle down low is absolutely electric ?<br><br>Catch the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL23?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL23</a> action live on ESPN via Kayo Sports and Foxtel. <a href="https://t.co/NmuaTIagcL">pic.twitter.com/NmuaTIagcL</a></p>&mdash; The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1593534764119531521?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 18, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

The droughts are back. Last round against South East Melbourne, the United offence simply didn’t look like scoring across significant stretches en route to just 46 points by three-quarter-time.

Even against the far-from-menacing Adelaide defence, they were held to 14 points in the third term – after rolling out 30 in the second stanza – to cough up another home loss.

“That’s been us,” coach Dean Vickerman said ruefully.

“We can play for periods of time with good energy and sharing the basketball, then we can go through periods where we can’t. I don’t have a great answer for you.”

There is a clear answer though.

“It’s been a constant theme without Shea Ili,” Vickerman said later.

“I think our offence looks so much different when he’s in the game for us, he’s our point guard, he’s our leader, he knows our stuff and I don’t think we’ve quite got that from other people at the moment.

“X has done a good job of putting points on the board to win us some games, but right now the ability of our point guards to bring everyone else into the game and get us organised is not good enough.”

The frustrating thing for United fans is their team’s offence appears to be flood or drought, looking world class in the moments they do play team basketball.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Rayjon Tucker is SPRINGY ?<br><br>Watch <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL23?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL23</a> live on ESPN via Kayo Sports and Foxtel ? <a href="https://t.co/HW8J45LkuV">pic.twitter.com/HW8J45LkuV</a></p>&mdash; The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1593864122562596864?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 19, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“We’ve seen it at different times, but we haven't seen a consistency with it, so we just have to continue to teach as best we can and we’ve really simplified, we’ve hardly run any of our package,” Vickerman said.

“When things aren't going right, when you go from simple to even more simple there’s even more of a problem.

“We've just got to look at four or five things that everybody knows, we can get into this if it’s disrupted and make sure the basketball moves and we screen the right way.”

It’s a worrying trend when Tasmania’s disruptive defence is next on the menu, especially given United struggled to execute through some JackJumper-like defence last round.

“Credit to the Phoenix, they disrupted tonight and our biggest offensive problem tonight was getting started with people in (the right) spots,” Vickerman said.

“They did a good job of taking it out of our point guard’s hands, or if he was carrying it, it was disrupted and there were so many possessions where it felt like we started out of position and then people just, when the pressure came, felt they had to attack it and short-cut our offences.”

While Tasmania were defensive maestros last season, ranking second in the league on debut, they sit just fifth so far in NBL23.

They’ve lost three of their past four outings, gifting opponents 27.3 free throws per game in that quartet of clashes.

As one of the most physical teams in the league, the change in officiating style in recent weeks is something the JJs must adjust to after man-handling opponents earlier in the season.

“Our focus has been on continuing our aggressiveness but be a little bit smarter with where we’re getting our fouls,” coach Scott Roth said.

“I think we've lost five of our six games and we've put people on the line over 20 times, when they’ve shot more than 20 foul shots we haven't been able to win so that’s obviously a focus.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">X from downtown. <br><br>?: ESPN via Kayo Sports or Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/0zYQqQjoVm">pic.twitter.com/0zYQqQjoVm</a></p>&mdash; Melbourne United (@MelbUnited) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnited/status/1593882778092724225?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 19, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The JackJumpers need to be able to deal with Rathan-Mayes coming off ball-screens, Isaac Humphries on the roll-out and Rayjon Tucker’s penetration from the top of the arc, but above all, there is one super-important target against United.

“Any time you play United Chris Goulding is the focus, he’s an Olympian and is an outstanding player, but they have multiple guys that can put up 20-25 points on any given night,” assistant coach Mark Radford said.

“If you don’t bring your best against Melbourne at Melbourne you can walk out of there with a miserable loss.“But we've played some really good basketball there so we’re excited to get back on that court and get back on the winner’s list.”

That’s a list Vickerman is desperate to return to, his team 5-7 and almost out of top two contention before the season’s half-way mark.

“I hate it. We've been a successful club and we just haven't been able to commit defensively or been able to share the basketball like we have in the past and I hate this feeling. I want us to come out and play United basketball again,” he said.

“I'm not even worried about ladder position or anything right now, it’s just playing the right way.

“There were so many possessions today where we over-dribbled it and didn’t move it, that’s the part, if we get back to playing the right way other things will take care of itself.”