Preview: Cairns v New Zealand (Round 4)

Friday, October 21, 2022

Adam Forde's road warriors are desperate to give the Cairns fans a show to remember, while New Zealand look to get their defence back on track after a tough night in Auckland.

When: 2pm (AEDT), Sunday 23 October, 2022
Where: Cairns Convention Centre
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; 10 Peach; 10 Play; Sky NZ

Who won last time?

Cairns 87 (Pinder 21, Deng 19, Machado 15) d New Zealand 77 (Wetzell 24, Dieng 18, Besson 16) – Round 18, NBL 22 at MyState Bank Arena, Hobart

In the NBL22 battle for the wooden spoon, played behind closed doors, it was Cairns who triumphed thanks to a combined 14 points and four assists from Scott Machado and Keanu Pinder in the final 11 minutes to help turn a two-point deficit into a 15-point lead and an easy victory. Yanni Wetzell and Ousmane Dieng were the standouts for New Zealand.

What happened last game?

The Taipans also made their move during the third term in Melbourne. Driven by some lockdown D along with 27 points and seven dimes in the final 17 minutes from Pinder and Shannon Scott, the Snakes snatched road W number four to equal their NBL22 tally. New Zealand looked out of legs against the Phoenix on Friday, giving up 99 points on 62 per cent shooting from the field after keeping their first three opponents in the thirties.

What’s working?

Belief – Sunday is New Zealand’s fifth game in 16 days, so they’ll need to dig deep against a Taipans team that has been unstoppable late in games, going +47 in the second halves of their four wins. Cairns’ cumulative deficits in those victories is 45 points, while their combined winning margin is 40, on average a 21.3-point turnaround. This team never believes they’re done, and that’s thanks to their defence, which holds opponents to 17.6 points in final stanzas.

Penetration – While the Breakers were smashed by South East Melbourne, leaking on D and shooting a paltry 6/29 from outside, they broke even with the Phoenix with 69 points from ‘ones and twos’, including 22 points at 67 per cent in the opening term on the back of their patient pick-and-roll game. So far this season the Kiwis are scoring 60.2ppg from ‘ones and twos’ at 56 per cent from inside the arc to rank third in both categories.

What needs stopping?

Stagnant offence – While the Breakers’ penetration off ball-screens was good at times, South East Melbourne did an improved job of slowing the ball and tagging the roller. In doing so they usually left Will McDowell-White or Izayah Le’afa open, who shot a combined 5/28 from the field and 3/14 from deep. Expect Mody Maor to get more cutters from the weakside on Sunday, so his lesser shooters aren’t left on an island when the shot’s not dropping.

Keanu Pinder – KP made quite the statement last week when he prevailed in his battle with the red-hot Xavier Cooks, then headed to Melbourne and unpeeled a 26-point, 10-rebound double that also featured five o-boards, three assists and three steals. The Taipans were -12 in the 10 minutes Pinder spent on the bench. So far in NBL23, 87 of his 95 points have been scored from within four feet or the foul line, so New Zealand must find a way to wall up the interior.

Who’s matching up?

Shannon Scott v Will McDowell-White – You’ve got to love WMW’s all-court game, averaging 6.8 rebounds, 4.6 assists and even 1.6 o-boards as a point guard. At the moment though, his 33 per cent field-goal shooting and 14 per cent clip from deep means he can be a liability when the ball’s out of his hands. Expect him to use plenty of re-screens on Sunday, and expect Scott to shadow him over most of those in what should be a great tussle.

DJ Hogg v Jarrell Brantley – This versatile pair of three/four men have brought their own unique styles to the league. The free-wheeling Hogg has hit just 4/24 from range the past three games though, and a similar clip will make it hard to get past the physical Brantley, who gets down and slides his feet on D. At the other end, Jarell is 18/28 on two-point baskets, and Hogg will have his work cut out matching JB’s strength on his patented back-down plays.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Don’t make Jarrell Brantley angry ? <br><br>Sky Sport 2<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNBREAKABLE?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNBREAKABLE</a> <a href="https://t.co/Lr1aOK2IeV">pic.twitter.com/Lr1aOK2IeV</a></p>— Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1582993889387900928?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 20, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Many pundits assessing the Cairns Taipans’ roster in pre-season would have noticed the same thing – a lack of veterans and NBL experience.

“We’re still building an identity, this is really important, out of our 13-man squad there’s eight brand new guys, and out of those guys there’s five rookies,” coach Adam Forde said after Round 1.

Yet somehow, the Snakes have stamped their mark early not only as the comeback kids, but also as down-the-stretch road warriors.

They did it again in Melbourne, looking down and out in the third term when trailing by 14, and on the precipice down six with 3:30 to play.

“In every game we've been down double-digits so we just said that this is no different, we've been here before and let's do it again,” Forde said.

Unassuming point guard Shannon Scott has rightfully received much credit for guiding his young side, but Forde revealed there is much more to it than that.

“This is out of the Lemanis book, we have no captain because you don’t want to burden someone with the responsibility to navigate every difficult situation,” he said.

“Keanu’s another one who leads by example, in terms of his work ethic and the way he goes about day-to-day.

“DJ’s a leader in his own way in terms of his experience and composure, and Shannon with his experience playing internationally all over the place.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Just throw it up, KP will find it ?<br><br>Taipans steal the lead heading into the fourth quarter! <a href="https://t.co/HxrbwHHyRC">pic.twitter.com/HxrbwHHyRC</a></p>— Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1583035532426125312?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 20, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

But what pleases Forde most is the leadership he’s receiving from players further down the roster, both on and off the court.

In Melbourne it was from Mirko Djeric, who had played a grand total of 13 minutes before that game.

The sharpshooter produced a giant second half where he was perfect from two-point range, the arc, the foul line and didn’t commit a turnover as Cairns went +12 with him on the floor.

“I've asked a lot from him in terms of things from last year I was not happy with; character issues, body language, all this stuff I said I'm not happy with and we needed to change, because there’s a vast difference in the way we represent the orange now,” Forde said.

“He has stepped up in every one of those categories I've asked for, and that’s what he’s embracing.

“We looked for his leadership when we’re down 14 in a hostile environment and he’s the guy to bring everybody in, and you know what, everybody listens.”

The ability of so many Taipans to set the tone and ensure their team is playing with the right energy has made them a scary proposition, and Breakers coach Mody Maor knows it.

“Cairns have a very distinctive style of play, up and down, high-paced, they shoot a lot of threes,” Maor said.

“We know them well, we know who they are, it will be our first time feeling them on the floor, and it will be a good challenge.”

After watching South East Melbourne put the Breakers to the sword, expect the Taipans to go for the jugular against a tired opponent, but Maor doesn’t think there will be a repeat of Thursday’s shocker.

“We’re better than this, we know we are better than this, we’ll learn from this and come back stronger in three days,” he said.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">DP goes up stairs! <br><br>Live on Sky Sport 2 now<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNBREAKABLE?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNBREAKABLE</a> <a href="https://t.co/4U2Xnw8WfT">pic.twitter.com/4U2Xnw8WfT</a></p>— Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1582987154929905664?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 20, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“The guys don’t really need a message. They know exactly what we’re facing. We knew from the get-go we have six games in 15 days. That's the hand we’ve been dealt and that's the one we’ll play.”

There’s a joker in Maor’s hand, and that’s the likely return of livewire shooting guard Barry Brown, the team’s leading scorer.

“I’m counting on him,” Maor said with a smile.

“Fresh legs will be a nice place to start. Barry’s important for us. He’s one of our key guards, we have high expectations for him every time he steps on the floor.”

Taipans fans have high expectations for their team, but while Forde’s young team is an astounding 4-0 on the road, their lone home appearance was a night to forget against Perth.

The Snakes have now lost 10 of their past 13 home games in a venue once feared by opposition teams, and Forde’s message for the Cairns community is a simple one.

“We 100 per cent owe you one. The boys are aware of it, we know we've got to build back that trust with the community, we've delivered absolute turds the last couple of years,” he said.

“This is something different, this is something special. Trust us, be patience with us, believe in us.”