Preview: Sydney v New Zealand (Game 1)

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Friday 3 March, 2023
Where: Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney
Broadcast: 10 Peach; 10 Play; ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ; Prime NZ
LIVE STATS AND BOX SCORE

Who won the last time?

New Zealand 93 (Brantley 30, McDowell-White 20, Loe 15) d Sydney 88 (Walton 17, Simon 16, Vasiljevic 12) – Round 16 at Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney

The bank was open late at Qudos on a thrilling Sunday afternoon in Round 16 as a fortuitous Jarrell Brantley triple off the backboard helped the Breakers snap their four-game drought. The huge win over the ladder-leading Kings was made all the more impressive by the fact Barry Brown Jr and Izayah Le’afa were both sidelined.

A meticulous 55-point opening half and the superb execution of Will McDowell-White and Brantley – who combined for 50 points, 15 rebounds and 15 assists – proved the difference as NZ finished the game on an 11-3 run as the Kings got caught up in a half-court grind.

What’s working?

Great early quarters – Sydney are 2-1 and +6 in this season series, and when they’ve had a chance to unleash the beast they’ve put the Breakers to the sword. In their best quarter of each contest – in the first, first and third terms respectively – the Kings have averaged 29 points and been +35 in those 30 minutes. In those periods, Xavier Cooks, Derrick Walton Jr and DJ Vasiljevic have averaged a combined 15.7 points, compared to 7.6 in the other nine.

Great late quarters – While New Zealand is -6 overall against the minor premiers, in final quarters they are +25. They've held Sydney to just 15.3 points compared to 23.4 across the other nine stanzas. The key is slowing the Kings, with Chase Buford’s men hitting at 54 per cent when they shoot in the first 12 seconds of their possession against the Breakers this season, compared to just 39 per cent when made to execute over longer periods against set defence.

What needs stopping?

The Breakers – The best way for Sydney to generate speed is by getting stops. In the Kings’ best three quarters against New Zealand they’ve averaged 13 points directly from defensive boards and turnovers, compared to just seven in final periods. In the past two fourth quarters, the Breakers have shot the ball at 58 per cent from the field and got to the foul line 9.5 times per term. Over the rest of the season series those numbers are 42 per cent and 4.3 free throws.

Xavier Cooks – The Cooks-Brantley battle is pivotal, the Kings are +25 with the MVP on the floor against NZ and -19 with him seated this season. Obviously, the Breakers must wall-up inside on the MVP, but how to do that without giving up outside looks? While New Zealand allow a league-low 32 per cent from deep, Sydney are dropping 39 per cent in the season series. In their best three quarters they’ve hit 8/15 (53%), compared to 4/17 (24%) in final periods.

Who’s missing key men?

Both teams are expected to be at full strength.

Who’s matching up?

Derrick Walton Jr v Will McDowell-White – Walton Jr was exceptional in the series with Cairns, and averaged 17.7ppg at 63 per cent and 6.7 assists. He's scored 38 points in the past two meetings with New Zealand, including getting to the foul line 12 times in Round 16. If the Breakers want to nullify his influence, they must jam the outlet passes that set him free in transition.

McDowell-White had 36 points and 18 assists in that pair of games against Sydney, and is likely to be public enemy number one for the Kings’ defence. After the former King dissected Tasmania’s defence in Game 1, they energetically denied him second touches in the offence so he couldn’t hit high ball-screens on the move, and expect Chase Buford to have paid attention.

Justin Simon v Barry Brown Jr – Who will Simon match-up on? His Game 3 shutdown of DJ Hogg was the stuff of legend, so will he be the man to cut off McDowell-White's supply? Or will he be saved to make life hard for Brown? The lightning-quick import scored 37 points in the team’s opening two meetings, and New Zealand is 9-3 when he scores 20 or more. At the other end, how do the Breakers guard Simon, who made Cairns pay for giving him too much latitude.

Tim Soares & Jordan Hunter v Dererk Pardon & Rob Loe – The unsung hero in Round 16 was Loe, who scored 10 points in the final four minutes of the second term by being in the right place at the right time to spark the Breakers’ match-winning 20-8 run. Loe was 3/3 from the arc that day, and his ability to draw Soares and Hunter from the paint - and Soares’ ability to do likewise to Pardon - will be an intriguing and pivotal part of the series.

DJ Vasiljevic v Izayah Le’afa – In Sydney’s best three quarters of this season series, Vasiljevic has nailed 3/5 from long range (60%). In the other nine periods he has been held to just 1/9 (11%). DJ’s 15 points on three triples were crucial in the Game 3 win over the Snakes, so expect Le’afa to be occupying his shorts as soon as he checks into the contest, with Rayan Rupert and Tom Abercrombie likely to share the duties on Walton Jr.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">SPLASH ZONE ft. DJ Vasiljevic <br><br>? Watch it Live &amp; free on ESPN via Kayo Freebies<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeTheKings?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeTheKings</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL23?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL23</a> <a href="https://t.co/sD1Xp91zYq">pic.twitter.com/sD1Xp91zYq</a></p>&mdash; Sydney Kings (@SydneyKings) <a href="https://twitter.com/SydneyKings/status/1627171168397537281?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 19, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Few would question that the Xavier Cooks-Jarell Brantley match-up is the most eagerly-anticipated contest of the 2023 NBL Championship Series.

For Brantley, who has tasted life in the NBA, it’s a battle he knows he can’t win alone.

“He’s good,” Brantley said.

“He does a lot of different things well. His versatility is who he is, and he’s found a way to maximise it. He’s definitely a dope player.

“Players like that, they’ll show up. He stuffs the stat-sheet and does a lot of different things to impact the game, but we do it by committee.”

While New Zealand’s aggressive, on-a-rope team defence is one of their great strengths, it actually opened up the door for Cooks to dominate the opening two clashes of the season series with outstanding decision-making on the short roll.

“They played their aggressive coverages, they were coming out after ball-screens,” coach Chase Buford said after the teams’ Round 6 clash.

“When we were able to get the ball to the roller I thought our ball movement at times in that first half was so good, hitting the slashers, kicking out for corner threes, I thought we got a lot of good looks playing behind their aggressive defence just sharing the ball.”

In 44 minutes across those opening two games, Cooks racked up 31 points at 70 per cent, 15 rebounds and six assists as he took whatever the defence gave him.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">What a play! Walton Jr with the sweet dish to Xavier Cooks as the <a href="https://twitter.com/SydneyKings?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@SydneyKings</a> continue to dominate against the <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NZBreakers</a> 45-27 at the major break. <br><br>Catch it all on ESPN <a href="https://t.co/ke7Rpt6udX">pic.twitter.com/ke7Rpt6udX</a></p>&mdash; ESPN Australia &amp; NZ (@ESPNAusNZ) <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ/status/1589104672614191105?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 6, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“He has a unique combination of speed and skill, combined with a very high basketball IQ,” Breakers coach Mody Maor said.

“He has a knack of finding the right space and the right spot, and every time you put him in a situation where there is a decision to make and the ball is in his hands, the ball goes to the right place.

“These are skills you usually see in high-level point guards. Will McDowell-White is exactly like that, if you put Will in a situation where there is a numbers (advantage) somewhere on the floor he’s going to sniff it out and the ball’s going to go there.

“It’s rare you see it in a forward. I think that’s what makes Xavier unique and I'm looking forward to playing against him again.”

In Round 16, Maor and Co found a way to limit the MVP, restricting him to 11 points on 10 shot attempts as Cooks left a bunch on the free-throw line.

However, Xavier still dished four dimes and was +6 in a five-point loss as the Kings scored 88 points, their equal-high against New Zealand this season.

It was the Breakers’ offence that proved the biggest difference as they broke their duck against the champs, the decision-making and touch of McDowell-White and the versatility of Brantley masterful.

That pair had a direct hand in 74 of their team’s 93 points, including scoring or assisting New Zealand’s final 26 points.

The WMW-JB combination toyed with Sydney’s defence, which failed to disrupt the ball-screen action early enough and paid the price by being reactive.

The Breakers’ dynamic duo dished seven of their 12 dimes in the opening three quarters to three-point shooters as the Kings sweated on Brantley and Pardon rolling to the basket.

Then, with the defence spread, McDowell-White and Brantley scored or assisted on 20 points from the paint or free-throw line in the final term.

“I thought they were a little too comfortable, we let them get comfortable,” Justin Simon said afterwards.

“The basket looked big for them and shots like that at the end go in when they feel comfortable and good about themselves.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">?? Seven points in 15 seconds<br>?? ???? banked three<br>?? A pure game-winning performance<br><br>Jarrell Brantley balled out last time he faced the Kings. Can he do it again in the Championship Series? ?<br><br>Live on ESPN via Kayo Freebies on Friday, March 3 from 7:30pm AEDT ? <a href="https://t.co/pQ5pc69qGm">pic.twitter.com/pQ5pc69qGm</a></p>&mdash; NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1630800400839479296?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 1, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Sydney’s inability to defend the Breakers’ methodical sets early in the game and again in the final term would be a point of worry for Kings’ fans, as would their own 40 per cent two-point conversion, but coach Buford was keeping things in perspective after the game.

Cooks, Walton and Simon went 13/31 on two-pointers (42%), well below their usual 59 per cent clip. In contrast, McDowell-White and Brantley shot 12/14 inside (86%), well above their season average of 51 per cent.

“I don’t think it’s cause for concern, the start hurt us again, spotting them a lead early and then playing catch-up is hard to do sometimes,” Buford said.

“I think we locked ourselves down, we missed more lay-ups and shots in the paint than they took. We missed 25 in the paint and they take 24, that’s not going to happen very often for us or any team.”

The Breakers defensive effort was no fluke though, they’ve allowed Sydney just 39.3 points per game in the paint, the only team to keep the champs below 40 across their season series.

Meanwhile, the Kings’ defensive lapses that afternoon were part of a wider trend that saw them concede 93 or more points in five of their final six games of the regular season, including three opposition centuries.

However, their stingy defence returned at the right moment as they held Cairns to only 64 points in Game 3, including eight in the final 12:30.

Kouat Noi revealed his side has placed a big focus on reproducing that in the season decider, knowing how important it is to generating their running game.

https://twitter.com/SydneyKings/status/1627144590384943105

“We’re not very impressed that we weren’t the best team to finish off the season,” he said.

“I feel like we’ve done so well defensively throughout the regular season, but this has been an emphasis for us this past week, making sure we’re back to the mentality we were at the start of the season.

“Going into this one I feel like we’re going to take it up a notch defensively, and we’re going to show New Zealand that we’re the best defensive team in this league.”

Not surprisingly, the Breakers aren’t buying into any talk about Sydney not being the benchmark.

“The term appropriate fear is something I approach every opponent with,” coach Maor said.

“It’s the grand final, you’re supposed to play a great team, and they’re definitely a great team. They’ve been there before, and they’ve been the best team all season.

“They have very straightforward characteristics ... you know exactly what you’re going to face from a pace standpoint and an offensive standpoint.”

Fittingly, the final word goes to the MVP, who is looking to repeat last season’s Larry Sengstock Medal performance and lead the Kings to back-to-back titles.

“Not many players get the chance to go for a championship, and to go back-to-back is pretty special,” Cooks said.

“I’m more prepared (than last season), I'm still just as nervous but I'm more prepared. I know what it takes to get over the line, I know how much effort it takes to get over the line.

“There’s a lot of pressure on every single play.”