Preview: New Zealand v Tasmania (Game 3)

When: 4pm (AEDT), Sunday 19 February, 2023
Where: Spark Arena, Auckland
Broadcast: Live & free on ESPN via Kayo Freebies, Live on SkySport (NZ)

Who won the last time?

Tasmania 89 (Doyle 23, McVeigh 16, Kenyon 11) d New Zealand 78 (Brown 19, Brantley 17, Pardon 15) – Game 2, MyState Bank Arena, Hobart

New Zealand looked the better team across the opening 28 minutes as the frontcourt of Jarell Brantley and Dererk Pardon outplayed their Tasmanian counterparts. Only buzzer-beating triples at the end of the opening two periods kept the JackJumpers within single figures as they seemingly had to fight and scrap for every single score up to that point.

But the prime-time shooting of Milton Doyle, Clint Steindl and Jack McVeigh turned the game, that trio scoring 22 points on 7/11 over the final 12 minutes. Tasmania won that stretch 34-18, their tireless defence throwing New Zealand out of their usually-clinical sets and into a string of uncharacteristic errors that allowed the JJs to control the run home.  

What’s working?

Starting and finishing well – The Breakers and JackJumpers have now met six times this season, and the losing team has not once taken the honours in the first or last quarter. After Thursday’s Game 2, where the JackJumpers were +11 in the first and fourth in an 11-point win, the victor is now +32 in opening terms and +49 in fourth periods.

With both teams playing with relentless physicality on D and executing with discipline offensively, playing from behind is exhausting and finding cheap points to bridge a late lead almost impossible. On Thursday, 13 of Tasmania’s 17 fourth-quarter shots came in the back-half of the shot clock or from o-boards as they managed their lead expertly.

Proactive D – It’s one thing to say you’ll deny opposition stars, push screeners off dangerous spots and proactively switch and double-switch off-ball screens, it’s another to do it for 40 minutes. Tassie went close to achieving that, and while it appeared fruitless when NZ had 60 points at 48 per cent late in the third, by the run home the JJs had worn them down.

Scott Roth’s men forced seven turnovers in the final 12 minutes and gave up just 8/22 (36%) shooting by making their Game 1 tormentor Will McDowell-White a non-factor, not allowing him into the paint once. The point maestro went 0/4 from the field in those 12 minutes and his only dime came with 28 seconds to play and the result beyond doubt.

What needs stopping?

Second chances – The downside of aggressively denying, hard showing and rotating is it opens up rebounding lanes, and Dererk Pardon and Jarell Brantley took full advantage of that on Thursday, combining for seven o-boards that they converted into 14 points, 12 in the second half. The JackJumpers perimeter men need to find the right balance between covering shooters and getting into box-out positions early when their team is in rotations.

Milton Doyle – How do you solve the problem of the ball not moving into Milton’s hands? Give it to him more to initiate the offence, and after taking nine shots in Game 1 he had 17 in the rematch. Scott Roth did a masterful job of manipulating who the screener was – and pre-screening the screener to get desired switches – while New Zealand were slow to react and get the ball out of Doyle’s hands early. Expect some adjustments to be made.

Who’s missing key men?

Josh Magette remains sidelined for the JackJumpers while New Zealand are expected to be at full strength.

Who’s matching up?

Jarell Brantley v Jack McVeigh & Rashard Kelly – Brantley had outscored this duo by himself at three-quarter-time in Game 2 and had a huge influence all over the floor. But with New Zealand’s offence interrupted in the final term he stopped getting good touches, scoring just two baskets off a tip-in and a turnover and cutting a frustrated figure down the stretch.

In contrast, McVeigh and Kelly made a huge impact late, combining for 13 points on 5/7 in the fourth period, while Rashard also added three rebounds, two assists and a block. The JackJumpers spaced the floor expertly down the stretch, placing McVeigh and Clint Steindl on the help-side of the floor and that pair scoring 10-straight points to seal the win.

Dererk Pardon v Will Magnay – A big reason Clint and McTrey got such good looks was the attention Doyle received and the composure of big Will on the short roll to find the open man. While his stat-line won’t be going straight to the Magnay pool room, his two points, two boards, two assists, a big block and quality screen defence in the final 7:30 were crucial.

If Tasmania are going to pinch Game 3 on the road, however, you suspect Magnay will need a monster interior game to prevent Pardon being a decisive factor. The relentless import has 30 points on 13/16 shooting, 20 rebounds, five steals and four blocks in the series to date, and will be placed in plenty of ball-screens with McDowell-White on Sunday.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The more things change, the more things stay the same. Will Magnay is back in action and protecting that paint ?<br><br>Catch the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL23?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL23</a> action live on ESPN via Kayo Sports and Foxtel. <a href="https://t.co/QMVN1Xex65">pic.twitter.com/QMVN1Xex65</a></p>&mdash; NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1593526130069295109?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 18, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Why was the JackJumpers’ Game 2 victory so impressive? Because of the opposition.

“They're very good. They're no joke, they're big and long and athletic and very, very solid defensively and one of the best defensive teams and best teams in general. We've struggled against them,” Scott Roth said post-game.

“But making shots opens up things and at least gives you confidence as you're going through the game and we were able to make a few more shots today.”

Tasmania’s offence has been on the back foot for much of this season series due to their defence being unable to consistently disrupt the Breakers and generate transition, which was certainly the case in Game 1.

The ability of Will McDowell-White, Izayah Le’afa and Barry Brown to make good decisions against their perimeter pressure and find Jarell Brantley and Dererk Pardon to exploit the interior has been clinical.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">How&#39;s this for a press breaker!? <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNBREAKABLE?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNBREAKABLE</a> <a href="https://t.co/Pb0vgrPvVS">pic.twitter.com/Pb0vgrPvVS</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1626148299064639489?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 16, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

With their playoff lives on the line on Thursday, however, the JackJumpers found a new level of intensity that the Kiwis couldn’t find a counter for.

“This group is quite relentless in their approach and that doesn’t always lead to winning but it does lead to an incredible effort. I thought tonight they were relentless on what we were trying to get done,” Roth said.

“Every time we've started over there (in Auckland) we've been on the back foot a little bit and I think today we were a little bit more on the front foot.

“I think we were en pointe with our jobs and knowing exactly what we were trying to accomplish and stayed with it for most of the 40 minutes.”

A key part of the was Milton Doyle, who gets deserved plaudits for his offensive exploits, but who also led the charge in denying return passes to McDowell-White so he couldn’t execute ball-screens, one of the most important factors in Tasmania’s win.

His two-way performance that produced 23 points, five assists and three steals – including seven points in the match-winning 15-2 run bridging three-quarter-time – was a post-season masterpiece that embodied the way his team respected every moment as crucial.

“Every possession becomes important and how you’re handling it and how you're recovering from a poor possession. We have a next job mentality with our group that we try to hang our hats on, let it go and get onto the next job,” Roth said.

“He’s a wonderful player and more important he’s a hell of a human being and he just fits this culture.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">MVP Candidate, former NBA player, psychic? ?<br><br>Mitch Creek went full Oracle on the call for this McVeigh three - get your volumes up for this one ?<br><br>Follow the action live on ESPN via Kayo Freebies ? <a href="https://t.co/8REG88eNWY">pic.twitter.com/8REG88eNWY</a></p>&mdash; NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1626147226975346688?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 16, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Barry Brown has been that clutch-moment man for New Zealand this season, and while he produced seven points in three minutes late to mount a mini-charge, he was left to rue his team not matching the JackJumpers possession-by-possession intensity.

“I think everybody for small stretches, even myself, were going with the flow out there, not really pulling us together at times I felt we needed to come together a bit more. It’s definitely something we want to clean up,” he said.

After Tasmania took his team out of their offence and then spread their defence far and wide in the final 12 minutes, Breakers coach Mody Maor knows he needs to clean some things up too.

“We've had a phenomenal regular season and by that I don’t mean the results, I mean we've been through everything … we've learned a lot, this is a new team so it was important we learned those lessons, now we need to implement them,” he said.

“(There’s) a bunch of things from a tactical standpoint that we can do better and we will do better with. Other than that there’s more fire in us, we’re better from an intensity standpoint most times.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Can we just take a moment to appreciate the size of this block ? <a href="https://twitter.com/jstuntbrantley?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@jstuntbrantley</a> <br><br>Jarrell had 3 steals &amp; 2 blocks on the night <br><br>Tickets to Sunday are ON SALE NOW: <a href="https://t.co/jw455M1IL6">https://t.co/jw455M1IL6</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNBREAKABLE?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNBREAKABLE</a> <a href="https://t.co/Af9e7sS7gq">pic.twitter.com/Af9e7sS7gq</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1626408591807897603?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 17, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Now, two clubs with an incredibly similar culture of representing their people with pride, playing the relentless physicality and an unselfish mindset will slug it out to stay alive in NBL23.

JackJumpers captain Clint Steindl has been in this situation plenty of times before with Tasmania and Perth, and had some words of wisdom for his team.

“If you want to win a championship you’ve got to win some road games and this is our opportunity to take a step forward,” he said.

“No doubt we’ll make changes to counter what they're doing and it’s how quick can you react to those? How quick can you implement them for them to be effective?

“We did a pretty solid job of that tonight, but it turns into a bit of a chess match these series, and it’s going to come down to who can adjust the quickest and who can get through the tough patches.”

For coach Maor, this game sums up why he moved half way around the globe to be a part of one of world’s best basketball leagues.

“We never expected it to be easy, these are the playoffs of the NBL. Every team that comes here is great, this is supposed to be high-level competition, you’re supposed to be challenged and tested and this is exactly what we’re looking forward to,” he said.

“We went through a really tough season and played well through a really tough season in order to earn home-court advantage, it’s a huge thing in playoffs, I'm happy to bring Game 3 to Spark (Arena) and I'm really looking forward to it.”