Preview: Brisbane v New Zealand (Round 17)

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Thursday 26 January, 2023
Where: Nissan Arena, Brisbane
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ
LIVE STATS AND BOX SCORE

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Who won last time?

New Zealand 116 (Brantley 29, Le’afa 21, Brown 17) d Brisbane 79 (Krebs 19, Sobey 14, Johnson 12) – Round 8 at Spark Arena, Auckland

If there was a lesson learned from this game, it was not change coaches late in the week whilst heading to New Zealand to take on Mody Maor’s Breakers. Sam Mackinnon’s brief stint in charge made a horror start with one of the most lopsided games in recent NBL history. Jarrell Brantley and Dererk Pardon ripped apart what was left of Brisbane’s interior defence as the Breakers led by 18 at half-time and 37 after 40 dominant minutes.

What happened last game?

The Bullets sputtered through an even bigger defeat under Greg Vanderjagt, suffering a 49-point to Sydney, but that was the darkest moment before the dawn. Since then they’ve run Melbourne to the line and then rolled off three-straight win, capped on Saturday by a 17-point triumph over Illawarra in Wollongong. New Zealand had lost four on the trot and were without Barry Brown and Izayah Le’afa, yet produced a win for the ages in Sydney as they grinded the Kings down to earn a narrow win in the final quarter.

What’s working?

Control – The Breakers kept Sydney to just 14 points at 38 per cent in the final eight minutes in their last clash, and they did that off the back of their offence. The Breakers’ final 20 half-court sets of the game featured an average of just 1.4 passes as they kept the ball in Will McDowell-White’s hands, resulting in the Kings creating only four scoring opportunities in the first half of the shot clock. Can the Bullets find a way to disrupt this methodical approach?

Owning the inside – Brisbane’s past four games have delivered 96ppg at 49 per cent from the field, after managing just 80.6ppg at 42 per cent in their previous eight. The biggest difference has been inside, where they’re now taking 68 per cent of their shots. The Bullets have upped their paint scoring from 40.3ppg to 48.5, while reducing opponents’ inside scores from 48.8 to 37.5 - changing their paint differential from -8.5 per game to +11 per contest.

What needs stopping?

Tyler Johnson – An inspired Johnson nailed 9/14 in the paint across his two Round 16 outings en route to 50 points at 59 per cent on twos, 46 per cent on threes and 12/16 from the stripe. The Bullets were +22 in his 56 minutes and +1 in the other 24 as the import guard also added 4.5rpg and 3.5apg while drawing 10 fouls, a team-high with Aron Baynes. His five contests since his vocal press conference in Melbourne have produced 20.6ppg at 49 per cent.  

Jarrell Brantley – Brantley feasted on the Bullets last time he played them with 29 points on 11/14 inside, eight rebounds and five assists. He took that to new levels against Sydney last round with 30 points on 5/6 in the paint, nine boards, five assists and three blocks. In five games without Barry Brown, the Breakers’ tough power forward has averaged 20.2ppg, 8rpg, 2.6spg and 2.4apg, New Zealand +19 with him on the floor and -30 in his bench time.

Who’s missing key men?

Brisbane will be without Jason Cadee, Tanner Krebs and Harry Froling, while Breakers Barry Brown and Izayah Le’afa face pre-game fitness tests.

Who’s matching up?

Aron Baynes v Dererk Pardon – It was always going to take a while, but the big Banger has arrived. Baynes has dropped 31 points at 67 per cent in 49 minutes in his past two contests as Brisbane has found its offensive rhythm. He’s also grabbed 17 boards which sets up a monster rebounding battle with Pardon, who ranks equal first in the NBL in offensive rebounds and second in second chance points. Last time, with Baynes sidelined, Pardon racked up 16 points on 7/8 shooting, all within two feet, but it will be a tougher task this time around.

Nathan Sobey v Will McDowell-White – Sobey's shot mightn’t have been dropping of late but he’s adapted to accumulate 12 assists in his past two games - and the Bullets +20 with their star guard on the floor. McDowell-White was dropping everything in Sydney, including Kings’ defenders strides, and finished with 20 points on 6/7 from mid-range to go with 10 assists. Can Sobey rewind the clock to his lockdown defender days and ride over Brantley and Pardon screens, because once McDowell-White gets space he’s creating good looks for himself or others.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Float package is strong ?‍??<br><br>Final minutes Sky Sport 3 <a href="https://t.co/9nZqPi03JY">pic.twitter.com/9nZqPi03JY</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1617052249552990209?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 22, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

They say it's better to be lucky than good, but the Breakers were both in Sydney last Sunday.

“It was how we drew it up exactly, iso versus the best defender and shoot it with the backboard, it was exactly the plan and it was perfect,” coach Mody Maor said with smile post-game.

While Brantley’s game-sealing banked triple was the memorable moment of New Zealand’s huge win over the ladder leaders, the man himself remembers much more.

“You can say it’s a big shot but it’s a lot of possessions that got us there, so it’s special just to see these guys, we all become who we are and we’re trying to be our best going down to March,” Brantley said.

The relentless power forward believes the four-game losing streak without Barry Brown has made his side more well-rounded, with Will McDowell-White leading a bunch of Breakers who have stepped up their games.

“I think in those losses we've been doing a lot of growing,” he said.

“I'm glad we put ourselves in a good position early (in the season), but you can learn a lot on those losses.

“Guys had to step up, Barry’s out, coach has been leaning on me a lot throughout the year but now we've got guys out, he’s been putting a lot on my shoulders and it’s been a blessing, honestly.

“Same with Will, were getting to see a special Will, I hit a big shot but Will made multiple big shots going down the stretch.

“It’s not just Will, it was everybody that played.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">What can&#39;t Jarrell do!? <a href="https://t.co/fRf8oXr1zd">pic.twitter.com/fRf8oXr1zd</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1617037704860172288?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 22, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Of course, the Breakers have epitomised ‘team’ this entire NBL23 season, while Brisbane certainly have not.

That’s all changed recently though, after the Bullets hit some serious depths against the Kings.

“After the Sydney game we did some soul searching and had a lot of discussions that next day as a group,” coach Greg Vanderjagt said.

“One of the big focuses for us is making other people better, what can you do for someone else? The screening, the sealing, the extra passes, the willingness to throw it out when you get two feet in the paint.

“Slowly over time we’re getting better at that, and playing these four games in eight days we've found a rhythm offensively, but what it’s been built on the back of is defence, it generates easy points, we get stops and we get run-outs.

“Just the easy points that we’ve generating that we weren’t generating earlier in the season, our offence felt like it was a hole all the time, every shot was a grind, every shot was contested.

“We’re getting more uncontested looks and it’s on the back of player and ball movement, unselfishness and being willing to do something for someone else.”

Now, with Brisbane’s array of bigs setting great screens, the likes of Tyler Johnson, Jason Cadee and Nathan Sobey have been racking up points inside the arc.

When they get shut down, they’ve been feeding their bigs on the roll to turn from paint bunnies to key warriors in recent games, with Baynes starting to rediscover the form that has helped him stand out in the Euroleague, NBA, World Cup and Olympics.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Bad day to be a rim ? @houseobayne <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RIVERCITYSTRONG?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#RIVERCITYSTRONG</a> <a href="https://t.co/oWy6LNRmxJ">pic.twitter.com/oWy6LNRmxJ</a></p>&mdash; Brisbane Bullets (@BrisbaneBullets) <a href="https://twitter.com/BrisbaneBullets/status/1616689585274355715?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 21, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“Offensively the ball did the work tonight, 27 assists on 39 made field goals with only 11 turnovers,” Vanderjagt said after the win over Illawarra.

“Something we made a focus of was to attack from the inside out, and Baynesy’s obviously a big part of that.

“His presence around the rim is huge, he just takes up so much space it’s hard to get around him, and if you do get around him someone else is laying it in because he’s created a driving lane for someone else.”

It was no surprise that new import Andrew White, who’s made a career as an efficient finisher, had his best game as a Bullet with 18 points at 73 per cent.

“Top-to-bottom the team played well and normally I'm a by-product of what my team is doing, so it’s good to get in rhythm,” he said.

As someone who walked into a messy situation, White is full of admiration for how his teammates and coaches have turned the tide.

“It shows a lot of character on our team’s part by sticking with it and having some pride,” he said.

“I've been here a month and just the support and the people behind the scenes that do a lot for us as a team and an organisation deserve the effort despite the record.”

The Breakers are playing for a lot more than pride, however, with top two still a chance after Cairns dropped two on the trot and missing the playoffs also still a real possibility.

This is New Zealand team built in the mould of their championship predecessors though, and if Brantley has his way this team will get the key wins needed on the road.

“A whole country is on our back, and this team has won a lot of ‘chips’,” he said.

“The guys before us did it so I think it’s our job to continue to do so … we’re just doing what everybody before us did.”